Francisco Cerundolo: reliable favourite conversion at 70.0%

Francisco Cerundolo ranks 25 in the ATP (August 2026 snapshot) and has played 328 ATP main-draw matches in our database from 2022–2026. The headline number — 55.5% overall win rate — frames a clear mid-tier profile, but the 58.6% mark in 2026 (87 matches) shows a live uptick. The paradox worth betting on: reliable favourite conversion at 70.0%.

Key metrics at a glance

Metric	Value
Overall win rate	55.5%
ATP rank (snapshot)	25
Matches analysed	328 (2022–2026)
Best surface	Clay — 59.4%
Weakest surface	Grass — 50.0%
Grand Slam win rate	50.0% (25–25)
As favourite	70.0% (n=90)
As underdog	40.0% (n=145)

Cerundolo's year-by-year record

Year	Matches	Wins	Win rate
2022	51	26	51.0%
2023	65	35	53.8%
2024	50	26	52.0%
2025	75	44	58.7%
2026	87	51	58.6%

Win rate by season, Francisco Cerundolo, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Year-to-year movement shows where the market should update fastest. The favourite conversion at 70.0% and the year table are the primary form anchors for live pricing — not a single career average.

Surface breakdown: where the edge lives

Surface	Matches	Win rate
Clay	180	59.4%
Hard	104	51.0%
Grass	28	50.0%
Indoors	16	50.0%

Win rate by surface, Francisco Cerundolo, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Surface is the first filter before round or opponent quality. Compare clay baselines in the clay-court betting guide and grass patterns in the grass-court specificity guide when translating these rates into match previews.

Tournament tier: reliability by event level

Tournament level	Matches	Win rate
ATP 500	100	62.0%
Masters 1000	104	55.8%
Grand Slam	50	50.0%
ATP 250	74	50.0%

Win rate by tournament tier, Francisco Cerundolo, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Grand Slam and Masters samples matter most for pricing; ATP 250/500 volume often inflates or deflates the headline win rate. Cross-check against Tommy Paul or Tomas Martin Etcheverry for other ranks-21–50 archetypes.

Round-by-round: early rounds vs deep runs

Round	Matches	Win rate
R1	108	56.5%
R2	55	63.6%
R3	31	54.8%
R16	70	54.3%
QF	38	50.0%
SF	19	36.8%
F	7	71.4%

Win rate by round, Francisco Cerundolo, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Round curves separate true closers from early-round specialists. Use the drop from early rounds into deeper stages as a fade signal even when the overall win rate looks acceptable — the same structural idea as Rublev's late-round ceiling.

H2H against elite rivals

Rival	W–L	Win rate
Hanfmann	8–2	80.0%
Ruud	5–4	55.6%
Darderi	5–4	55.6%
Sinner	4–4	50.0%
Paul	6–2	75.0%

Elite H2H is sparse for many mid-ranked players; only rows with multiple meetings are shown. Use these as matchup modifiers, not as a substitute for surface form.

Favourite vs underdog split

Role	Matches	Win rate
Favourite	90	70.0%
Underdog	145	40.0%

Favourite vs underdog win rate, Francisco Cerundolo, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match odds via tennispredictor.net

What the betting market misses about Francisco Cerundolo

Back Francisco Cerundolo when:

• on clay (59.4% over 180 matches)
• when priced as favourite (70.0% conversion, n=90)
• in first-round spots (56.5% over 108 matches)
• during strong 2026 form (58.6% over 87 matches)

Fade Francisco Cerundolo when:

• on grass (50.0%)

For live slate context, open the predictions dashboard rather than relying on a static profile alone.

How our model treats Francisco Cerundolo

The ensemble weights surface win-rate history, recent form (last 5 / last 10), and tournament-tier context most heavily for a rank-21–50 profile like this. Favourite/underdog conversion is a secondary prior when odds history is dense enough (here: 235 matches with usable prices). Uncertainty rises when the next match is on grass or in a deep-draw round where Cerundolo's historical conversion collapses.

Frequently asked questions

What is Francisco Cerundolo's overall win rate in this study?

55.5% across 328 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026.

Which surface shows the highest win rate?

Clay at 59.4% (180 matches).

How often does Francisco Cerundolo win when installed as favourite?

70.0% over 90 favourite-priced matches in the cache (usable odds only).

How does Francisco Cerundolo perform at Grand Slams vs regular events?

Grand Slam win rate is 50.0% (25–25), versus 55.5% overall.

Who is Francisco Cerundolo's toughest matchup in the data?

Among repeated elite meetings: Sinner (4–4).

When is Francisco Cerundolo worth backing or fading based on this data?

Back when on clay (59.4% over 180 matches) / when priced as favourite (70.0% conversion, n=90) / in first-round spots (56.5% over 108 matches). Fade when on grass (50.0%).

How reliable are these statistics given the sample size?

328 matches is a standard profile sample; surface and favourite splits with n≥15 are the most trustworthy rows.

How does your model handle Francisco Cerundolo's surface and form swings?

It re-weights recent surface form and does not treat the career overall win rate as a constant prior when the year-by-year table shows large swings (notably the 2026 line at 58.6%).

Conclusion

Francisco Cerundolo at ATP #25 is a ranks-21–50 profile defined by 55.5% overall and reliable favourite conversion at 70.0%. The actionable reads are the surface table, the favourite conversion, the 2026 form line, and the round curve — not the ranking alone.

Watch the North American hard-court swing and any surface-specific weeks to confirm whether current form holds. For related mid-tier profiles, see Mariano Navone and Casper Ruud.