Felix Auger-Aliassime: the indoor titan with a volatility problem
Felix Auger-Aliassime (FAA) has played 211 ATP matches from 2022 to 2025 at a 62.1% overall win rate, but his data profile is defined more by its extraordinary year-to-year volatility than by the headline average. He went 72.2% in 2022, collapsed to 27.3% in 2023 (the largest single-season decline in the entire top-20 dataset), recovered to 47.6% in 2024, and returned to 65.7% in 2025. This swing of 45 percentage points from peak to trough — and back — makes FAA one of the most analytically complex profiles in this study.
Within that volatility, two stable signals stand out: 77.8% on indoor hard courts (the highest indoor figure in Batch 3) and 85.7% in finals (6 wins from 7 — second only to Djokovic's early-round record across all surfaces in this dataset).
Key metrics at a glance
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Overall win rate | 62.1% |
| Dataset rank (end of period) | 12 |
| Matches analysed | 211 (2022–2025) |
| Best surface | Indoors — 77.8% |
| Grand Slam win rate | 59.0% |
| Worst surface | Grass — 47.6% |
| As market favourite | 71.3% |
| As underdog | 44.4% |
FAA's year-by-year record
| Year | Matches | Wins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 36 | 26 | 72.2% |
| 2023 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% |
| 2024 | 21 | 10 | 47.6% |
| 2025 | 35 | 23 | 65.7% |
Win rate by season, Felix Auger-Aliassime, 2022–2025. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net
The 2023 sample (11 matches, 27.3%) reflects a partial season during which FAA underwent coaching changes and dealt with form inconsistency that produced early exits and rare wins. The recovery to 47.6% in 2024 and 65.7% in 2025 over 35 matches suggests the restructuring was successful, though the 2025 figure falls short of replicating 2022.
The key practical implication: FAA's rolling form windows in the most recent snapshot (last-5: 80%, last-10: 80%) are above his career average and suggest the model should weight the 2025 recovery positively.
Surface breakdown: indoor dominance, grass a weakness
| Surface | Matches | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Indoors | 45 | 77.8% |
| Grand Slam | 39 | 59.0% |
| Clay | 49 | 57.1% |
| Hard | 92 | 58.7% |
| Grass | 21 | 47.6% |
Win rate by surface, Felix Auger-Aliassime, 2022–2025. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net
FAA's indoor rate of 77.8% over 45 matches is his most reliable surface metric — matching Paul's indoor rate and Rune's indoor rate as the highest indoor figures in the top-20 dataset. At events like the Basel indoor, Rotterdam, and Marseille, his combination of serve, attacking forehand, and flat shot patterns is maximally effective.
The 20.7-point gap between indoor (77.8%) and grass (47.6%) is the widest surface differential in Batch 3. On grass, his relatively flat baseline game and limited net-approach variety make him vulnerable to specialists. His grass rate (47.6%) is below 50% — he is an underdog against serious grass players regardless of ranking.
The outdoor hard rate (58.7%, 92 matches — the largest surface sample) is the correct baseline for most ATP hard-court events, and it sits 4.9 points below his overall average.
Round-by-round: Final conversion is the surprise
Win rate by round, Felix Auger-Aliassime, 2022–2025. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net
| Round | Matches | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Final | 7 | 85.7% |
| R16 | 24 | 75.0% |
| R3 | 9 | 55.6% |
| QF | 16 | 56.2% |
| SF | 9 | 44.4% |
| R2 | 16 | 50.0% |
| R1 | 21 | 52.4% |
The Final figure (85.7%, 6 wins from 7 appearances) is the headline number in his round-by-round data. When FAA reaches a final, he wins it 6 times out of 7 — the second-highest final conversion rate in the top-20 dataset behind Djokovic's per-round early conversion rates. This is all the more striking given his modest SF rate (44.4%): he reaches finals less often than he could, but once he gets there, he is nearly dominant.
The early-round rates (52.4% R1, 50.0% R2) are below his overall average and reflect the volatility in his 2023–2024 data, which pulled these figures down despite his stronger 2022 and 2025 campaigns.
H2H against the elite
H2H win rate vs rivals with 2+ meetings, Felix Auger-Aliassime, 2022–2025. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net
| Opponent | Record | H2H win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Paul | 2–0 | 100.0% |
| Sinner | 3–2 | 60.0% |
| Korda | 2–1 | 66.7% |
| De Minaur | 2–1 | 66.7% |
| Ruud | 2–2 | 50.0% |
| Musetti | 2–2 | 50.0% |
| Cerundolo | 2–2 | 50.0% |
| Tsitsipas | 1–1 | 50.0% |
| Rune | 1–2 | 33.3% |
| Zverev | 1–2 | 33.3% |
| Alcaraz | 1–3 | 25.0% |
| Rublev | 2–5 | 28.6% |
| Medvedev | 1–4 | 20.0% |
FAA's most notable positive H2H: 3–2 against Sinner across 5 meetings — one of the few players in the full top-20 dataset with a positive record against the world number one. This is a genuine signal: FAA's aggressive serve-and-net patterns create specific problems for Sinner's deep-return game.
The Rublev record (2–5 across 7 meetings — the largest H2H sample in his profile) is the most consistent negative pattern: Rublev has dominated across clay and hard courts. Medvedev at 1–4 and Alcaraz at 1–3 define the upper tier ceiling.
As market favourite vs underdog
Win rate as market favourite vs underdog, Felix Auger-Aliassime, 2022–2025. Raw tournament cache. Source: tennispredictor.net
As favourite (171 matches): 71.3% — below the top-20 average for favourite conversion, reflecting the periods where his form dipped and he still held ranking-based favourite status. As underdog (72 matches): 44.4% — the highest underdog conversion rate in Batch 3 and consistent with his positive H2H records against several top-10 opponents.
What the betting market misses about FAA
The indoor premium is as large as anyone's. 77.8% indoor rate is one of the highest in the full top-20 dataset. At indoor events, FAA at ranking-based pricing is frequently undervalued by 5–8%.
The Final conversion anomaly. 85.7% in finals is statistically unusual and should inform betting when FAA reaches a final at an indoor or hard-court event. The market prices finals based on the two finalists' current form; FAA's historical final conversion rate adds an additional positive adjustment.
The 3-2 record against Sinner. FAA is one of the few players with a positive H2H against the current world number one. The market prices Sinner-FAA matchups based on ranking; the data says it should be a more competitive assessment.
How our model treats FAA
- Indoor boost — 77.8% indoor rate triggers maximum surface uplift
- Grass penalty — 47.6% grass triggers a strong downward adjustment
- Final-stage bonus — the 85.7% Final conversion is incorporated as a positive late-round modifier
- Sinner positive H2H — 3–2 record is applied as a positive signal modifier
- 2025 form recovery — rolling windows (80% last-5, 80% last-10) are above career average; model weights recovery positively
Frequently asked questions
What is FAA's overall win rate?
62.1% across 211 matches from 2022 to 2025. But this figure is heavily influenced by the 2023 partial season (27.3%). Excluding 2023, his average is approximately 65%.
What is his indoor win rate?
77.8% over 45 matches — the highest indoor figure in Batch 3 and one of the highest in the full top-20 dataset.
Why is his Final conversion rate so high?
85.7% (6/7) may reflect sample size in part, but the pattern is consistent: when FAA closes out to a Final, he is typically in peak form, his opponents have often been fatigued by longer draws, and his serve-and-forehand dominance is maximised in best-of-three Finals.
What is FAA's H2H record against Sinner?
3–2 across 5 meetings — one of only a handful of positive records against Sinner in the dataset. FAA's aggressive net-approaching patterns create specific problems for the Italian champion.
When is FAA worth backing?
At indoor events (77.8% rate), at any stage against Paul (2–0), and in Finals where he has reached via good form. Fade him on grass (47.6%), against Rublev (2–5), and in early rounds of hard-court events in 2025 where his early-round conversion is historically weak.
Conclusion
FAA's data profile requires a different analytical lens than most top-20 players: extreme year-to-year volatility means career averages are less predictive, and the standout figures (77.8% indoor, 85.7% finals, 3–2 vs Sinner) are the most actionable signals. For 2025 and 2026, the key questions are whether the 65.7% form recovery represents a new stable floor or will revert. Current rolling windows (80% last-5, 80% last-10) suggest the recovery is genuine and the model should reflect current-form FAA, not career-average FAA.
For the player with the most consistent positive H2H against FAA, see the Rublev analysis. For indoor event context, see the Rune analysis which shows similar indoor strength.
All statistics sourced from ATP match data 2022–2025. ATP Tour events only. Data extracted October 2025.
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