Raphaël Collignon: Clay specialist edge (52.6%) vs Grass at 33.3%

Raphaël Collignon ranks 38 in the ATP (August 2026 snapshot) and has played 46 ATP main-draw matches in our database from 2022–2026. The headline number — 45.7% overall win rate — frames a clear mid-tier profile, but the 50.0% mark in 2026 (30 matches) shows a live uptick. The paradox worth betting on: Clay specialist edge (52.6%) vs Grass at 33.3%. The sample is still thin but publishable (46 matches) — treat deep splits cautiously.

Key metrics at a glance

Metric	Value
Overall win rate	45.7%
ATP rank (snapshot)	38
Matches analysed	46 (2022–2026)
Best surface	Clay — 52.6%
Weakest surface	Grass — 33.3%
Grand Slam win rate	44.4% (4–5)
As favourite	100.0% (n=5)
As underdog	41.2% (n=17)

Collignon's year-by-year record

Year	Matches	Wins	Win rate
2025	16	6	37.5%
2026	30	15	50.0%

Win rate by season, Raphaël Collignon, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Year-to-year movement shows where the market should update fastest. The Clay edge vs Grass floor and the year table are the primary form anchors for live pricing — not a single career average.

Surface breakdown: where the edge lives

Surface	Matches	Win rate
Clay	19	52.6%
Hard	15	40.0%
Indoors	6	50.0%
Grass	6	33.3%

Win rate by surface, Raphaël Collignon, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Surface is the first filter before round or opponent quality. Compare clay baselines in the clay-court betting guide and grass patterns in the grass-court specificity guide when translating these rates into match previews.

Tournament tier: reliability by event level

Tournament level	Matches	Win rate
ATP 250	15	53.3%
Grand Slam	9	44.4%
ATP 500	16	43.8%
Masters 1000	6	33.3%

Win rate by tournament tier, Raphaël Collignon, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Grand Slam and Masters samples matter most for pricing; ATP 250/500 volume often inflates or deflates the headline win rate. Cross-check against Tommy Paul or Francisco Cerundolo for other ranks-21–50 archetypes.

Round-by-round: early rounds vs deep runs

Round	Matches	Win rate
R1	23	43.5%
R2	6	66.7%
R3	4	0.0%
R16	6	66.7%
QF	4	50.0%
SF	2	50.0%
F	1	0.0%

Win rate by round, Raphaël Collignon, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Round curves separate true closers from early-round specialists. Use the drop from early rounds into deeper stages as a fade signal even when the overall win rate looks acceptable — the same structural idea as Rublev's late-round ceiling.

H2H against elite rivals

Rival	W–L	Win rate
Ruud	1–1	50.0%
Nakashima	0–2	0.0%
Dimitrov	2–0	100.0%
Popyrin	1–1	50.0%
Cerundolo	1–1	50.0%

Elite H2H is sparse for many mid-ranked players; only rows with multiple meetings are shown. Use these as matchup modifiers, not as a substitute for surface form.

Favourite vs underdog split

Role	Matches	Win rate
Favourite	5	100.0%
Underdog	17	41.2%

Favourite vs underdog win rate, Raphaël Collignon, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match odds via tennispredictor.net

What the betting market misses about Raphaël Collignon

Back Raphaël Collignon when:

• on clay (52.6% over 19 matches)
• in first-round spots (43.5% over 23 matches)
• during strong 2026 form (50.0% over 30 matches)

Fade Raphaël Collignon when:

• on grass (33.3%)

For live slate context, open the predictions dashboard rather than relying on a static profile alone.

How our model treats Raphaël Collignon

The ensemble weights surface win-rate history, recent form (last 5 / last 10), and tournament-tier context most heavily for a rank-21–50 profile like this. Favourite/underdog conversion is a secondary prior when odds history is dense enough (here: 22 matches with usable prices). Uncertainty rises when the next match is on grass or in a deep-draw round where Collignon's historical conversion collapses.

Frequently asked questions

What is Raphaël Collignon's overall win rate in this study?

45.7% across 46 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026.

Which surface shows the highest win rate?

Clay at 52.6% (19 matches).

How often does Raphaël Collignon win when installed as favourite?

100.0% over 5 favourite-priced matches in the cache (usable odds only).

How does Raphaël Collignon perform at Grand Slams vs regular events?

Grand Slam win rate is 44.4% (4–5), versus 45.7% overall.

Who is Raphaël Collignon's toughest matchup in the data?

Among repeated elite meetings: Nakashima (0–2).

When is Raphaël Collignon worth backing or fading based on this data?

Back when on clay (52.6% over 19 matches) / in first-round spots (43.5% over 23 matches) / during strong 2026 form (50.0% over 30 matches). Fade when on grass (33.3%).

How reliable are these statistics given the sample size?

46 matches is a thin profile sample; surface and favourite splits with n≥15 are the most trustworthy rows.

How does your model handle Raphaël Collignon's surface and form swings?

It re-weights recent surface form and does not treat the career overall win rate as a constant prior when the year-by-year table shows large swings (notably the 2026 line at 50.0%).

Conclusion

Raphaël Collignon at ATP #38 is a ranks-21–50 profile defined by 45.7% overall and Clay specialist edge (52.6%) vs Grass at 33.3%. The actionable reads are the surface table, the favourite conversion, the 2026 form line, and the round curve — not the ranking alone.

Watch the North American hard-court swing and any surface-specific weeks to confirm whether current form holds. For related mid-tier profiles, see Zizou Bergs and Arthur Rinderknech.