Brandon Nakashima: reliable favourite conversion at 68.1%

Brandon Nakashima ranks 22 in the ATP (August 2026 snapshot) and has played 235 ATP main-draw matches in our database from 2022–2026. The headline number — 55.7% overall win rate — frames a clear mid-tier profile, but the 64.7% mark in 2026 (51 matches) shows a live uptick. The paradox worth betting on: reliable favourite conversion at 68.1%.

Key metrics at a glance

Metric	Value
Overall win rate	55.7%
ATP rank (snapshot)	22
Matches analysed	235 (2022–2026)
Best surface	Grass — 60.5%
Weakest surface	Clay — 46.7%
Grand Slam win rate	51.4% (19–18)
As favourite	68.1% (n=91)
As underdog	32.4% (n=71)

Nakashima's year-by-year record

Year	Matches	Wins	Win rate
2022	58	35	60.3%
2023	26	9	34.6%
2024	38	21	55.3%
2025	62	33	53.2%
2026	51	33	64.7%

Win rate by season, Brandon Nakashima, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Year-to-year movement shows where the market should update fastest. The favourite conversion at 68.1% and the year table are the primary form anchors for live pricing — not a single career average.

Surface breakdown: where the edge lives

Surface	Matches	Win rate
Hard	129	58.1%
Clay	45	46.7%
Grass	38	60.5%
Indoors	23	52.2%

Win rate by surface, Brandon Nakashima, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Surface is the first filter before round or opponent quality. Compare clay baselines in the clay-court betting guide and grass patterns in the grass-court specificity guide when translating these rates into match previews.

Tournament tier: reliability by event level

Tournament level	Matches	Win rate
ATP 250	56	66.1%
ATP 500	80	57.5%
Grand Slam	37	51.4%
Masters 1000	62	46.8%

Win rate by tournament tier, Brandon Nakashima, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Grand Slam and Masters samples matter most for pricing; ATP 250/500 volume often inflates or deflates the headline win rate. Cross-check against Tommy Paul or Francisco Cerundolo for other ranks-21–50 archetypes.

Round-by-round: early rounds vs deep runs

Round	Matches	Win rate
R1	85	65.9%
R2	38	63.2%
R3	19	36.8%
R16	50	46.0%
QF	23	52.2%
SF	13	30.8%
F	4	50.0%

Win rate by round, Brandon Nakashima, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Round curves separate true closers from early-round specialists. Use the drop from early rounds into deeper stages as a fade signal even when the overall win rate looks acceptable — the same structural idea as Rublev's late-round ceiling.

H2H against elite rivals

Rival	W–L	Win rate
Tiafoe	1–6	14.3%
Thompson	4–2	66.7%
Shelton	0–6	0.0%
Zverev	0–5	0.0%
Bautista-Agut	3–2	60.0%

Elite H2H is sparse for many mid-ranked players; only rows with multiple meetings are shown. Use these as matchup modifiers, not as a substitute for surface form.

Favourite vs underdog split

Role	Matches	Win rate
Favourite	91	68.1%
Underdog	71	32.4%

Favourite vs underdog win rate, Brandon Nakashima, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match odds via tennispredictor.net

What the betting market misses about Brandon Nakashima

Back Brandon Nakashima when:

• on grass (60.5% over 38 matches)
• when priced as favourite (68.1% conversion, n=91)
• in first-round spots (65.9% over 85 matches)
• during strong 2026 form (64.7% over 51 matches)

Fade Brandon Nakashima when:

• on clay (46.7%)
• in R3 or later (36.8% at R3)
• against top-tier opponents with repeated negative H2H (e.g. Shelton 0–6)

For live slate context, open the predictions dashboard rather than relying on a static profile alone.

How our model treats Brandon Nakashima

The ensemble weights surface win-rate history, recent form (last 5 / last 10), and tournament-tier context most heavily for a rank-21–50 profile like this. Favourite/underdog conversion is a secondary prior when odds history is dense enough (here: 162 matches with usable prices). Uncertainty rises when the next match is on clay or in a deep-draw round where Nakashima's historical conversion collapses.

Frequently asked questions

What is Brandon Nakashima's overall win rate in this study?

55.7% across 235 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026.

Which surface shows the highest win rate?

Grass at 60.5% (38 matches).

How often does Brandon Nakashima win when installed as favourite?

68.1% over 91 favourite-priced matches in the cache (usable odds only).

How does Brandon Nakashima perform at Grand Slams vs regular events?

Grand Slam win rate is 51.4% (19–18), versus 55.7% overall.

Who is Brandon Nakashima's toughest matchup in the data?

Among repeated elite meetings: Shelton (0–6).

When is Brandon Nakashima worth backing or fading based on this data?

Back when on grass (60.5% over 38 matches) / when priced as favourite (68.1% conversion, n=91) / in first-round spots (65.9% over 85 matches). Fade when on clay (46.7%) / in R3 or later (36.8% at R3).

How reliable are these statistics given the sample size?

235 matches is a standard profile sample; surface and favourite splits with n≥15 are the most trustworthy rows.

How does your model handle Brandon Nakashima's surface and form swings?

It re-weights recent surface form and does not treat the career overall win rate as a constant prior when the year-by-year table shows large swings (notably the 2026 line at 64.7%).

Conclusion

Brandon Nakashima at ATP #22 is a ranks-21–50 profile defined by 55.7% overall and reliable favourite conversion at 68.1%. The actionable reads are the surface table, the favourite conversion, the 2026 form line, and the round curve — not the ranking alone.

Watch the North American hard-court swing and any surface-specific weeks to confirm whether current form holds. For related mid-tier profiles, see Frances Tiafoe and Cameron Norrie.