Tommy Paul: reliable favourite conversion at 78.0%

Tommy Paul ranks 24 in the ATP (August 2026 snapshot) and has played 270 ATP main-draw matches in our database from 2022–2026. The headline number — 65.9% overall win rate — frames a clear mid-tier profile, but the 68.5% mark in 2026 (54 matches) shows a live uptick. The paradox worth betting on: reliable favourite conversion at 78.0%.

Key metrics at a glance

Metric	Value
Overall win rate	65.9%
ATP rank (snapshot)	24
Matches analysed	270 (2022–2026)
Best surface	Indoors — 75.0%
Weakest surface	Clay — 61.4%
Grand Slam win rate	70.8% (46–19)
As favourite	78.0% (n=132)
As underdog	47.9% (n=96)

Paul's year-by-year record

Year	Matches	Wins	Win rate
2022	62	36	58.1%
2023	55	35	63.6%
2024	56	41	73.2%
2025	43	29	67.4%
2026	54	37	68.5%

Win rate by season, Tommy Paul, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Year-to-year movement shows where the market should update fastest. The favourite conversion at 78.0% and the year table are the primary form anchors for live pricing — not a single career average.

Surface breakdown: where the edge lives

Surface	Matches	Win rate
Hard	145	65.5%
Clay	57	61.4%
Grass	44	68.2%
Indoors	24	75.0%

Win rate by surface, Tommy Paul, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Surface is the first filter before round or opponent quality. Compare clay baselines in the clay-court betting guide and grass patterns in the grass-court specificity guide when translating these rates into match previews.

Tournament tier: reliability by event level

Tournament level	Matches	Win rate
Grand Slam	65	70.8%
ATP 250	58	65.5%
ATP 500	62	64.5%
Masters 1000	85	63.5%

Win rate by tournament tier, Tommy Paul, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Grand Slam and Masters samples matter most for pricing; ATP 250/500 volume often inflates or deflates the headline win rate. Cross-check against Frances Tiafoe or Francisco Cerundolo for other ranks-21–50 archetypes.

Round-by-round: early rounds vs deep runs

Round	Matches	Win rate
R1	59	79.7%
R2	49	79.6%
R3	35	54.3%
R16	58	67.2%
QF	39	51.3%
SF	20	50.0%
F	10	40.0%

Win rate by round, Tommy Paul, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Round curves separate true closers from early-round specialists. Use the drop from early rounds into deeper stages as a fade signal even when the overall win rate looks acceptable — the same structural idea as Rublev's late-round ceiling.

H2H against elite rivals

Rival	W–L	Win rate
Cerundolo	2–6	25.0%
Alcaraz	2–5	28.6%
De Minaur	2–5	28.6%
Davidovich Fokina	6–0	100.0%
Brooksby	4–1	80.0%

Elite H2H is sparse for many mid-ranked players; only rows with multiple meetings are shown. Use these as matchup modifiers, not as a substitute for surface form.

Favourite vs underdog split

Role	Matches	Win rate
Favourite	132	78.0%
Underdog	96	47.9%

Favourite vs underdog win rate, Tommy Paul, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match odds via tennispredictor.net

What the betting market misses about Tommy Paul

Back Tommy Paul when:

• on indoors (75.0% over 24 matches)
• when priced as favourite (78.0% conversion, n=132)
• in first-round spots (79.7% over 59 matches)
• during strong 2026 form (68.5% over 54 matches)

Fade Tommy Paul when:

• on clay (61.4%)
• in R3 or later (54.3% at R3)
• against top-tier opponents with repeated negative H2H (e.g. Cerundolo 2–6)

For live slate context, open the predictions dashboard rather than relying on a static profile alone.

How our model treats Tommy Paul

The ensemble weights surface win-rate history, recent form (last 5 / last 10), and tournament-tier context most heavily for a rank-21–50 profile like this. Favourite/underdog conversion is a secondary prior when odds history is dense enough (here: 228 matches with usable prices). Uncertainty rises when the next match is on clay or in a deep-draw round where Paul's historical conversion collapses.

Frequently asked questions

What is Tommy Paul's overall win rate in this study?

65.9% across 270 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026.

Which surface shows the highest win rate?

Indoors at 75.0% (24 matches).

How often does Tommy Paul win when installed as favourite?

78.0% over 132 favourite-priced matches in the cache (usable odds only).

How does Tommy Paul perform at Grand Slams vs regular events?

Grand Slam win rate is 70.8% (46–19), versus 65.9% overall.

Who is Tommy Paul's toughest matchup in the data?

Among repeated elite meetings: Cerundolo (2–6).

When is Tommy Paul worth backing or fading based on this data?

Back when on indoors (75.0% over 24 matches) / when priced as favourite (78.0% conversion, n=132) / in first-round spots (79.7% over 59 matches). Fade when on clay (61.4%) / in R3 or later (54.3% at R3).

How reliable are these statistics given the sample size?

270 matches is a standard profile sample; surface and favourite splits with n≥15 are the most trustworthy rows.

How does your model handle Tommy Paul's surface and form swings?

It re-weights recent surface form and does not treat the career overall win rate as a constant prior when the year-by-year table shows large swings (notably the 2026 line at 68.5%).

Conclusion

Tommy Paul at ATP #24 is a ranks-21–50 profile defined by 65.9% overall and reliable favourite conversion at 78.0%. The actionable reads are the surface table, the favourite conversion, the 2026 form line, and the round curve — not the ranking alone.

Watch the North American hard-court swing and any surface-specific weeks to confirm whether current form holds. For related mid-tier profiles, see Frances Tiafoe and Brandon Nakashima.