Tennis Statistics & Probability

First set betting: close-out rates, carry-through, and market context

When a pre-match favourite wins the first set, they close out the match 80.7% of the time — a 12-point boost over their baseline. But that number swings from 66% to 94% depending on their odds and the surface. Here's the full data-backed breakdown across 4,650 ATP matches.

The decisive set: third set & fifth set statistics that matter for bettors

How often do ATP matches go to a third or fifth set—and when they do, does the first-set winner usually close it? Real scorelines, Grand Slam vs tour splits, and what it means for set and live betting.

We analyzed 10,000 tennis matches: here's what we learned

Large-sample ATP study: what the Random Forest actually weights (odds, ranks, surface), how often lower-ranked players win by tier, and why H2H is thin at scale.