Stefanos Tsitsipas: reliable favourite conversion at 74.9%

Stefanos Tsitsipas ranks 49 in the ATP (August 2026 snapshot) and has played 260 ATP main-draw matches in our database from 2022–2026. The headline number — 64.6% overall win rate — frames a clear mid-tier profile, but the 51.2% mark in 2026 (41 matches) is the current form anchor. The paradox worth betting on: reliable favourite conversion at 74.9%.

Key metrics at a glance

Metric	Value
Overall win rate	64.6%
ATP rank (snapshot)	49
Matches analysed	260 (2022–2026)
Best surface	Clay — 73.2%
Weakest surface	Grass — 55.2%
Grand Slam win rate	66.1% (37–19)
As favourite	74.9% (n=167)
As underdog	34.1% (n=44)

Tsitsipas's year-by-year record

Year	Matches	Wins	Win rate
2022	79	57	72.2%
2023	55	37	67.3%
2024	49	33	67.3%
2025	36	20	55.6%
2026	41	21	51.2%

Win rate by season, Stefanos Tsitsipas, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Year-to-year movement shows where the market should update fastest. The favourite conversion at 74.9% and the year table are the primary form anchors for live pricing — not a single career average.

Surface breakdown: where the edge lives

Surface	Matches	Win rate
Hard	102	58.8%
Clay	97	73.2%
Indoors	32	65.6%
Grass	29	55.2%

Win rate by surface, Stefanos Tsitsipas, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Surface is the first filter before round or opponent quality. Compare clay baselines in the clay-court betting guide and grass patterns in the grass-court specificity guide when translating these rates into match previews.

Tournament tier: reliability by event level

Tournament level	Matches	Win rate
Grand Slam	56	66.1%
ATP 500	81	65.4%
Masters 1000	102	63.7%
ATP 250	21	61.9%

Win rate by tournament tier, Stefanos Tsitsipas, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Grand Slam and Masters samples matter most for pricing; ATP 250/500 volume often inflates or deflates the headline win rate. Cross-check against Casper Ruud or Francisco Cerundolo for other ranks-21–50 archetypes.

Round-by-round: early rounds vs deep runs

Round	Matches	Win rate
R1	54	72.2%
R2	55	67.3%
R3	24	66.7%
R16	55	61.8%
QF	34	61.8%
SF	21	66.7%
F	14	42.9%

Win rate by round, Stefanos Tsitsipas, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Round curves separate true closers from early-round specialists. Use the drop from early rounds into deeper stages as a fade signal even when the overall win rate looks acceptable — the same structural idea as Rublev's late-round ceiling.

H2H against elite rivals

Rival	W–L	Win rate
De Minaur	6–2	75.0%
Medvedev	3–3	50.0%
Djokovic	0–6	0.0%
Musetti	3–2	60.0%
Sinner	4–1	80.0%

Elite H2H is sparse for many mid-ranked players; only rows with multiple meetings are shown. Use these as matchup modifiers, not as a substitute for surface form.

Favourite vs underdog split

Role	Matches	Win rate
Favourite	167	74.9%
Underdog	44	34.1%

Favourite vs underdog win rate, Stefanos Tsitsipas, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match odds via tennispredictor.net

What the betting market misses about Stefanos Tsitsipas

Back Stefanos Tsitsipas when:

• on clay (73.2% over 97 matches)
• when priced as favourite (74.9% conversion, n=167)
• in first-round spots (72.2% over 54 matches)

Fade Stefanos Tsitsipas when:

• on grass (55.2%)
• against top-tier opponents with repeated negative H2H (e.g. Djokovic 0–6)

For live slate context, open the predictions dashboard rather than relying on a static profile alone.

How our model treats Stefanos Tsitsipas

The ensemble weights surface win-rate history, recent form (last 5 / last 10), and tournament-tier context most heavily for a rank-21–50 profile like this. Favourite/underdog conversion is a secondary prior when odds history is dense enough (here: 211 matches with usable prices). Uncertainty rises when the next match is on grass or in a deep-draw round where Tsitsipas's historical conversion collapses.

Frequently asked questions

What is Stefanos Tsitsipas's overall win rate in this study?

64.6% across 260 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026.

Which surface shows the highest win rate?

Clay at 73.2% (97 matches).

How often does Stefanos Tsitsipas win when installed as favourite?

74.9% over 167 favourite-priced matches in the cache (usable odds only).

How does Stefanos Tsitsipas perform at Grand Slams vs regular events?

Grand Slam win rate is 66.1% (37–19), versus 64.6% overall.

Who is Stefanos Tsitsipas's toughest matchup in the data?

Among repeated elite meetings: Djokovic (0–6).

When is Stefanos Tsitsipas worth backing or fading based on this data?

Back when on clay (73.2% over 97 matches) / when priced as favourite (74.9% conversion, n=167) / in first-round spots (72.2% over 54 matches). Fade when on grass (55.2%) / against top-tier opponents with repeated negative H2H (e.g. Djokovic 0–6).

How reliable are these statistics given the sample size?

260 matches is a standard profile sample; surface and favourite splits with n≥15 are the most trustworthy rows.

How does your model handle Stefanos Tsitsipas's surface and form swings?

It re-weights recent surface form and does not treat the career overall win rate as a constant prior when the year-by-year table shows large swings (notably the 2026 line at 51.2%).

Conclusion

Stefanos Tsitsipas at ATP #49 is a ranks-21–50 profile defined by 64.6% overall and reliable favourite conversion at 74.9%. The actionable reads are the surface table, the favourite conversion, the 2026 form line, and the round curve — not the ranking alone.

Watch the North American hard-court swing and any surface-specific weeks to confirm whether current form holds. For related mid-tier profiles, see Casper Ruud and Matteo Berrettini.