Valentin Vacherot: Hard specialist edge (64.0%) vs Clay at 40.0%

Valentin Vacherot ranks 19 in the ATP (August 2026 snapshot) and has played 50 ATP main-draw matches in our database from 2022–2026. The headline number — 54.0% overall win rate — frames a clear mid-tier profile, but the 51.6% mark in 2026 (31 matches) is the current form anchor. The paradox worth betting on: Hard specialist edge (64.0%) vs Clay at 40.0%. The sample is still thin but publishable (50 matches) — treat deep splits cautiously.

Key metrics at a glance

Metric	Value
Overall win rate	54.0%
ATP rank (snapshot)	19
Matches analysed	50 (2022–2026)
Best surface	Hard — 64.0%
Weakest surface	Clay — 40.0%
Grand Slam win rate	50.0% (3–3)
As favourite	50.0% (n=2)
As underdog	54.2% (n=24)

Vacherot's year-by-year record

Year	Matches	Wins	Win rate
2023	1	0	0.0%
2024	3	0	0.0%
2025	15	11	73.3%
2026	31	16	51.6%

Win rate by season, Valentin Vacherot, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Year-to-year movement shows where the market should update fastest. The Hard edge vs Clay floor and the year table are the primary form anchors for live pricing — not a single career average.

Surface breakdown: where the edge lives

Surface	Matches	Win rate
Hard	25	64.0%
Clay	20	40.0%
Indoors	5	60.0%

Win rate by surface, Valentin Vacherot, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Surface is the first filter before round or opponent quality. Compare clay baselines in the clay-court betting guide and grass patterns in the grass-court specificity guide when translating these rates into match previews.

Tournament tier: reliability by event level

Tournament level	Matches	Win rate
Masters 1000	28	64.3%
Grand Slam	6	50.0%
ATP 500	6	50.0%
ATP 250	10	30.0%

Win rate by tournament tier, Valentin Vacherot, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Grand Slam and Masters samples matter most for pricing; ATP 250/500 volume often inflates or deflates the headline win rate. Cross-check against Arthur Fils or Tommy Paul for other ranks-21–50 archetypes.

Round-by-round: early rounds vs deep runs

Round	Matches	Win rate
R1	17	52.9%
R2	12	50.0%
R3	4	50.0%
R16	8	75.0%
QF	6	33.3%
SF	2	50.0%
F	1	100.0%

Win rate by round, Valentin Vacherot, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Round curves separate true closers from early-round specialists. Use the drop from early rounds into deeper stages as a fade signal even when the overall win rate looks acceptable — the same structural idea as Rublev's late-round ceiling.

H2H against elite rivals

Rival	W–L	Win rate
Davidovich Fokina	0–2	0.0%
Dimitrov	0–2	0.0%
Rinderknech	2–0	100.0%
Navone	1–1	50.0%
Tabilo	0–2	0.0%

Elite H2H is sparse for many mid-ranked players; only rows with multiple meetings are shown. Use these as matchup modifiers, not as a substitute for surface form.

Favourite vs underdog split

Role	Matches	Win rate
Favourite	2	50.0%
Underdog	24	54.2%

Favourite vs underdog win rate, Valentin Vacherot, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match odds via tennispredictor.net

What the betting market misses about Valentin Vacherot

Back Valentin Vacherot when:

• on hard (64.0% over 25 matches)
• in first-round spots (52.9% over 17 matches)

Fade Valentin Vacherot when:

• on clay (40.0%)

For live slate context, open the predictions dashboard rather than relying on a static profile alone.

How our model treats Valentin Vacherot

The ensemble weights surface win-rate history, recent form (last 5 / last 10), and tournament-tier context most heavily for a rank-21–50 profile like this. Favourite/underdog conversion is a secondary prior when odds history is dense enough (here: 26 matches with usable prices). Uncertainty rises when the next match is on clay or in a deep-draw round where Vacherot's historical conversion collapses.

Frequently asked questions

What is Valentin Vacherot's overall win rate in this study?

54.0% across 50 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026.

Which surface shows the highest win rate?

Hard at 64.0% (25 matches).

How often does Valentin Vacherot win when installed as favourite?

50.0% over 2 favourite-priced matches in the cache (usable odds only).

How does Valentin Vacherot perform at Grand Slams vs regular events?

Grand Slam win rate is 50.0% (3–3), versus 54.0% overall.

Who is Valentin Vacherot's toughest matchup in the data?

Among repeated elite meetings: Davidovich Fokina (0–2).

When is Valentin Vacherot worth backing or fading based on this data?

Back when on hard (64.0% over 25 matches) / in first-round spots (52.9% over 17 matches). Fade when on clay (40.0%).

How reliable are these statistics given the sample size?

50 matches is a thin profile sample; surface and favourite splits with n≥15 are the most trustworthy rows.

How does your model handle Valentin Vacherot's surface and form swings?

It re-weights recent surface form and does not treat the career overall win rate as a constant prior when the year-by-year table shows large swings (notably the 2026 line at 51.6%).

Conclusion

Valentin Vacherot at ATP #19 is a ranks-21–50 profile defined by 54.0% overall and Hard specialist edge (64.0%) vs Clay at 40.0%. The actionable reads are the surface table, the favourite conversion, the 2026 form line, and the round curve — not the ranking alone.

Watch the North American hard-court swing and any surface-specific weeks to confirm whether current form holds. For related mid-tier profiles, see Arthur Fils and Raphaël Collignon.