Adrian Mannarino: reliable favourite conversion at 69.1%

Adrian Mannarino ranks 52 in the ATP (August 2026 snapshot) and has played 200 ATP main-draw matches in our database from 2022–2026. The headline number — 46.0% overall win rate — frames a clear mid-tier profile, but the 37.5% mark in 2026 (40 matches) is the current form anchor. The paradox worth betting on: reliable favourite conversion at 69.1%.

Key metrics at a glance

Metric	Value
Overall win rate	46.0%
ATP rank (snapshot)	52
Matches analysed	200 (2022–2026)
Best surface	Grass — 55.8%
Weakest surface	Clay — 13.6%
Grand Slam win rate	50.0% (18–18)
As favourite	69.1% (n=55)
As underdog	38.2% (n=102)

Mannarino's year-by-year record

Year	Matches	Wins	Win rate
2022	52	26	50.0%
2023	47	26	55.3%
2024	33	12	36.4%
2025	28	13	46.4%
2026	40	15	37.5%

Win rate by season, Adrian Mannarino, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Year-to-year movement shows where the market should update fastest. The favourite conversion at 69.1% and the year table are the primary form anchors for live pricing — not a single career average.

Surface breakdown: where the edge lives

Surface	Matches	Win rate
Hard	102	47.1%
Grass	43	55.8%
Indoors	33	51.5%
Clay	22	13.6%

Win rate by surface, Adrian Mannarino, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Surface is the first filter before round or opponent quality. Compare clay baselines in the clay-court betting guide and grass patterns in the grass-court specificity guide when translating these rates into match previews.

Tournament tier: reliability by event level

Tournament level	Matches	Win rate
ATP 250	67	50.7%
Grand Slam	36	50.0%
ATP 500	53	43.4%
Masters 1000	44	38.6%

Win rate by tournament tier, Adrian Mannarino, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Grand Slam and Masters samples matter most for pricing; ATP 250/500 volume often inflates or deflates the headline win rate. Cross-check against Tommy Paul or Francisco Cerundolo for other ranks-21–50 archetypes.

Round-by-round: early rounds vs deep runs

Round	Matches	Win rate
R1	94	47.9%
R2	29	41.4%
R3	10	50.0%
R16	38	50.0%
QF	19	36.8%
SF	7	42.9%
F	3	33.3%

Win rate by round, Adrian Mannarino, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Round curves separate true closers from early-round specialists. Use the drop from early rounds into deeper stages as a fade signal even when the overall win rate looks acceptable — the same structural idea as Rublev's late-round ceiling.

H2H against elite rivals

Rival	W–L	Win rate
De Minaur	1–6	14.3%
Medvedev	1–4	20.0%
Thompson	3–2	60.0%
Shelton	3–2	60.0%
Van De Zandschulp	1–3	25.0%

Elite H2H is sparse for many mid-ranked players; only rows with multiple meetings are shown. Use these as matchup modifiers, not as a substitute for surface form.

Favourite vs underdog split

Role	Matches	Win rate
Favourite	55	69.1%
Underdog	102	38.2%

Favourite vs underdog win rate, Adrian Mannarino, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match odds via tennispredictor.net

What the betting market misses about Adrian Mannarino

Back Adrian Mannarino when:

• on grass (55.8% over 43 matches)
• when priced as favourite (69.1% conversion, n=55)
• in first-round spots (47.9% over 94 matches)

Fade Adrian Mannarino when:

• on clay (13.6%)
• against top-tier opponents with repeated negative H2H (e.g. De Minaur 1–6)

For live slate context, open the predictions dashboard rather than relying on a static profile alone.

How our model treats Adrian Mannarino

The ensemble weights surface win-rate history, recent form (last 5 / last 10), and tournament-tier context most heavily for a rank-21–50 profile like this. Favourite/underdog conversion is a secondary prior when odds history is dense enough (here: 157 matches with usable prices). Uncertainty rises when the next match is on clay or in a deep-draw round where Mannarino's historical conversion collapses.

Frequently asked questions

What is Adrian Mannarino's overall win rate in this study?

46.0% across 200 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026.

Which surface shows the highest win rate?

Grass at 55.8% (43 matches).

How often does Adrian Mannarino win when installed as favourite?

69.1% over 55 favourite-priced matches in the cache (usable odds only).

How does Adrian Mannarino perform at Grand Slams vs regular events?

Grand Slam win rate is 50.0% (18–18), versus 46.0% overall.

Who is Adrian Mannarino's toughest matchup in the data?

Among repeated elite meetings: De Minaur (1–6).

When is Adrian Mannarino worth backing or fading based on this data?

Back when on grass (55.8% over 43 matches) / when priced as favourite (69.1% conversion, n=55) / in first-round spots (47.9% over 94 matches). Fade when on clay (13.6%) / against top-tier opponents with repeated negative H2H (e.g. De Minaur 1–6).

How reliable are these statistics given the sample size?

200 matches is a standard profile sample; surface and favourite splits with n≥15 are the most trustworthy rows.

How does your model handle Adrian Mannarino's surface and form swings?

It re-weights recent surface form and does not treat the career overall win rate as a constant prior when the year-by-year table shows large swings (notably the 2026 line at 37.5%).

Conclusion

Adrian Mannarino at ATP #52 is a ranks-21–50 profile defined by 46.0% overall and reliable favourite conversion at 69.1%. The actionable reads are the surface table, the favourite conversion, the 2026 form line, and the round curve — not the ranking alone.

Watch the North American hard-court swing and any surface-specific weeks to confirm whether current form holds. For related mid-tier profiles, see Ugo Humbert and Tommy Paul.