Jakub Mensik ATP analysis: top-20 profile and betting read

Jakub Mensik ranks #15 in the ATP (rankings snapshot 2026-10) and has played 138 ATP main-draw matches in our database from 2022–2026 (tournament cache through 2026-09-08). The headline number — 64.5% overall win rate — frames a clear top-20 profile, with 69.2% across 52 matches in 2026 (an uptick vs career). The paradox worth pricing: favourite conversion at 80.6% (19.4% upset risk).

Key metrics at a glance

Metric	Value
Overall win rate	64.5%
ATP rank (snapshot)	15
Matches analysed	138 (2022–2026)
Best surface	Hard — 67.5%
Weakest surface	Grass — 46.7%
Grand Slam win rate	64.7% (22–12)
As favourite	80.6% (n=36)
As underdog	47.2% (n=53)

Mensik's year-by-year record

Year	Matches	Wins	Win rate
2023	3	2	66.7%
2024	33	20	60.6%
2025	50	31	62.0%
2026	52	36	69.2%

Win rate by season, Jakub Mensik, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Year-to-year movement shows where the market should update fastest. The favourite conversion at 80.6% and the year table are the primary form anchors for live pricing — not a single career average.

Surface breakdown: where the edge lives

Surface	Matches	Win rate
Hard	83	67.5%
Clay	36	66.7%
Grass	15	46.7%
Indoors	4	50.0%

Win rate by surface, Jakub Mensik, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Surface is the first filter before round or opponent quality. Compare clay baselines in the clay-court betting guide and grass patterns in the grass-court specificity guide when translating these rates into match previews.

Tournament tier: reliability by event level

Tournament level	Matches	Win rate
ATP 250	20	75.0%
Masters 1000	47	66.0%
Grand Slam	34	64.7%
ATP 500	37	56.8%

Win rate by tournament tier, Jakub Mensik, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Grand Slam and Masters samples matter most for pricing top-20 players; ATP 250/500 volume can inflate or deflate the headline win rate. Cross-check against Rafael Jodar or Jiri Lehecka for peer archetypes.

Round-by-round: early rounds vs deep runs

Round	Matches	Win rate
R1	38	81.6%
R2	28	71.4%
R3	20	50.0%
R16	26	61.5%
QF	16	43.8%
SF	7	42.9%
F	3	66.7%

Win rate by round, Jakub Mensik, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Round curves separate true closers from early-round specialists. Use the drop from early rounds into deeper stages as a fade signal even when the overall win rate looks elite — the same structural idea as Rublev's late-round ceiling.

H2H against elite rivals

Rival	W–L	Win rate
Davidovich Fokina	1–5	16.7%
Rublev	4–0	100.0%
Shelton	2–2	50.0%
De Minaur	2–2	50.0%
Droguet	3–0	100.0%

Elite H2H is the matchup modifier on top of surface form. Prefer rows with multiple meetings; single-sample rivalries are noise.

Favourite vs underdog split

Role	Matches	Win rate
Favourite	36	80.6%
Underdog	53	47.2%

Favourite vs underdog win rate, Jakub Mensik, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match odds via tennispredictor.net

What the betting market misses about Jakub Mensik

Back Jakub Mensik when:

• on hard (67.5% over 83 matches)
• when priced as favourite (80.6% conversion, n=36)
• during strong 2026 form (69.2% over 52 matches)

Fade Jakub Mensik when:

• on grass (46.7%)
• in QF or later (43.8% at QF)
• against repeated negative H2H (e.g. Davidovich Fokina 1–5)

For live slate context, open the predictions dashboard rather than relying on a static profile alone.

How our model treats Jakub Mensik

The ensemble weights surface win-rate history, recent form (last 5 / last 10), and tournament-tier context most heavily for a top-20 profile like this. Favourite/underdog conversion is a strong secondary prior when odds history is dense (here: 89 matches with usable prices). Uncertainty rises when the next match is on grass or in a deep-draw round where Mensik's historical conversion collapses.

Frequently asked questions

What is Jakub Mensik's overall win rate in this study?

64.5% across 138 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026.

Which surface shows the highest win rate?

Hard at 67.5% (83 matches).

How often does Jakub Mensik win when installed as favourite?

80.6% over 36 favourite-priced matches in the cache (usable odds only).

How does Jakub Mensik perform at Grand Slams vs regular events?

Grand Slam win rate is 64.7% (22–12), versus 64.5% overall.

Who is Jakub Mensik's toughest matchup in the data?

Among repeated meetings: Davidovich Fokina (1–5).

When is Jakub Mensik worth backing or fading based on this data?

Back when on hard (67.5% over 83 matches) / when priced as favourite (80.6% conversion, n=36) / during strong 2026 form (69.2% over 52 matches). Fade when on grass (46.7%) / in QF or later (43.8% at QF).

How reliable are these statistics given the sample size?

138 matches is a solid top-20 sample; surface and favourite splits with n≥15 are the most trustworthy rows. Cache through 2026-09-08.

How does your model handle Jakub Mensik's surface and form swings?

It re-weights recent surface form and does not treat the career overall win rate as a constant prior when the year-by-year table shows large swings (notably the 2026 line at 69.2%).

Conclusion

Jakub Mensik at ATP #15 is a top-20 profile defined by 64.5% overall and favourite conversion at 80.6% (19.4% upset risk). The actionable reads are the surface table, the favourite conversion, the 2026 form line, and the round curve — not the ranking alone.

Watch hard-court swings and any surface-specific weeks to confirm whether current form holds. For related profiles, see Rafael Jodar and Jiri Lehecka.