Felix Auger-Aliassime ATP analysis: top-20 profile and betting read

Felix Auger-Aliassime ranks #4 in the ATP (rankings snapshot 2026-08-31) and has played 278 ATP main-draw matches in our database from 2022–2026 (tournament cache through 2026-09-08). The headline number — 63.7% overall win rate — frames a clear top-20 profile, with 68.5% across 54 matches in 2026 (an uptick vs career). The paradox worth pricing: Indoors edge (78.9%) vs Grass at 54.5%.

Key metrics at a glance

Metric	Value
Overall win rate	63.7%
ATP rank (snapshot)	4
Matches analysed	278 (2022–2026)
Best surface	Indoors — 78.9%
Weakest surface	Grass — 54.5%
Grand Slam win rate	61.5% (32–20)
As favourite	66.7% (n=141)
As underdog	53.4% (n=58)

Auger-Aliassime's year-by-year record

Year	Matches	Wins	Win rate
2022	74	51	68.9%
2023	33	15	45.5%
2024	44	24	54.5%
2025	73	50	68.5%
2026	54	37	68.5%

Win rate by season, Felix Auger-Aliassime, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Year-to-year movement shows where the market should update fastest. The Indoors edge vs Grass floor and the year table are the primary form anchors for live pricing — not a single career average.

Surface breakdown: where the edge lives

Surface	Matches	Win rate
Hard	107	58.9%
Indoors	71	78.9%
Clay	67	59.7%
Grass	33	54.5%

Win rate by surface, Felix Auger-Aliassime, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Surface is the first filter before round or opponent quality. Compare clay baselines in the clay-court betting guide and grass patterns in the grass-court specificity guide when translating these rates into match previews.

Tournament tier: reliability by event level

Tournament level	Matches	Win rate
ATP 250	39	71.8%
ATP 500	96	68.8%
Grand Slam	52	61.5%
Masters 1000	91	56.0%

Win rate by tournament tier, Felix Auger-Aliassime, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Grand Slam and Masters samples matter most for pricing top-20 players; ATP 250/500 volume can inflate or deflate the headline win rate. Cross-check against Ben Shelton or Taylor Fritz for peer archetypes.

Round-by-round: early rounds vs deep runs

Round	Matches	Win rate
R1	56	67.9%
R2	49	61.2%
R3	21	66.7%
R16	61	77.0%
QF	47	51.1%
SF	25	52.0%
F	13	61.5%

Win rate by round, Felix Auger-Aliassime, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Round curves separate true closers from early-round specialists. Use the drop from early rounds into deeper stages as a fade signal even when the overall win rate looks elite — the same structural idea as Rublev's late-round ceiling.

H2H against elite rivals

Rival	W–L	Win rate
Sinner	3–5	37.5%
Rublev	2–5	28.6%
Medvedev	1–5	16.7%
Altmaier	4–2	66.7%
Ruud	3–2	60.0%

Elite H2H is the matchup modifier on top of surface form. Prefer rows with multiple meetings; single-sample rivalries are noise.

Favourite vs underdog split

Role	Matches	Win rate
Favourite	141	66.7%
Underdog	58	53.4%

Favourite vs underdog win rate, Felix Auger-Aliassime, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match odds via tennispredictor.net

What the betting market misses about Felix Auger-Aliassime

Back Felix Auger-Aliassime when:

• on indoors (78.9% over 71 matches)
• when priced as favourite (66.7% conversion, n=141)
• during strong 2026 form (68.5% over 54 matches)

Fade Felix Auger-Aliassime when:

• on grass (54.5%)
• in SF or later (52.0% at SF)
• against repeated negative H2H (e.g. Medvedev 1–5)

For live slate context, open the predictions dashboard rather than relying on a static profile alone.

How our model treats Felix Auger-Aliassime

The ensemble weights surface win-rate history, recent form (last 5 / last 10), and tournament-tier context most heavily for a top-20 profile like this. Favourite/underdog conversion is a strong secondary prior when odds history is dense (here: 199 matches with usable prices). Uncertainty rises when the next match is on grass or in a deep-draw round where Auger-Aliassime's historical conversion collapses.

Frequently asked questions

What is Felix Auger-Aliassime's overall win rate in this study?

63.7% across 278 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026.

Which surface shows the highest win rate?

Indoors at 78.9% (71 matches).

How often does Felix Auger-Aliassime win when installed as favourite?

66.7% over 141 favourite-priced matches in the cache (usable odds only).

How does Felix Auger-Aliassime perform at Grand Slams vs regular events?

Grand Slam win rate is 61.5% (32–20), versus 63.7% overall.

Who is Felix Auger-Aliassime's toughest matchup in the data?

Among repeated meetings: Medvedev (1–5).

When is Felix Auger-Aliassime worth backing or fading based on this data?

Back when on indoors (78.9% over 71 matches) / when priced as favourite (66.7% conversion, n=141) / during strong 2026 form (68.5% over 54 matches). Fade when on grass (54.5%) / in SF or later (52.0% at SF).

How reliable are these statistics given the sample size?

278 matches is a solid top-20 sample; surface and favourite splits with n≥15 are the most trustworthy rows. Cache through 2026-09-08.

How does your model handle Felix Auger-Aliassime's surface and form swings?

It re-weights recent surface form and does not treat the career overall win rate as a constant prior when the year-by-year table shows large swings (notably the 2026 line at 68.5%).

Conclusion

Felix Auger-Aliassime at ATP #4 is a top-20 profile defined by 63.7% overall and Indoors edge (78.9%) vs Grass at 54.5%. The actionable reads are the surface table, the favourite conversion, the 2026 form line, and the round curve — not the ranking alone.

Watch hard-court swings and any surface-specific weeks to confirm whether current form holds. For related profiles, see Ben Shelton and Taylor Fritz.