Thiago Tirante: Hard specialist edge (61.1%) vs Indoors at 0.0%

Thiago Tirante ranks 50 in the ATP (August 2026 snapshot) and has played 62 ATP main-draw matches in our database from 2022–2026. The headline number — 58.1% overall win rate — frames a clear mid-tier profile, but the 64.3% mark in 2026 (42 matches) shows a live uptick. The paradox worth betting on: Hard specialist edge (61.1%) vs Indoors at 0.0%. The sample is still thin but publishable (62 matches) — treat deep splits cautiously.

Key metrics at a glance

Metric	Value
Overall win rate	58.1%
ATP rank (snapshot)	50
Matches analysed	62 (2022–2026)
Best surface	Hard — 61.1%
Weakest surface	Indoors — 0.0%
Grand Slam win rate	40.0% (4–6)
As favourite	66.7% (n=6)
As underdog	54.2% (n=24)

Tirante's year-by-year record

Year	Matches	Wins	Win rate
2023	4	2	50.0%
2024	10	5	50.0%
2025	6	2	33.3%
2026	42	27	64.3%

Win rate by season, Thiago Tirante, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Year-to-year movement shows where the market should update fastest. The Hard edge vs Indoors floor and the year table are the primary form anchors for live pricing — not a single career average.

Surface breakdown: where the edge lives

Surface	Matches	Win rate
Clay	40	60.0%
Hard	18	61.1%
Grass	3	33.3%
Indoors	1	0.0%

Win rate by surface, Thiago Tirante, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Surface is the first filter before round or opponent quality. Compare clay baselines in the clay-court betting guide and grass patterns in the grass-court specificity guide when translating these rates into match previews.

Tournament tier: reliability by event level

Tournament level	Matches	Win rate
Masters 1000	21	66.7%
ATP 500	15	60.0%
ATP 250	16	56.2%
Grand Slam	10	40.0%

Win rate by tournament tier, Thiago Tirante, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Grand Slam and Masters samples matter most for pricing; ATP 250/500 volume often inflates or deflates the headline win rate. Cross-check against Francisco Cerundolo or Alejandro Tabilo for other ranks-21–50 archetypes.

Round-by-round: early rounds vs deep runs

Round	Matches	Win rate
R1	26	76.9%
R2	10	60.0%
R3	6	50.0%
R16	13	38.5%
QF	5	40.0%
SF	2	0.0%

Win rate by round, Thiago Tirante, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Round curves separate true closers from early-round specialists. Use the drop from early rounds into deeper stages as a fade signal even when the overall win rate looks acceptable — the same structural idea as Rublev's late-round ceiling.

H2H against elite rivals

Rival	W–L	Win rate
Davidovich Fokina	2–1	66.7%
Tabilo	0–3	0.0%
Faria	2–0	100.0%
Cobolli	2–0	100.0%
Cerundolo	1–1	50.0%

Elite H2H is sparse for many mid-ranked players; only rows with multiple meetings are shown. Use these as matchup modifiers, not as a substitute for surface form.

Favourite vs underdog split

Role	Matches	Win rate
Favourite	6	66.7%
Underdog	24	54.2%

Favourite vs underdog win rate, Thiago Tirante, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match odds via tennispredictor.net

What the betting market misses about Thiago Tirante

Back Thiago Tirante when:

• on hard (61.1% over 18 matches)
• in first-round spots (76.9% over 26 matches)
• during strong 2026 form (64.3% over 42 matches)

Fade Thiago Tirante when:

• on indoors (0.0%)
• in R16 or later (38.5% at R16)
• against top-tier opponents with repeated negative H2H (e.g. Tabilo 0–3)

For live slate context, open the predictions dashboard rather than relying on a static profile alone.

How our model treats Thiago Tirante

The ensemble weights surface win-rate history, recent form (last 5 / last 10), and tournament-tier context most heavily for a rank-21–50 profile like this. Favourite/underdog conversion is a secondary prior when odds history is dense enough (here: 30 matches with usable prices). Uncertainty rises when the next match is on indoors or in a deep-draw round where Tirante's historical conversion collapses.

Frequently asked questions

What is Thiago Tirante's overall win rate in this study?

58.1% across 62 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026.

Which surface shows the highest win rate?

Hard at 61.1% (18 matches).

How often does Thiago Tirante win when installed as favourite?

66.7% over 6 favourite-priced matches in the cache (usable odds only).

How does Thiago Tirante perform at Grand Slams vs regular events?

Grand Slam win rate is 40.0% (4–6), versus 58.1% overall.

Who is Thiago Tirante's toughest matchup in the data?

Among repeated elite meetings: Tabilo (0–3).

When is Thiago Tirante worth backing or fading based on this data?

Back when on hard (61.1% over 18 matches) / in first-round spots (76.9% over 26 matches) / during strong 2026 form (64.3% over 42 matches). Fade when on indoors (0.0%) / in R16 or later (38.5% at R16).

How reliable are these statistics given the sample size?

62 matches is a thin profile sample; surface and favourite splits with n≥15 are the most trustworthy rows.

How does your model handle Thiago Tirante's surface and form swings?

It re-weights recent surface form and does not treat the career overall win rate as a constant prior when the year-by-year table shows large swings (notably the 2026 line at 64.3%).

Conclusion

Thiago Tirante at ATP #50 is a ranks-21–50 profile defined by 58.1% overall and Hard specialist edge (61.1%) vs Indoors at 0.0%. The actionable reads are the surface table, the favourite conversion, the 2026 form line, and the round curve — not the ranking alone.

Watch the North American hard-court swing and any surface-specific weeks to confirm whether current form holds. For related mid-tier profiles, see Francisco Cerundolo and Mariano Navone.