Ignacio Buse: 55.3% form line in 2026 (38 matches)

Ignacio Buse ranks 36 in the ATP (August 2026 snapshot) and has played 45 ATP main-draw matches in our database from 2022–2026. The headline number — 53.3% overall win rate — frames a clear mid-tier profile, but the 55.3% mark in 2026 (38 matches) shows a live uptick. The paradox worth betting on: 55.3% form line in 2026 (38 matches). The sample is still thin but publishable (45 matches) — treat deep splits cautiously.

Key metrics at a glance

Metric	Value
Overall win rate	53.3%
ATP rank (snapshot)	36
Matches analysed	45 (2022–2026)
Best surface	Clay — 54.8%
Weakest surface	Hard — 50.0%
Grand Slam win rate	25.0% (1–3)
As favourite	88.9% (n=9)
As underdog	46.2% (n=13)

Buse's year-by-year record

Year	Matches	Wins	Win rate
2025	7	3	42.9%
2026	38	21	55.3%

Win rate by season, Ignacio Buse, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Year-to-year movement shows where the market should update fastest. The 2026 form at 55.3% and the year table are the primary form anchors for live pricing — not a single career average.

Surface breakdown: where the edge lives

Surface	Matches	Win rate
Clay	31	54.8%
Hard	8	50.0%
Grass	6	50.0%

Win rate by surface, Ignacio Buse, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Surface is the first filter before round or opponent quality. Compare clay baselines in the clay-court betting guide and grass patterns in the grass-court specificity guide when translating these rates into match previews.

Tournament tier: reliability by event level

Tournament level	Matches	Win rate
ATP 500	17	70.6%
ATP 250	17	52.9%
Masters 1000	7	28.6%
Grand Slam	4	25.0%

Win rate by tournament tier, Ignacio Buse, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Grand Slam and Masters samples matter most for pricing; ATP 250/500 volume often inflates or deflates the headline win rate. Cross-check against Francisco Cerundolo or Mariano Navone for other ranks-21–50 archetypes.

Round-by-round: early rounds vs deep runs

Round	Matches	Win rate
R1	20	55.0%
R2	6	16.7%
R16	9	55.6%
QF	5	80.0%
SF	4	50.0%
F	1	100.0%

Win rate by round, Ignacio Buse, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Round curves separate true closers from early-round specialists. Use the drop from early rounds into deeper stages as a fade signal even when the overall win rate looks acceptable — the same structural idea as Rublev's late-round ceiling.

H2H against elite rivals

Rival	W–L	Win rate
Cerundolo	1–1	50.0%
Djere	1–1	50.0%
Berrettini	2–0	100.0%
Walton	1–1	50.0%
Kopriva	1–1	50.0%

Elite H2H is sparse for many mid-ranked players; only rows with multiple meetings are shown. Use these as matchup modifiers, not as a substitute for surface form.

Favourite vs underdog split

Role	Matches	Win rate
Favourite	9	88.9%
Underdog	13	46.2%

Favourite vs underdog win rate, Ignacio Buse, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match odds via tennispredictor.net

What the betting market misses about Ignacio Buse

Back Ignacio Buse when:

• on clay (54.8% over 31 matches)
• in first-round spots (55.0% over 20 matches)
• during strong 2026 form (55.3% over 38 matches)

Fade Ignacio Buse when:

• on hard (50.0%)

For live slate context, open the predictions dashboard rather than relying on a static profile alone.

How our model treats Ignacio Buse

The ensemble weights surface win-rate history, recent form (last 5 / last 10), and tournament-tier context most heavily for a rank-21–50 profile like this. Favourite/underdog conversion is a secondary prior when odds history is dense enough (here: 22 matches with usable prices). Uncertainty rises when the next match is on hard or in a deep-draw round where Buse's historical conversion collapses.

Frequently asked questions

What is Ignacio Buse's overall win rate in this study?

53.3% across 45 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026.

Which surface shows the highest win rate?

Clay at 54.8% (31 matches).

How often does Ignacio Buse win when installed as favourite?

88.9% over 9 favourite-priced matches in the cache (usable odds only).

How does Ignacio Buse perform at Grand Slams vs regular events?

Grand Slam win rate is 25.0% (1–3), versus 53.3% overall.

Who is Ignacio Buse's toughest matchup in the data?

Among repeated elite meetings: Cerundolo (1–1).

When is Ignacio Buse worth backing or fading based on this data?

Back when on clay (54.8% over 31 matches) / in first-round spots (55.0% over 20 matches) / during strong 2026 form (55.3% over 38 matches). Fade when on hard (50.0%).

How reliable are these statistics given the sample size?

45 matches is a thin profile sample; surface and favourite splits with n≥15 are the most trustworthy rows.

How does your model handle Ignacio Buse's surface and form swings?

It re-weights recent surface form and does not treat the career overall win rate as a constant prior when the year-by-year table shows large swings (notably the 2026 line at 55.3%).

Conclusion

Ignacio Buse at ATP #36 is a ranks-21–50 profile defined by 53.3% overall and 55.3% form line in 2026 (38 matches). The actionable reads are the surface table, the favourite conversion, the 2026 form line, and the round curve — not the ranking alone.

Watch the North American hard-court swing and any surface-specific weeks to confirm whether current form holds. For related mid-tier profiles, see Thiago Tirante and Zizou Bergs.