Adrian Mannarino: Grass specialist edge (53.3%) vs Clay at 21.4%

Adrian Mannarino ranks 49 in the ATP (July 2026 snapshot) and has played 174 ATP main-draw matches in our database from 2022 to 2026. The headline number — 47.7% overall win rate — frames a clear mid-tier profile. The paradox worth betting on: Grass specialist edge (53.3%) vs Clay at 21.4%.

Key metrics at a glance

Metric	Value
Overall win rate	47.7%
ATP rank (snapshot)	49
Matches analysed	174 (2022–2026)
Best surface	Grass — 53.3%
Weakest surface	Clay — 21.4%
Grand Slam win rate	51.5% (17–16)
As favourite	68.6% (n=51)
As underdog	38.1% (n=97)

Mannarino's year-by-year record

Year	Matches	Wins	Win rate
2022	52	26	50.0%
2023	47	26	55.3%
2024	33	12	36.4%
2025	28	13	46.4%
2026	14	6	42.9%

Win rate by season, Adrian Mannarino, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Year-to-year movement shows where the market should update fastest. Peak and trough seasons above are the primary form anchors for live pricing — not a single career average.

Surface breakdown: where the edge lives

Surface	Matches	Win rate
Grass	30	53.3%
Indoors	33	51.5%
Hard	97	48.5%
Clay	14	21.4%

Win rate by surface, Adrian Mannarino, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Surface is the first filter before round or opponent quality. Compare clay baselines in the clay-court betting guide and grass patterns in the grass-court specificity guide when translating these rates into match previews.

Tournament tier: reliability by event level

Tournament level	Matches	Win rate
Grand Slam	33	51.5%
Masters 1000	43	44.2%
ATP 500	15	20.0%
ATP 250	83	53.0%

Win rate by tournament tier, Adrian Mannarino, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Grand Slam and Masters samples matter most for pricing; ATP 250/500 volume often inflates or deflates the headline win rate. Cross-check against Tommy Paul or Francisco Cerundolo for other ranks-21–50 archetypes.

Round-by-round: early rounds vs deep runs

Round	Matches	Win rate
1R	112	50.9%
2R	27	44.4%
3R	10	50.0%
QF	17	29.4%
SF	5	60.0%
F	3	33.3%

Win rate by round, Adrian Mannarino, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Round curves separate true closers from early-round specialists. A drop at QF/SF is a fade signal even when the overall win rate looks healthy — the same structural idea as Rublev's late-round ceiling.

H2H against elite rivals

Rival	W–L	Win rate
Medvedev	1–4	20.0%
Shelton	3–2	60.0%
De Minaur	1–3	25.0%
Fritz	1–2	33.3%
Rublev	0–3	0.0%
Sinner	0–3	0.0%
Musetti	1–2	33.3%
Zverev	0–2	0.0%

Elite H2H is sparse for many mid-ranked players; only rows with multiple meetings are shown. Use these as matchup modifiers, not as a substitute for surface form.

Favourite vs underdog split

Role	Matches	Win rate
Favourite	51	68.6%
Underdog	97	38.1%

Favourite vs underdog win rate, Adrian Mannarino, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match odds via tennispredictor.net

What the betting market misses about Adrian Mannarino

Back Adrian Mannarino when:

• on grass (53.3% over 30 matches)
• when priced as favourite (68.6% conversion, n=51)

Fade Adrian Mannarino when:

• on clay (21.4%)
• as underdog (38.1%, n=97)

For live slate context, open the predictions dashboard rather than relying on a static profile alone.

How our model treats Adrian Mannarino

The ensemble weights surface win-rate history, recent form (last 5 / last 10), and tournament-tier context most heavily for a rank-21–50 profile like this. Favourite/underdog conversion is a secondary prior when odds history is dense enough (here: 148 matches with usable prices). Uncertainty rises when the next match is on a thin-sample surface or against an elite rival with a one-sided H2H.

Frequently asked questions

What is Adrian Mannarino's overall win rate in this study?

47.7% across 174 ATP main-draw matches from 2022 to 2026.

Which surface shows the highest win rate?

Grass at 53.3% (30 matches).

How often does Adrian Mannarino win when installed as favourite?

68.6% over 51 favourite-priced matches in the cache (usable odds only).

How does Adrian Mannarino perform at Grand Slams vs regular events?

Grand Slam win rate is 51.5% (17–16), versus 47.7% overall.

Who is Adrian Mannarino's toughest matchup in the data?

Among repeated elite meetings: Rublev (0–3).

When is Adrian Mannarino worth backing or fading based on this data?

Back when on grass (53.3% over 30 matches) / when priced as favourite (68.6% conversion, n=51). Fade when on clay (21.4%) / as underdog (38.1%, n=97).

How reliable are these statistics given the sample size?

174 matches is a standard profile sample; surface and favourite splits with n≥15 are the most trustworthy rows.

How does your model handle Adrian Mannarino's surface and form swings?

It re-weights recent surface form and does not treat the career overall win rate as a constant prior when the year-by-year table shows large swings.

Conclusion

Adrian Mannarino at ATP #49 is a ranks-21–50 profile defined by 47.7% overall and Grass specialist edge (53.3%) vs Clay at 21.4%. The actionable reads are the surface table, the favourite conversion (68.6%), and the round curve — not the ranking alone.

Watch the next clay/hard swing and any deep-run weeks to confirm whether the 2022–2026 pattern still holds into the second half of 2026. For related mid-tier profiles, see Vacherot and Collignon.