Frances Tiafoe ATP Analysis: Crowd-Favourite Value with a Final Ceiling
Frances Tiafoe ranks #17 in the live ATP standings and has 224 matches in our raw tournament cache from 2022–2026 at a 60.7% overall win rate. The data paints a clear picture: consistent hard-court floor and strong favourite conversion. 71.4% as market favourite across 119 matches — but 25.0% in finals.
Key metrics at a glance
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Overall win rate (OWR) | 60.7% |
| Matches in dataset | 224 (2022–2026) |
| Best surface | Hard — 62.6% |
| Worst surface | Indoors — 52.9% |
| As favourite | 119 matches — 71.4% |
| As underdog | 105 matches — 48.6% |
| Current ATP ranking | #17 (July 2026) |
Year-by-year record
| Year | Matches | Wins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 57 | 34 | 59.6% |
| 2023 | 49 | 32 | 65.3% |
| 2024 | 49 | 29 | 59.2% |
| 2025 | 47 | 26 | 55.3% |
| 2026 | 22 | 15 | 68.2% |
Win rate by season, Frances Tiafoe, 2022–2026. Source: raw tournament cache via tennispredictor.net
Surface breakdown
| Surface | Matches | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 131 | 62.6% |
| Clay | 52 | 59.6% |
| Grass | 24 | 58.3% |
| Indoors | 17 | 52.9% |
Win rate by surface, Frances Tiafoe, 2022–2026. Source: raw tournament cache via tennispredictor.net
Hard is the strongest surface (62.6%); Indoors is the floor (52.9%). For match predictions, see the live dashboard.
Round-by-round profile
| Round | Matches | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| R1 | 50 | 74.0% |
| R2 | 50 | 66.0% |
| R3 | 26 | 46.2% |
| R16 | 46 | 65.2% |
| QF | 30 | 46.7% |
| SF | 14 | 57.1% |
| F | 8 | 25.0% |
Win rate by round, Frances Tiafoe, 2022–2026. Source: raw tournament cache via tennispredictor.net
Head-to-head vs frequent rivals
| Opponent | Record | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Nakashima | 5-1 | 83.3% |
| Korda | 2-4 | 33.3% |
| Fritz | 0-5 | 0.0% |
| Davidovich Fokina | 3-1 | 75.0% |
| Giron | 3-1 | 75.0% |
| Kubler | 4-0 | 100.0% |
H2H win rate vs rivals with 2+ meetings, Frances Tiafoe. Source: raw tournament cache via tennispredictor.net
Market role: favourite vs underdog
Win rate as market favourite vs underdog, Frances Tiafoe, 2022–2026. Source: raw tournament cache via tennispredictor.net
As favourite (119 matches): 71.4%. As underdog (105 matches): 48.6%.
What the betting market misses
The market often prices Frances Tiafoe on reputation and ranking snapshots rather than surface-specific cache win rates. The 62.6% Hard figure and 52.9% Indoors floor are the first filters — back aggressively on the strong surface, respect the weak one.
71.4% as market favourite across 119 matches — but 25.0% in finals is the second filter for draw-stage betting.
How our model treats Tiafoe
The ensemble weights recent-form windows, surface splits, and market role. Frances Tiafoe enters the top-20 player pool with live rank #17; see also:
- Compare with Shelton Atp Player Analysis
- Compare with Fritz Atp Player Analysis
- Compare with Paul Atp Player Analysis
Frequently asked questions
What is Frances Tiafoe's overall win rate in this dataset?
60.7% across 224 matches (2022–2026) in the raw tournament cache.
What is Frances Tiafoe's best surface?
Hard at 62.6% over 131 matches.
When is Frances Tiafoe worth backing as favourite?
When the market makes him favourite, the cache shows 71.4% (119 matches) — strong conversion.
How fresh is this data?
Stats are drawn from data/cache/tournaments through 2026; ATP rank from unified_rankings.json scraped July 2026.
See today's match predictions with confidence scores and value signals.
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