Jakub Mensik ATP Analysis: Hard-Court Climber with a Third-Round Dip
Jakub Mensik ranks #19 in the live ATP standings and has 105 matches in our raw tournament cache from 2022–2026 at a 63.8% overall win rate. The data paints a clear picture: hard-court breakout and elite early-round conversion. 80.6% in R1 but 35.7% at R3 — the model watches that mid-draw cliff.
Key metrics at a glance
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Overall win rate (OWR) | 63.8% |
| Matches in dataset | 105 (2022–2026) |
| Best surface | Hard — 67.6% |
| Worst surface | Grass — 50.0% |
| As favourite | 26 matches — 80.8% |
| As underdog | 79 matches — 58.2% |
| Current ATP ranking | #19 (July 2026) |
Year-by-year record
| Year | Matches | Wins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% |
| 2024 | 33 | 20 | 60.6% |
| 2025 | 50 | 31 | 62.0% |
| 2026 | 19 | 14 | 73.7% |
Win rate by season, Jakub Mensik, 2022–2026. Source: raw tournament cache via tennispredictor.net
Surface breakdown
| Surface | Matches | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 71 | 67.6% |
| Clay | 18 | 61.1% |
| Grass | 12 | 50.0% |
| Indoors | 4 | 50.0% |
Win rate by surface, Jakub Mensik, 2022–2026. Source: raw tournament cache via tennispredictor.net
Hard is the strongest surface (67.6%); Grass is the floor (50.0%). For match predictions, see the live dashboard.
Round-by-round profile
| Round | Matches | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| R1 | 31 | 80.6% |
| R2 | 20 | 70.0% |
| R3 | 14 | 35.7% |
| R16 | 19 | 68.4% |
| QF | 13 | 38.5% |
| SF | 5 | 60.0% |
| F | 3 | 66.7% |
Win rate by round, Jakub Mensik, 2022–2026. Source: raw tournament cache via tennispredictor.net
Head-to-head vs frequent rivals
| Opponent | Record | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Davidovich Fokina | 1-5 | 16.7% |
| Hurkacz | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| Shelton | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| Hanfmann | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| Djokovic | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| Bublik | 2-1 | 66.7% |
H2H win rate vs rivals with 2+ meetings, Jakub Mensik. Source: raw tournament cache via tennispredictor.net
Market role: favourite vs underdog
Win rate as market favourite vs underdog, Jakub Mensik, 2022–2026. Source: raw tournament cache via tennispredictor.net
As favourite (26 matches): 80.8%. As underdog (79 matches): 58.2%.
What the betting market misses
The market often prices Jakub Mensik on reputation and ranking snapshots rather than surface-specific cache win rates. The 67.6% Hard figure and 50.0% Grass floor are the first filters — back aggressively on the strong surface, respect the weak one.
80.6% in r1 but 35.7% at r3 — the model watches that mid-draw cliff is the second filter for draw-stage betting.
How our model treats Mensik
The ensemble weights recent-form windows, surface splits, and market role. Jakub Mensik enters the top-20 player pool with live rank #19; see also:
- Compare with Tien Atp Player Analysis
- Compare with Lehecka Atp Player Analysis
- Compare with Rublev Quarter Final Ceiling Analysis
Frequently asked questions
What is Jakub Mensik's overall win rate in this dataset?
63.8% across 105 matches (2022–2026) in the raw tournament cache.
What is Jakub Mensik's best surface?
Hard at 67.6% over 71 matches.
When is Jakub Mensik worth backing as favourite?
When the market makes him favourite, the cache shows 80.8% (26 matches) — strong conversion.
How fresh is this data?
Stats are drawn from data/cache/tournaments through 2026; ATP rank from unified_rankings.json scraped July 2026.
See today's match predictions with confidence scores and value signals.
View Live Predictionsarrow_forwardRelated Articles
Arthur Fils ATP Analysis: The Most Consistent Top-20 Player You Are Under-Rating
Fils does not produce headlines, but he produces results: 225 matches at 59.1% over four seasons, 71.1% as favourite across 97 matches. He is the model's most reliable mid-tier player — and likely under-valued at #20.
Jun 14, 2026 · 11 min read
Jiří Lehečka ATP Analysis: Hard Court Climber with an Elite-Proof Ceiling
Lehečka's improvement arc is unmatched in the current top 20: 37.9% to 63.3% over four seasons. His 63.6% hard court win rate makes him a legitimate contender — until he hits the elite wall he has never climbed.
Jun 14, 2026 · 11 min read
Learner Tien ATP Analysis: 2025 Breakout Star with Clay as Kryptonite
Tien's 2025 breakout was real: 56.9% from 58 matches, 81% as favourite, wins over Medvedev and Shelton. The 9.1% clay win rate is equally real — one of the most extreme surface weaknesses in the current top 20.
Jun 14, 2026 · 10 min read
Valentin Vacherot ATP Analysis: 2025 Hard Court Revelation — With a Major Data Caveat
Vacherot has the least data of any current top-20 player — 19 matches. But those 19 matches include a win over Djokovic, a 50% underdog win rate, and a 73.3% season rate in 2025. A preliminary profile with transparent uncertainty markers.
Jun 14, 2026 · 8 min read