Flavio Cobolli ATP analysis: top-20 profile and betting read

Flavio Cobolli ranks #6 in the ATP (rankings snapshot 2026-08-31) and has played 178 ATP main-draw matches in our database from 2022–2026 (tournament cache through 2026-09-08). The headline number — 57.9% overall win rate — frames a clear top-20 profile, with 67.2% across 58 matches in 2026 (an uptick vs career). The paradox worth pricing: favourite conversion at 76.9% (23.1% upset risk).

Key metrics at a glance

Metric	Value
Overall win rate	57.9%
ATP rank (snapshot)	6
Matches analysed	178 (2022–2026)
Best surface	Clay — 64.9%
Weakest surface	Indoors — 33.3%
Grand Slam win rate	66.7% (26–13)
As favourite	76.9% (n=39)
As underdog	51.9% (n=77)

Cobolli's year-by-year record

Year	Matches	Wins	Win rate
2022	3	0	0.0%
2023	7	3	42.9%
2024	56	32	57.1%
2025	54	29	53.7%
2026	58	39	67.2%

Win rate by season, Flavio Cobolli, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Year-to-year movement shows where the market should update fastest. The favourite conversion at 76.9% and the year table are the primary form anchors for live pricing — not a single career average.

Surface breakdown: where the edge lives

Surface	Matches	Win rate
Clay	74	64.9%
Hard	67	55.2%
Grass	22	59.1%
Indoors	15	33.3%

Win rate by surface, Flavio Cobolli, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Surface is the first filter before round or opponent quality. Compare clay baselines in the clay-court betting guide and grass patterns in the grass-court specificity guide when translating these rates into match previews.

Tournament tier: reliability by event level

Tournament level	Matches	Win rate
Grand Slam	39	66.7%
ATP 250	25	64.0%
ATP 500	67	56.7%
Masters 1000	47	48.9%

Win rate by tournament tier, Flavio Cobolli, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Grand Slam and Masters samples matter most for pricing top-20 players; ATP 250/500 volume can inflate or deflate the headline win rate. Cross-check against Arthur Fils or Lorenzo Musetti for peer archetypes.

Round-by-round: early rounds vs deep runs

Round	Matches	Win rate
R1	59	61.0%
R2	31	64.5%
R3	17	41.2%
R16	34	58.8%
QF	20	50.0%
SF	10	70.0%
F	7	42.9%

Win rate by round, Flavio Cobolli, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Round curves separate true closers from early-round specialists. Use the drop from early rounds into deeper stages as a fade signal even when the overall win rate looks elite — the same structural idea as Rublev's late-round ceiling.

H2H against elite rivals

Rival	W–L	Win rate
Shelton	2–4	33.3%
Zverev	1–5	16.7%
Tiafoe	1–4	20.0%
Kecmanovic	3–1	75.0%
Arnaldi	3–1	75.0%

Elite H2H is the matchup modifier on top of surface form. Prefer rows with multiple meetings; single-sample rivalries are noise.

Favourite vs underdog split

Role	Matches	Win rate
Favourite	39	76.9%
Underdog	77	51.9%

Favourite vs underdog win rate, Flavio Cobolli, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match odds via tennispredictor.net

What the betting market misses about Flavio Cobolli

Back Flavio Cobolli when:

• on clay (64.9% over 74 matches)
• when priced as favourite (76.9% conversion, n=39)
• during strong 2026 form (67.2% over 58 matches)

Fade Flavio Cobolli when:

• on indoors (33.3%)
• in R3 or later (41.2% at R3)
• against repeated negative H2H (e.g. Zverev 1–5)

For live slate context, open the predictions dashboard rather than relying on a static profile alone.

How our model treats Flavio Cobolli

The ensemble weights surface win-rate history, recent form (last 5 / last 10), and tournament-tier context most heavily for a top-20 profile like this. Favourite/underdog conversion is a strong secondary prior when odds history is dense (here: 116 matches with usable prices). Uncertainty rises when the next match is on indoors or in a deep-draw round where Cobolli's historical conversion collapses.

Frequently asked questions

What is Flavio Cobolli's overall win rate in this study?

57.9% across 178 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026.

Which surface shows the highest win rate?

Clay at 64.9% (74 matches).

How often does Flavio Cobolli win when installed as favourite?

76.9% over 39 favourite-priced matches in the cache (usable odds only).

How does Flavio Cobolli perform at Grand Slams vs regular events?

Grand Slam win rate is 66.7% (26–13), versus 57.9% overall.

Who is Flavio Cobolli's toughest matchup in the data?

Among repeated meetings: Zverev (1–5).

When is Flavio Cobolli worth backing or fading based on this data?

Back when on clay (64.9% over 74 matches) / when priced as favourite (76.9% conversion, n=39) / during strong 2026 form (67.2% over 58 matches). Fade when on indoors (33.3%) / in R3 or later (41.2% at R3).

How reliable are these statistics given the sample size?

178 matches is a solid top-20 sample; surface and favourite splits with n≥15 are the most trustworthy rows. Cache through 2026-09-08.

How does your model handle Flavio Cobolli's surface and form swings?

It re-weights recent surface form and does not treat the career overall win rate as a constant prior when the year-by-year table shows large swings (notably the 2026 line at 67.2%).

Conclusion

Flavio Cobolli at ATP #6 is a top-20 profile defined by 57.9% overall and favourite conversion at 76.9% (23.1% upset risk). The actionable reads are the surface table, the favourite conversion, the 2026 form line, and the round curve — not the ranking alone.

Watch hard-court swings and any surface-specific weeks to confirm whether current form holds. For related profiles, see Arthur Fils and Lorenzo Musetti.