Quentin Halys: Clay specialist edge (59.4%) vs Indoors at 23.5%

Quentin Halys ranks #48 in the ATP (October 2026 snapshot) and has played 134 ATP main-draw matches in our database from 2022–2026. The headline number — 43.3% overall win rate — frames a clear mid-tier profile, but the 54.8% mark in 2026 (42 matches) shows a live uptick. The paradox worth betting on: Clay specialist edge (59.4%) vs Indoors at 23.5%.

Key metrics at a glance

Metric	Value
Overall win rate	43.3%
ATP rank (snapshot)	48
Matches analysed	134 (2022–2026)
Best surface	Clay — 59.4%
Weakest surface	Indoors — 23.5%
Grand Slam win rate	43.8% (14–18)
As favourite	64.7% (n=34)
As underdog	33.3% (n=57)

Halys's year-by-year record

Year	Matches	Wins	Win rate
2022	14	3	21.4%
2023	28	12	42.9%
2024	14	8	57.1%
2025	36	12	33.3%
2026	42	23	54.8%

Win rate by season, Quentin Halys, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Year-to-year movement shows where the market should update fastest. The Clay edge vs Indoors floor and the year table are the primary form anchors for live pricing — not a single career average.

Surface breakdown: where the edge lives

Surface	Matches	Win rate
Hard	62	40.3%
Clay	32	59.4%
Grass	23	43.5%
Indoors	17	23.5%

Win rate by surface, Quentin Halys, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Surface is the first filter before round or opponent quality. Compare clay baselines in the clay-court betting guide and grass patterns in the grass-court specificity guide when translating these rates into match previews.

Tournament tier: reliability by event level

Tournament level	Matches	Win rate
ATP 250	31	48.4%
Masters 1000	26	46.2%
Grand Slam	32	43.8%
ATP 500	45	37.8%

Win rate by tournament tier, Quentin Halys, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Grand Slam and Masters samples matter most for pricing; ATP 250/500 volume often inflates or deflates the headline win rate. Cross-check against Ugo Humbert or Arthur Rinderknech for other ranks-21–50 archetypes.

Round-by-round: early rounds vs deep runs

Round	Matches	Win rate
R1	74	48.6%
R2	20	35.0%
R3	7	28.6%
R16	21	33.3%
QF	7	42.9%
SF	3	66.7%
F	2	50.0%

Win rate by round, Quentin Halys, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Round curves separate true closers from early-round specialists. Use the drop from early rounds into deeper stages as a fade signal even when the overall win rate looks acceptable — the same structural idea as Rublev's late-round ceiling.

H2H against elite rivals

Rival	W–L	Win rate
Zverev	0–4	0.0%
Basilashvili	0–3	0.0%
Popyrin	3–0	100.0%
Bonzi	1–2	33.3%
Medvedev	0–3	0.0%

Elite H2H is sparse for many mid-ranked players; only rows with multiple meetings are shown. Use these as matchup modifiers, not as a substitute for surface form.

Favourite vs underdog split

Role	Matches	Win rate
Favourite	34	64.7%
Underdog	57	33.3%

Favourite vs underdog win rate, Quentin Halys, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match odds via tennispredictor.net

What the betting market misses about Quentin Halys

Back Quentin Halys when:

• on clay (59.4% over 32 matches)
• when priced as favourite (64.7% conversion, n=34)
• in first-round spots (48.6% over 74 matches)
• during strong 2026 form (54.8% over 42 matches)

Fade Quentin Halys when:

• on indoors (23.5%)
• in R16 or later (33.3% at R16)
• against top-tier opponents with repeated negative H2H (e.g. Zverev 0–4)

For live slate context, open the predictions dashboard rather than relying on a static profile alone.

How our model treats Quentin Halys

The ensemble weights surface win-rate history, recent form (last 5 / last 10), and tournament-tier context most heavily for a rank-21–50 profile like this. Favourite/underdog conversion is a secondary prior when odds history is dense enough (here: 91 matches with usable prices). Uncertainty rises when the next match is on indoors or in a deep-draw round where Halys's historical conversion collapses.

Frequently asked questions

What is Quentin Halys's overall win rate in this study?

43.3% across 134 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026.

Which surface shows the highest win rate?

Clay at 59.4% (32 matches).

How often does Quentin Halys win when installed as favourite?

64.7% over 34 favourite-priced matches in the cache (usable odds only).

How does Quentin Halys perform at Grand Slams vs regular events?

Grand Slam win rate is 43.8% (14–18), versus 43.3% overall.

Who is Quentin Halys's toughest matchup in the data?

Among repeated elite meetings: Zverev (0–4).

When is Quentin Halys worth backing or fading based on this data?

Back when on clay (59.4% over 32 matches) / when priced as favourite (64.7% conversion, n=34) / in first-round spots (48.6% over 74 matches). Fade when on indoors (23.5%) / in R16 or later (33.3% at R16).

How reliable are these statistics given the sample size?

134 matches is a standard profile sample; surface and favourite splits with n≥15 are the most trustworthy rows.

How does your model handle Quentin Halys's surface and form swings?

It re-weights recent surface form and does not treat the career overall win rate as a constant prior when the year-by-year table shows large swings (notably the 2026 line at 54.8%).

Conclusion

Quentin Halys at ATP #48 is a ranks-21–50 profile defined by 43.3% overall and Clay specialist edge (59.4%) vs Indoors at 23.5%. The actionable reads are the surface table, the favourite conversion, the 2026 form line, and the round curve — not the ranking alone.

Watch the North American hard-court swing and any surface-specific weeks to confirm whether current form holds. For related mid-tier profiles, see Luca Van Assche and Adrian Mannarino.