Brandon Nakashima: Grass specialist edge (59.4%) vs Clay at 43.8%

Brandon Nakashima ranks 32 in the ATP (July 2026 snapshot) and has played 201 ATP main-draw matches in our database from 2022 to 2026. The headline number — 53.7% overall win rate — frames a clear mid-tier profile. The paradox worth betting on: Grass specialist edge (59.4%) vs Clay at 43.8%.

Key metrics at a glance

Metric	Value
Overall win rate	53.7%
ATP rank (snapshot)	32
Matches analysed	201 (2022–2026)
Best surface	Grass — 59.4%
Weakest surface	Clay — 43.8%
Grand Slam win rate	50.0% (16–16)
As favourite	66.3% (n=89)
As underdog	29.8% (n=57)

Nakashima's year-by-year record

Year	Matches	Wins	Win rate
2022	58	35	60.3%
2023	26	9	34.6%
2024	38	21	55.3%
2025	62	33	53.2%
2026	17	10	58.8%

Win rate by season, Brandon Nakashima, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Year-to-year movement shows where the market should update fastest. Peak and trough seasons above are the primary form anchors for live pricing — not a single career average.

Surface breakdown: where the edge lives

Surface	Matches	Win rate
Grass	32	59.4%
Hard	114	55.3%
Indoors	23	52.2%
Clay	32	43.8%

Win rate by surface, Brandon Nakashima, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Surface is the first filter before round or opponent quality. Compare clay baselines in the clay-court betting guide and grass patterns in the grass-court specificity guide when translating these rates into match previews.

Tournament tier: reliability by event level

Tournament level	Matches	Win rate
Grand Slam	32	50.0%
Masters 1000	48	39.6%
ATP 500	47	55.3%
ATP 250	74	63.5%

Win rate by tournament tier, Brandon Nakashima, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Grand Slam and Masters samples matter most for pricing; ATP 250/500 volume often inflates or deflates the headline win rate. Cross-check against Tommy Paul or Francisco Cerundolo for other ranks-21–50 archetypes.

Round-by-round: early rounds vs deep runs

Round	Matches	Win rate
1R	122	55.7%
2R	31	61.3%
3R	14	35.7%
QF	19	42.1%
SF	9	33.3%
F	3	66.7%
-	3	100.0%

Win rate by round, Brandon Nakashima, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Round curves separate true closers from early-round specialists. A drop at QF/SF is a fade signal even when the overall win rate looks healthy — the same structural idea as Rublev's late-round ceiling.

H2H against elite rivals

Rival	W–L	Win rate
Zverev	0–5	0.0%
Shelton	0–5	0.0%
Medvedev	0–3	0.0%
Rune	3–0	100.0%
Musetti	1–2	33.3%
Rublev	1–1	50.0%
Fritz	1–1	50.0%

Elite H2H is sparse for many mid-ranked players; only rows with multiple meetings are shown. Use these as matchup modifiers, not as a substitute for surface form.

Favourite vs underdog split

Role	Matches	Win rate
Favourite	89	66.3%
Underdog	57	29.8%

Favourite vs underdog win rate, Brandon Nakashima, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match odds via tennispredictor.net

What the betting market misses about Brandon Nakashima

Back Brandon Nakashima when:

• on grass (59.4% over 32 matches)
• when priced as favourite (66.3% conversion, n=89)

Fade Brandon Nakashima when:

• on clay (43.8%)
• as underdog (29.8%, n=57)

For live slate context, open the predictions dashboard rather than relying on a static profile alone.

How our model treats Brandon Nakashima

The ensemble weights surface win-rate history, recent form (last 5 / last 10), and tournament-tier context most heavily for a rank-21–50 profile like this. Favourite/underdog conversion is a secondary prior when odds history is dense enough (here: 146 matches with usable prices). Uncertainty rises when the next match is on a thin-sample surface or against an elite rival with a one-sided H2H.

Frequently asked questions

What is Brandon Nakashima's overall win rate in this study?

53.7% across 201 ATP main-draw matches from 2022 to 2026.

Which surface shows the highest win rate?

Grass at 59.4% (32 matches).

How often does Brandon Nakashima win when installed as favourite?

66.3% over 89 favourite-priced matches in the cache (usable odds only).

How does Brandon Nakashima perform at Grand Slams vs regular events?

Grand Slam win rate is 50.0% (16–16), versus 53.7% overall.

Who is Brandon Nakashima's toughest matchup in the data?

Among repeated elite meetings: Zverev (0–5).

When is Brandon Nakashima worth backing or fading based on this data?

Back when on grass (59.4% over 32 matches) / when priced as favourite (66.3% conversion, n=89). Fade when on clay (43.8%) / as underdog (29.8%, n=57).

How reliable are these statistics given the sample size?

201 matches is a standard profile sample; surface and favourite splits with n≥15 are the most trustworthy rows.

How does your model handle Brandon Nakashima's surface and form swings?

It re-weights recent surface form and does not treat the career overall win rate as a constant prior when the year-by-year table shows large swings.

Conclusion

Brandon Nakashima at ATP #32 is a ranks-21–50 profile defined by 53.7% overall and Grass specialist edge (59.4%) vs Clay at 43.8%. The actionable reads are the surface table, the favourite conversion (66.3%), and the round curve — not the ranking alone.

Watch the next clay/hard swing and any deep-run weeks to confirm whether the 2022–2026 pattern still holds into the second half of 2026. For related mid-tier profiles, see Vacherot and Collignon.