Karen Khachanov: reliable favourite conversion at 72.8%

Karen Khachanov ranks 39 in the ATP (August 2026 snapshot) and has played 239 ATP main-draw matches in our database from 2022–2026. The headline number — 57.7% overall win rate — frames a clear mid-tier profile, but the 48.6% mark in 2026 (37 matches) is the current form anchor. The paradox worth betting on: reliable favourite conversion at 72.8%.

Key metrics at a glance

Metric	Value
Overall win rate	57.7%
ATP rank (snapshot)	39
Matches analysed	239 (2022–2026)
Best surface	Clay — 61.3%
Weakest surface	Hard — 54.9%
Grand Slam win rate	69.6% (39–17)
As favourite	72.8% (n=125)
As underdog	36.0% (n=75)

Khachanov's year-by-year record

Year	Matches	Wins	Win rate
2022	62	37	59.7%
2023	37	23	62.2%
2024	47	28	59.6%
2025	56	32	57.1%
2026	37	18	48.6%

Win rate by season, Karen Khachanov, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Year-to-year movement shows where the market should update fastest. The favourite conversion at 72.8% and the year table are the primary form anchors for live pricing — not a single career average.

Surface breakdown: where the edge lives

Surface	Matches	Win rate
Hard	113	54.9%
Clay	75	61.3%
Indoors	26	57.7%
Grass	25	60.0%

Win rate by surface, Karen Khachanov, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Surface is the first filter before round or opponent quality. Compare clay baselines in the clay-court betting guide and grass patterns in the grass-court specificity guide when translating these rates into match previews.

Tournament tier: reliability by event level

Tournament level	Matches	Win rate
Grand Slam	56	69.6%
ATP 250	35	57.1%
Masters 1000	82	54.9%
ATP 500	66	51.5%

Win rate by tournament tier, Karen Khachanov, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Grand Slam and Masters samples matter most for pricing; ATP 250/500 volume often inflates or deflates the headline win rate. Cross-check against Andrey Rublev or Tommy Paul for other ranks-21–50 archetypes.

Round-by-round: early rounds vs deep runs

Round	Matches	Win rate
R1	59	71.2%
R2	50	72.0%
R3	29	51.7%
R16	58	46.6%
QF	27	44.4%
SF	12	33.3%
F	4	50.0%

Win rate by round, Karen Khachanov, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Round curves separate true closers from early-round specialists. Use the drop from early rounds into deeper stages as a fade signal even when the overall win rate looks acceptable — the same structural idea as Rublev's late-round ceiling.

H2H against elite rivals

Rival	W–L	Win rate
Cerundolo	7–0	100.0%
Alcaraz	0–6	0.0%
Djokovic	0–5	0.0%
Tsitsipas	1–4	20.0%
Bautista-Agut	4–1	80.0%

Elite H2H is sparse for many mid-ranked players; only rows with multiple meetings are shown. Use these as matchup modifiers, not as a substitute for surface form.

Favourite vs underdog split

Role	Matches	Win rate
Favourite	125	72.8%
Underdog	75	36.0%

Favourite vs underdog win rate, Karen Khachanov, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match odds via tennispredictor.net

What the betting market misses about Karen Khachanov

Back Karen Khachanov when:

• on clay (61.3% over 75 matches)
• when priced as favourite (72.8% conversion, n=125)
• in first-round spots (71.2% over 59 matches)

Fade Karen Khachanov when:

• on hard (54.9%)
• in R16 or later (46.6% at R16)
• against top-tier opponents with repeated negative H2H (e.g. Alcaraz 0–6)

For live slate context, open the predictions dashboard rather than relying on a static profile alone.

How our model treats Karen Khachanov

The ensemble weights surface win-rate history, recent form (last 5 / last 10), and tournament-tier context most heavily for a rank-21–50 profile like this. Favourite/underdog conversion is a secondary prior when odds history is dense enough (here: 200 matches with usable prices). Uncertainty rises when the next match is on hard or in a deep-draw round where Khachanov's historical conversion collapses.

Frequently asked questions

What is Karen Khachanov's overall win rate in this study?

57.7% across 239 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026.

Which surface shows the highest win rate?

Clay at 61.3% (75 matches).

How often does Karen Khachanov win when installed as favourite?

72.8% over 125 favourite-priced matches in the cache (usable odds only).

How does Karen Khachanov perform at Grand Slams vs regular events?

Grand Slam win rate is 69.6% (39–17), versus 57.7% overall.

Who is Karen Khachanov's toughest matchup in the data?

Among repeated elite meetings: Alcaraz (0–6).

When is Karen Khachanov worth backing or fading based on this data?

Back when on clay (61.3% over 75 matches) / when priced as favourite (72.8% conversion, n=125) / in first-round spots (71.2% over 59 matches). Fade when on hard (54.9%) / in R16 or later (46.6% at R16).

How reliable are these statistics given the sample size?

239 matches is a standard profile sample; surface and favourite splits with n≥15 are the most trustworthy rows.

How does your model handle Karen Khachanov's surface and form swings?

It re-weights recent surface form and does not treat the career overall win rate as a constant prior when the year-by-year table shows large swings (notably the 2026 line at 48.6%).

Conclusion

Karen Khachanov at ATP #39 is a ranks-21–50 profile defined by 57.7% overall and reliable favourite conversion at 72.8%. The actionable reads are the surface table, the favourite conversion, the 2026 form line, and the round curve — not the ranking alone.

Watch the North American hard-court swing and any surface-specific weeks to confirm whether current form holds. For related mid-tier profiles, see Andrey Rublev and Daniil Medvedev.