Tomas Martin Etcheverry: reliable favourite conversion at 70.0%

Tomas Martin Etcheverry ranks 31 in the ATP (August 2026 snapshot) and has played 199 ATP main-draw matches in our database from 2022–2026. The headline number — 46.7% overall win rate — frames a clear mid-tier profile, but the 51.1% mark in 2026 (45 matches) shows a live uptick. The paradox worth betting on: reliable favourite conversion at 70.0%.

Key metrics at a glance

Metric	Value
Overall win rate	46.7%
ATP rank (snapshot)	31
Matches analysed	199 (2022–2026)
Best surface	Clay — 53.7%
Weakest surface	Grass — 23.5%
Grand Slam win rate	48.6% (18–19)
As favourite	70.0% (n=50)
As underdog	33.7% (n=95)

Etcheverry's year-by-year record

Year	Matches	Wins	Win rate
2022	17	3	17.6%
2023	46	24	52.2%
2024	39	19	48.7%
2025	52	24	46.2%
2026	45	23	51.1%

Win rate by season, Tomas Martin Etcheverry, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Year-to-year movement shows where the market should update fastest. The favourite conversion at 70.0% and the year table are the primary form anchors for live pricing — not a single career average.

Surface breakdown: where the edge lives

Surface	Matches	Win rate
Clay	108	53.7%
Hard	62	38.7%
Grass	17	23.5%
Indoors	10	50.0%
Unknown	2	100.0%

Win rate by surface, Tomas Martin Etcheverry, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Surface is the first filter before round or opponent quality. Compare clay baselines in the clay-court betting guide and grass patterns in the grass-court specificity guide when translating these rates into match previews.

Tournament tier: reliability by event level

Tournament level	Matches	Win rate
ATP 250	65	53.8%
Grand Slam	37	48.6%
ATP 500	51	43.1%
Masters 1000	46	39.1%

Win rate by tournament tier, Tomas Martin Etcheverry, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Grand Slam and Masters samples matter most for pricing; ATP 250/500 volume often inflates or deflates the headline win rate. Cross-check against Tommy Paul or Francisco Cerundolo for other ranks-21–50 archetypes.

Round-by-round: early rounds vs deep runs

Round	Matches	Win rate
R1	88	52.3%
R2	35	34.3%
R3	10	30.0%
R16	36	52.8%
QF	18	50.0%
SF	9	33.3%
F	3	33.3%

Win rate by round, Tomas Martin Etcheverry, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Round curves separate true closers from early-round specialists. Use the drop from early rounds into deeper stages as a fade signal even when the overall win rate looks acceptable — the same structural idea as Rublev's late-round ceiling.

H2H against elite rivals

Rival	W–L	Win rate
Cerundolo	3–3	50.0%
Borges	0–5	0.0%
Kecmanovic	3–1	75.0%
Jarry	2–2	50.0%
Lehecka	1–2	33.3%

Elite H2H is sparse for many mid-ranked players; only rows with multiple meetings are shown. Use these as matchup modifiers, not as a substitute for surface form.

Favourite vs underdog split

Role	Matches	Win rate
Favourite	50	70.0%
Underdog	95	33.7%

Favourite vs underdog win rate, Tomas Martin Etcheverry, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match odds via tennispredictor.net

What the betting market misses about Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Back Tomas Martin Etcheverry when:

• on clay (53.7% over 108 matches)
• when priced as favourite (70.0% conversion, n=50)
• in first-round spots (52.3% over 88 matches)
• during strong 2026 form (51.1% over 45 matches)

Fade Tomas Martin Etcheverry when:

• on grass (23.5%)
• in R3 or later (30.0% at R3)
• against top-tier opponents with repeated negative H2H (e.g. Borges 0–5)

For live slate context, open the predictions dashboard rather than relying on a static profile alone.

How our model treats Tomas Martin Etcheverry

The ensemble weights surface win-rate history, recent form (last 5 / last 10), and tournament-tier context most heavily for a rank-21–50 profile like this. Favourite/underdog conversion is a secondary prior when odds history is dense enough (here: 145 matches with usable prices). Uncertainty rises when the next match is on grass or in a deep-draw round where Etcheverry's historical conversion collapses.

Frequently asked questions

What is Tomas Martin Etcheverry's overall win rate in this study?

46.7% across 199 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026.

Which surface shows the highest win rate?

Clay at 53.7% (108 matches).

How often does Tomas Martin Etcheverry win when installed as favourite?

70.0% over 50 favourite-priced matches in the cache (usable odds only).

How does Tomas Martin Etcheverry perform at Grand Slams vs regular events?

Grand Slam win rate is 48.6% (18–19), versus 46.7% overall.

Who is Tomas Martin Etcheverry's toughest matchup in the data?

Among repeated elite meetings: Borges (0–5).

When is Tomas Martin Etcheverry worth backing or fading based on this data?

Back when on clay (53.7% over 108 matches) / when priced as favourite (70.0% conversion, n=50) / in first-round spots (52.3% over 88 matches). Fade when on grass (23.5%) / in R3 or later (30.0% at R3).

How reliable are these statistics given the sample size?

199 matches is a standard profile sample; surface and favourite splits with n≥15 are the most trustworthy rows.

How does your model handle Tomas Martin Etcheverry's surface and form swings?

It re-weights recent surface form and does not treat the career overall win rate as a constant prior when the year-by-year table shows large swings (notably the 2026 line at 51.1%).

Conclusion

Tomas Martin Etcheverry at ATP #31 is a ranks-21–50 profile defined by 46.7% overall and reliable favourite conversion at 70.0%. The actionable reads are the surface table, the favourite conversion, the 2026 form line, and the round curve — not the ranking alone.

Watch the North American hard-court swing and any surface-specific weeks to confirm whether current form holds. For related mid-tier profiles, see Mariano Navone and Francisco Cerundolo.