Rafael Jodar ATP analysis: top-20 profile and betting read

Rafael Jodar ranks #13 in the ATP (rankings snapshot 2026-10) and has played 59 ATP main-draw matches in our database from 2022–2026 (tournament cache through 2026-09-08). The headline number — 71.2% overall win rate — frames a clear top-20 profile, with 71.4% across 56 matches in 2026 (an uptick vs career). The paradox worth pricing: Clay edge (82.1%) vs Indoors at 50.0%.

Key metrics at a glance

Metric	Value
Overall win rate	71.2%
ATP rank (snapshot)	13
Matches analysed	59 (2022–2026)
Best surface	Clay — 82.1%
Weakest surface	Indoors — 50.0%
Grand Slam win rate	63.6% (7–4)
As favourite	80.0% (n=10)
As underdog	53.3% (n=15)

Jodar's year-by-year record

Year	Matches	Wins	Win rate
2025	3	2	66.7%
2026	56	40	71.4%

Win rate by season, Rafael Jodar, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Year-to-year movement shows where the market should update fastest. The Clay edge vs Indoors floor and the year table are the primary form anchors for live pricing — not a single career average.

Surface breakdown: where the edge lives

Surface	Matches	Win rate
Clay	28	82.1%
Hard	24	62.5%
Indoors	4	50.0%
Grass	3	66.7%

Win rate by surface, Rafael Jodar, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Surface is the first filter before round or opponent quality. Compare clay baselines in the clay-court betting guide and grass patterns in the grass-court specificity guide when translating these rates into match previews.

Tournament tier: reliability by event level

Tournament level	Matches	Win rate
ATP 250	15	80.0%
Masters 1000	21	71.4%
ATP 500	12	66.7%
Grand Slam	11	63.6%

Win rate by tournament tier, Rafael Jodar, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Grand Slam and Masters samples matter most for pricing top-20 players; ATP 250/500 volume can inflate or deflate the headline win rate. Cross-check against Learner Tien or Jakub Mensik for peer archetypes.

Round-by-round: early rounds vs deep runs

Round	Matches	Win rate
R1	14	78.6%
R2	9	88.9%
R3	8	75.0%
R16	11	72.7%
QF	8	50.0%
SF	4	50.0%
F	2	50.0%

Win rate by round, Rafael Jodar, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Round curves separate true closers from early-round specialists. Use the drop from early rounds into deeper stages as a fade signal even when the overall win rate looks elite — the same structural idea as Rublev's late-round ceiling.

H2H against elite rivals

Rival	W–L	Win rate
Tabilo	2–1	66.7%
Fils	2–1	66.7%
Carreno-Busta	3–0	100.0%
Tien	2–0	100.0%
Norrie	2–0	100.0%

Elite H2H is the matchup modifier on top of surface form. Prefer rows with multiple meetings; single-sample rivalries are noise.

Favourite vs underdog split

Role	Matches	Win rate
Favourite	10	80.0%
Underdog	15	53.3%

Favourite vs underdog win rate, Rafael Jodar, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match odds via tennispredictor.net

What the betting market misses about Rafael Jodar

Back Rafael Jodar when:

• on clay (82.1% over 28 matches)
• when priced as favourite (80.0% conversion, n=10)
• during strong 2026 form (71.4% over 56 matches)

Fade Rafael Jodar when:

• on indoors (50.0%)
• in QF or later (50.0% at QF)

For live slate context, open the predictions dashboard rather than relying on a static profile alone.

How our model treats Rafael Jodar

The ensemble weights surface win-rate history, recent form (last 5 / last 10), and tournament-tier context most heavily for a top-20 profile like this. Favourite/underdog conversion is a strong secondary prior when odds history is dense (here: 25 matches with usable prices). Uncertainty rises when the next match is on indoors or in a deep-draw round where Jodar's historical conversion collapses.

Frequently asked questions

What is Rafael Jodar's overall win rate in this study?

71.2% across 59 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026.

Which surface shows the highest win rate?

Clay at 82.1% (28 matches).

How often does Rafael Jodar win when installed as favourite?

80.0% over 10 favourite-priced matches in the cache (usable odds only).

How does Rafael Jodar perform at Grand Slams vs regular events?

Grand Slam win rate is 63.6% (7–4), versus 71.2% overall.

Who is Rafael Jodar's toughest matchup in the data?

Among repeated meetings: Tabilo (2–1).

When is Rafael Jodar worth backing or fading based on this data?

Back when on clay (82.1% over 28 matches) / when priced as favourite (80.0% conversion, n=10) / during strong 2026 form (71.4% over 56 matches). Fade when on indoors (50.0%) / in QF or later (50.0% at QF).

How reliable are these statistics given the sample size?

59 matches is a solid top-20 sample; surface and favourite splits with n≥15 are the most trustworthy rows. Cache through 2026-09-08.

How does your model handle Rafael Jodar's surface and form swings?

It re-weights recent surface form and does not treat the career overall win rate as a constant prior when the year-by-year table shows large swings (notably the 2026 line at 71.4%).

Conclusion

Rafael Jodar at ATP #13 is a top-20 profile defined by 71.2% overall and Clay edge (82.1%) vs Indoors at 50.0%. The actionable reads are the surface table, the favourite conversion, the 2026 form line, and the round curve — not the ranking alone.

Watch hard-court swings and any surface-specific weeks to confirm whether current form holds. For related profiles, see Learner Tien and Jakub Mensik.