Joao Fonseca ATP Analysis: Brazilian Breakout with Clay Roots
Joao Fonseca ranks #27 in the live ATP standings and has 60 matches in our raw tournament cache from 2022–2026 at a 56.7% overall win rate. The data paints a clear picture: fast-rising youngster with indoor and clay strength. 61.5% in 2025 and 100% in two finals — small sample, loud signal.
Key metrics at a glance
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Overall win rate (OWR) | 56.7% |
| Matches in dataset | 60 (2022–2026) |
| Best surface | Indoors — 75.0% |
| Worst surface | Grass — 42.9% |
| As favourite | 13 matches — 69.2% |
| As underdog | 47 matches — 53.2% |
| Current ATP ranking | #27 (July 2026) |
Year-by-year record
| Year | Matches | Wins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 2024 | 10 | 5 | 50.0% |
| 2025 | 39 | 24 | 61.5% |
| 2026 | 10 | 5 | 50.0% |
Win rate by season, Joao Fonseca, 2022–2026. Source: raw tournament cache via tennispredictor.net
Surface breakdown
| Surface | Matches | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 25 | 56.0% |
| Hard | 20 | 55.0% |
| Indoors | 8 | 75.0% |
| Grass | 7 | 42.9% |
Win rate by surface, Joao Fonseca, 2022–2026. Source: raw tournament cache via tennispredictor.net
Indoors is the strongest surface (75.0%); Grass is the floor (42.9%). For match predictions, see the live dashboard.
Round-by-round profile
| Round | Matches | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| R1 | 27 | 66.7% |
| R2 | 12 | 41.7% |
| R3 | 5 | 20.0% |
| R16 | 8 | 50.0% |
| QF | 4 | 50.0% |
| SF | 2 | 100.0% |
| F | 2 | 100.0% |
Win rate by round, Joao Fonseca, 2022–2026. Source: raw tournament cache via tennispredictor.net
Head-to-head vs frequent rivals
| Opponent | Record | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Tabilo | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| Sonego | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| Navone | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| Davidovich Fokina | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| Draper | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| Fearnley | 2-0 | 100.0% |
H2H win rate vs rivals with 2+ meetings, Joao Fonseca. Source: raw tournament cache via tennispredictor.net
Market role: favourite vs underdog
Win rate as market favourite vs underdog, Joao Fonseca, 2022–2026. Source: raw tournament cache via tennispredictor.net
As favourite (13 matches): 69.2%. As underdog (47 matches): 53.2%.
What the betting market misses
The market often prices Joao Fonseca on reputation and ranking snapshots rather than surface-specific cache win rates. The 75.0% Indoors figure and 42.9% Grass floor are the first filters — back aggressively on the strong surface, respect the weak one.
61.5% in 2025 and 100% in two finals — small sample, loud signal is the second filter for draw-stage betting.
How our model treats Fonseca
The ensemble weights recent-form windows, surface splits, and market role. Joao Fonseca enters the top-20 player pool with live rank #27; see also:
- Compare with Cerundolo Atp Player Analysis
- Compare with Darderi Atp Player Analysis
- Compare with Cobolli Atp Player Analysis
Frequently asked questions
What is Joao Fonseca's overall win rate in this dataset?
56.7% across 60 matches (2022–2026) in the raw tournament cache.
What is Joao Fonseca's best surface?
Indoors at 75.0% over 8 matches.
When is Joao Fonseca worth backing as favourite?
When the market makes him favourite, the cache shows 69.2% (13 matches) — strong conversion.
How fresh is this data?
Stats are drawn from data/cache/tournaments through 2026; ATP rank from unified_rankings.json scraped July 2026.
See today's match predictions with confidence scores and value signals.
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