Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: 58.5% form line in 2026 (41 matches)

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ranks #26 in the ATP (October 2026 snapshot) and has played 239 ATP main-draw matches in our database from 2022–2026. The headline number — 54.0% overall win rate — frames a clear mid-tier profile, but the 58.5% mark in 2026 (41 matches) shows a live uptick. The paradox worth betting on: 58.5% form line in 2026 (41 matches).

Key metrics at a glance

Metric	Value
Overall win rate	54.0%
ATP rank (snapshot)	26
Matches analysed	239 (2022–2026)
Best surface	Grass — 59.4%
Weakest surface	Indoors — 46.7%
Grand Slam win rate	60.0% (27–18)
As favourite	62.9% (n=89)
As underdog	33.3% (n=78)

Davidovich Fokina's year-by-year record

Year	Matches	Wins	Win rate
2022	47	21	44.7%
2023	49	27	55.1%
2024	32	13	40.6%
2025	70	44	62.9%
2026	41	24	58.5%

Win rate by season, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Year-to-year movement shows where the market should update fastest. The 2026 form at 58.5% and the year table are the primary form anchors for live pricing — not a single career average.

Surface breakdown: where the edge lives

Surface	Matches	Win rate
Hard	108	54.6%
Clay	69	53.6%
Grass	32	59.4%
Indoors	30	46.7%

Win rate by surface, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Surface is the first filter before round or opponent quality. Compare clay baselines in the clay-court betting guide and grass patterns in the grass-court specificity guide when translating these rates into match previews.

Tournament tier: reliability by event level

Tournament level	Matches	Win rate
Grand Slam	45	60.0%
ATP 500	90	54.4%
Masters 1000	74	51.4%
ATP 250	30	50.0%

Win rate by tournament tier, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Grand Slam and Masters samples matter most for pricing; ATP 250/500 volume often inflates or deflates the headline win rate. Cross-check against Francisco Cerundolo or Lorenzo Musetti for other ranks-21–50 archetypes.

Round-by-round: early rounds vs deep runs

Round	Matches	Win rate
R1	82	64.6%
R2	49	57.1%
R3	20	35.0%
R16	48	50.0%
QF	24	41.7%
SF	10	60.0%
F	6	16.7%

Win rate by round, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Round curves separate true closers from early-round specialists. Use the drop from early rounds into deeper stages as a fade signal even when the overall win rate looks acceptable — the same structural idea as Rublev's late-round ceiling.

H2H against elite rivals

Rival	W–L	Win rate
Rublev	1–6	14.3%
Fritz	3–3	50.0%
Paul	0–6	0.0%
Mensik	5–1	83.3%
Auger Aliassime	1–4	20.0%

Elite H2H is sparse for many mid-ranked players; only rows with multiple meetings are shown. Use these as matchup modifiers, not as a substitute for surface form.

Favourite vs underdog split

Role	Matches	Win rate
Favourite	89	62.9%
Underdog	78	33.3%

Favourite vs underdog win rate, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match odds via tennispredictor.net

What the betting market misses about Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Back Alejandro Davidovich Fokina when:

• on grass (59.4% over 32 matches)
• when priced as favourite (62.9% conversion, n=89)
• in first-round spots (64.6% over 82 matches)
• during strong 2026 form (58.5% over 41 matches)

Fade Alejandro Davidovich Fokina when:

• on indoors (46.7%)
• in R3 or later (35.0% at R3)
• against top-tier opponents with repeated negative H2H (e.g. Paul 0–6)

For live slate context, open the predictions dashboard rather than relying on a static profile alone.

How our model treats Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

The ensemble weights surface win-rate history, recent form (last 5 / last 10), and tournament-tier context most heavily for a rank-21–50 profile like this. Favourite/underdog conversion is a secondary prior when odds history is dense enough (here: 167 matches with usable prices). Uncertainty rises when the next match is on indoors or in a deep-draw round where Davidovich Fokina's historical conversion collapses.

Frequently asked questions

What is Alejandro Davidovich Fokina's overall win rate in this study?

54.0% across 239 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026.

Which surface shows the highest win rate?

Grass at 59.4% (32 matches).

How often does Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win when installed as favourite?

62.9% over 89 favourite-priced matches in the cache (usable odds only).

How does Alejandro Davidovich Fokina perform at Grand Slams vs regular events?

Grand Slam win rate is 60.0% (27–18), versus 54.0% overall.

Who is Alejandro Davidovich Fokina's toughest matchup in the data?

Among repeated elite meetings: Paul (0–6).

When is Alejandro Davidovich Fokina worth backing or fading based on this data?

Back when on grass (59.4% over 32 matches) / when priced as favourite (62.9% conversion, n=89) / in first-round spots (64.6% over 82 matches). Fade when on indoors (46.7%) / in R3 or later (35.0% at R3).

How reliable are these statistics given the sample size?

239 matches is a standard profile sample; surface and favourite splits with n≥15 are the most trustworthy rows.

How does your model handle Alejandro Davidovich Fokina's surface and form swings?

It re-weights recent surface form and does not treat the career overall win rate as a constant prior when the year-by-year table shows large swings (notably the 2026 line at 58.5%).

Conclusion

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina at ATP #26 is a ranks-21–50 profile defined by 54.0% overall and 58.5% form line in 2026 (41 matches). The actionable reads are the surface table, the favourite conversion, the 2026 form line, and the round curve — not the ranking alone.

Watch the North American hard-court swing and any surface-specific weeks to confirm whether current form holds. For related mid-tier profiles, see Jaume Munar and Karen Khachanov.