Player Profiles

Jannik Sinner ATP analysis: the rise of a prediction anomaly

Jannik Sinner has played 309 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 84.5% win rate. Data story: the prediction paradox — easiest elite to forecast, hardest to beat profitably.

Alexander Zverev ATP analysis: the consistent threat who defies betting markets

Alexander Zverev has played 313 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 74.1% win rate. Data story: reliable early-round favourite with a late-round ceiling the market still misprices.

Carlos Alcaraz ATP analysis: predicting the unpredictable

Carlos Alcaraz has played 298 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 85.9% win rate. Data story: elite win rate with real favourite-upset risk that markets compress.

Ben Shelton ATP analysis: top-20 profile and betting read

Ben Shelton has played 225 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 64.0% win rate. Data story: favourite conversion at 71.1% (28.9% upset risk).

Daniil Medvedev ATP analysis: top-20 profile and betting read

Daniil Medvedev has played 314 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 72.3% win rate. Data story: favourite conversion at 81.1% (18.9% upset risk).

Flavio Cobolli ATP analysis: top-20 profile and betting read

Flavio Cobolli has played 178 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 57.9% win rate. Data story: favourite conversion at 76.9% (23.1% upset risk).

Felix Auger-Aliassime ATP analysis: top-20 profile and betting read

Felix Auger-Aliassime has played 278 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 63.7% win rate. Data story: Indoors edge (78.9%) vs Grass at 54.5%.

Alex de Minaur ATP analysis: top-20 profile and betting read

Alex de Minaur has played 299 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 67.6% win rate. Data story: favourite conversion at 76.2% (23.8% upset risk).

Frances Tiafoe ATP analysis: top-20 profile and betting read

Frances Tiafoe has played 266 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 62.8% win rate. Data story: favourite conversion at 73.2% (26.8% upset risk).

Arthur Fils ATP analysis: top-20 profile and betting read

Arthur Fils has played 151 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 63.6% win rate. Data story: Hard edge (66.7%) vs Grass at 53.8%.

Rafael Jodar ATP analysis: top-20 profile and betting read

Rafael Jodar has played 59 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 71.2% win rate. Data story: Clay edge (82.1%) vs Indoors at 50.0%.

Novak Djokovic ATP analysis: top-20 profile and betting read

Novak Djokovic has played 209 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 81.8% win rate. Data story: favourite conversion at 87.1% (12.9% upset risk).

Holger Rune: the indoor specialist the market misprices on hard courts

Rune has played 230 matches at 64.8% across four seasons. His indoor win rate of 73.7% is one of the highest in the top 20, yet his outdoor hard-court rate of 60.4% sits well below average. Understanding that gap is the key to finding consistent value in his pricing.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: 58.5% form line in 2026 (41 matches)

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has played 239 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 54.0% overall win rate. The data story: 58.5% form line in 2026 (41 matches).

Taylor Fritz ATP analysis: top-20 profile and betting read

Taylor Fritz has played 298 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 69.8% win rate. Data story: favourite conversion at 74.9% (25.1% upset risk).

Tommy Paul: reliable favourite conversion at 78.0%

Tommy Paul has played 270 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 65.9% overall win rate. The data story: reliable favourite conversion at 78.0%.

Jakub Mensik ATP analysis: top-20 profile and betting read

Jakub Mensik has played 138 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 64.5% win rate. Data story: favourite conversion at 80.6% (19.4% upset risk).

Brandon Nakashima ATP analysis: top-20 profile and betting read

Brandon Nakashima has played 237 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 55.7% win rate. Data story: Grass edge (60.5%) vs Clay at 46.7%.

Learner Tien ATP analysis: top-20 profile and betting read

Learner Tien has played 115 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 60.9% win rate. Data story: Indoors edge (76.9%) vs Clay at 52.2%.

Alexander Bublik ATP analysis: ranks 21–50 profile and betting read

Alexander Bublik has played 238 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 56.3% win rate. Data story: Grass edge (68.0%) vs Hard at 46.1%.

Jiri Lehecka ATP analysis: top-20 profile and betting read

Jiri Lehecka has played 216 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 58.3% win rate. Data story: Hard edge (62.8%) vs Indoors at 48.0%.

Francisco Cerundolo: reliable favourite conversion at 70.0%

Francisco Cerundolo has played 328 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 55.5% overall win rate. The data story: reliable favourite conversion at 70.0%.

Andrey Rublev ATP analysis: consistency meets the quarter-final ceiling

Rublev is 13-0 at Grand Slam round 2 and 0-6 at Grand Slam quarter-finals. We analysed 253 matches (2022–2025) to find the structural pattern behind one of the most predictable round-ceilings in men's tennis — and the betting markets it consistently mis-prices.

Luciano Darderi ATP Analysis: Argentina's Clay Surgeon with a Hard Court Blind Spot

Darderi is the ATP tour's most extreme surface specialist: 66.7% on clay, 26.9% on hard. The 39.8 point surface gap is unprecedented at this level. The model runs two completely different probability sets depending on which surface he steps onto.

Casper Ruud ATP analysis: ranks 21–50 profile and betting read

Casper Ruud has played 266 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 66.5% win rate. Data story: favourite conversion at 70.4% (29.6% upset risk).

Karen Khachanov: reliable favourite conversion at 72.8%

Karen Khachanov has played 239 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 57.7% overall win rate. The data story: reliable favourite conversion at 72.8%.

Lorenzo Musetti ATP analysis: ranks 21–50 profile and betting read

Lorenzo Musetti has played 266 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 59.8% win rate. Data story: 64.5% form line in 2026 (31 matches).

Alexander Blockx: 58.6% form line in 2026 (29 matches)

Alexander Blockx has played 41 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 56.1% overall win rate. The data story: 58.6% form line in 2026 (29 matches).

Joao Fonseca: sharp early-round spike (69.7% in R1)

Joao Fonseca has played 89 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 59.6% overall win rate. The data story: sharp early-round spike (69.7% in R1).

Tomas Martin Etcheverry: reliable favourite conversion at 70.0%

Tomas Martin Etcheverry has played 199 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 46.7% overall win rate. The data story: reliable favourite conversion at 70.0%.

Hubert Hurkacz: the big-serving grass threat with a QF ceiling and a Djokovic problem

Hurkacz peaked at 81.8% in 2022 and has declined steadily to 62.5% in 2024 and 60.0% in 2025. His grass win rate (69.6%) and grass-court serve dominance make him a Wimbledon draw threat — but his 0-4 records against Djokovic and Alcaraz and 0-3 against Paul reveal a consistent ceiling.

Alejandro Tabilo: Clay specialist edge (56.6%) vs Indoors at 40.0%

Alejandro Tabilo has played 157 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 52.9% overall win rate. The data story: Clay specialist edge (56.6%) vs Indoors at 40.0%.

Valentin Vacherot: Hard specialist edge (64.0%) vs Clay at 40.0%

Valentin Vacherot has played 50 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 54.0% overall win rate. The data story: Hard specialist edge (64.0%) vs Clay at 40.0%.

Ignacio Buse: 55.3% form line in 2026 (38 matches)

Ignacio Buse has played 45 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 53.3% overall win rate. The data story: 55.3% form line in 2026 (38 matches).

Arthur Fery: 70.0% form line in 2026 (20 matches)

Arthur Fery has played 26 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 57.7% overall win rate. The data story: 70.0% form line in 2026 (20 matches).

Ugo Humbert: Indoors specialist edge (64.5%) vs Clay at 36.6%

Ugo Humbert has played 204 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 51.5% overall win rate. The data story: Indoors specialist edge (64.5%) vs Clay at 36.6%.

Matteo Arnaldi: reliable favourite conversion at 69.8%

Matteo Arnaldi has played 147 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 49.0% overall win rate. The data story: reliable favourite conversion at 69.8%.

Alex Michelsen: reliable favourite conversion at 72.2%

Alex Michelsen has played 147 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 51.7% overall win rate. The data story: reliable favourite conversion at 72.2%.

Botic van de Zandschulp: reliable favourite conversion at 66.7%

Botic van de Zandschulp has played 206 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 49.0% overall win rate. The data story: reliable favourite conversion at 66.7%.

Stefanos Tsitsipas: reliable favourite conversion at 74.9%

Stefanos Tsitsipas has played 260 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 64.6% overall win rate. The data story: reliable favourite conversion at 74.9%.

Cameron Norrie: reliable favourite conversion at 73.5%

Cameron Norrie has played 244 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 58.6% overall win rate. The data story: reliable favourite conversion at 73.5%.

Zizou Bergs: Grass specialist edge (52.2%) vs Indoors at 33.3%

Zizou Bergs has played 118 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 44.1% overall win rate. The data story: Grass specialist edge (52.2%) vs Indoors at 33.3%.

Daniel Merida Aguilar: 64.3% form line in 2026 (28 matches)

Daniel Merida Aguilar has played 28 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 64.3% overall win rate. The data story: 64.3% form line in 2026 (28 matches).

Matteo Berrettini: reliable favourite conversion at 73.4%

Matteo Berrettini has played 164 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 61.6% overall win rate. The data story: reliable favourite conversion at 73.4%.

Mariano Navone: Clay specialist edge (58.7%) vs Grass at 14.3%

Mariano Navone has played 115 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 47.8% overall win rate. The data story: Clay specialist edge (58.7%) vs Grass at 14.3%.

Quentin Halys: Clay specialist edge (59.4%) vs Indoors at 23.5%

Quentin Halys has played 134 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 43.3% overall win rate. The data story: Clay specialist edge (59.4%) vs Indoors at 23.5%.

Denis Shapovalov: Indoors specialist edge (61.3%) vs Grass at 38.5%

Denis Shapovalov has played 196 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 51.0% overall win rate. The data story: Indoors specialist edge (61.3%) vs Grass at 38.5%.

Luca Van Assche: Clay specialist edge (51.6%) vs Indoors at 14.3%

Luca Van Assche has played 65 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 38.5% overall win rate. The data story: Clay specialist edge (51.6%) vs Indoors at 14.3%.

Thiago Tirante: Hard specialist edge (61.1%) vs Indoors at 0.0%

Thiago Tirante has played 62 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 58.1% overall win rate. The data story: Hard specialist edge (61.1%) vs Indoors at 0.0%.

Jaume Munar: 42.3% form line in 2026 (26 matches)

Jaume Munar has played 186 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 46.2% overall win rate. The data story: 42.3% form line in 2026 (26 matches).

Nuno Borges: 64.1% favourite conversion vs a fourth-round cliff (26.3%)

Nuno Borges has played 176 ATP main-draw matches from 2022 to 2026 at a 49.4% overall win rate. The data story: reliable favourite conversion at 64.1%, but a persistent collapse at the fourth round (26.3%).

Raphaël Collignon: Clay specialist edge (52.6%) vs Grass at 33.3%

Raphaël Collignon has played 46 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 45.7% overall win rate. The data story: Clay specialist edge (52.6%) vs Grass at 33.3%.

Jan-Lennard Struff: reliable favourite conversion at 65.3%

Jan-Lennard Struff has played 150 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 48.0% overall win rate. The data story: reliable favourite conversion at 65.3%.

Arthur Rinderknech: 42.9% form line in 2026 (35 matches)

Arthur Rinderknech has played 181 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 45.3% overall win rate. The data story: 42.9% form line in 2026 (35 matches).

Ethan Quinn: Grass specialist edge (61.5%) vs Clay at 31.2%

Ethan Quinn has played 61 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 39.3% overall win rate. The data story: Grass specialist edge (61.5%) vs Clay at 31.2%.

Adrian Mannarino: reliable favourite conversion at 69.1%

Adrian Mannarino has played 200 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 46.0% overall win rate. The data story: reliable favourite conversion at 69.1%.

Sebastian Korda: hard-court threat with a third-round collapse and a clay floor

Korda has played 170 matches across four seasons with gradual improvement, peaking at 66.7% in 2025. His 76.7% R1 and 70.6% R2 conversion contrast sharply with a 22.2% R3 win rate — a pattern unlike any other in the top-20 dataset.

Corentin Moutet: reliable favourite conversion at 69.7%

Corentin Moutet has played 152 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 45.4% overall win rate. The data story: reliable favourite conversion at 69.7%.

Terence Atmane: Hard specialist edge (50.0%) vs Indoors at 0.0%

Terence Atmane has played 67 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026 at a 40.3% overall win rate. The data story: Hard specialist edge (50.0%) vs Indoors at 0.0%.

Grigor Dimitrov: the 2024 breakout player whose SF wall defines the ceiling

Dimitrov hit 76.9% in 2024 — his best season in the dataset. But behind the headline numbers: a 30.0% SF win rate across 10 appearances and a combined 0-15 record against four specific elite opponents. Here is where to back and fade the Bulgarian veteran.