Corentin Moutet: reliable favourite conversion at 69.7%

Corentin Moutet ranks 60 in the ATP (August 2026 snapshot) and has played 152 ATP main-draw matches in our database from 2022–2026. The headline number — 45.4% overall win rate — frames a clear mid-tier profile, but the 28.6% mark in 2026 (28 matches) is the current form anchor. The paradox worth betting on: reliable favourite conversion at 69.7%.

Key metrics at a glance

Metric	Value
Overall win rate	45.4%
ATP rank (snapshot)	60
Matches analysed	152 (2022–2026)
Best surface	Indoors — 52.6%
Weakest surface	Clay — 41.7%
Grand Slam win rate	51.5% (17–16)
As favourite	69.7% (n=33)
As underdog	31.0% (n=71)

Moutet's year-by-year record

Year	Matches	Wins	Win rate
2022	25	14	56.0%
2023	19	6	31.6%
2024	24	10	41.7%
2025	56	31	55.4%
2026	28	8	28.6%

Win rate by season, Corentin Moutet, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Year-to-year movement shows where the market should update fastest. The favourite conversion at 69.7% and the year table are the primary form anchors for live pricing — not a single career average.

Surface breakdown: where the edge lives

Surface	Matches	Win rate
Hard	61	45.9%
Clay	48	41.7%
Grass	24	45.8%
Indoors	19	52.6%

Win rate by surface, Corentin Moutet, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Surface is the first filter before round or opponent quality. Compare clay baselines in the clay-court betting guide and grass patterns in the grass-court specificity guide when translating these rates into match previews.

Tournament tier: reliability by event level

Tournament level	Matches	Win rate
ATP 250	44	54.5%
Grand Slam	33	51.5%
ATP 500	36	38.9%
Masters 1000	39	35.9%

Win rate by tournament tier, Corentin Moutet, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Grand Slam and Masters samples matter most for pricing; ATP 250/500 volume often inflates or deflates the headline win rate. Cross-check against Tommy Paul or Francisco Cerundolo for other ranks-21–50 archetypes.

Round-by-round: early rounds vs deep runs

Round	Matches	Win rate
R1	75	53.3%
R2	28	28.6%
R3	6	50.0%
R16	25	40.0%
QF	10	60.0%
SF	6	33.3%
F	2	0.0%

Win rate by round, Corentin Moutet, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Round curves separate true closers from early-round specialists. Use the drop from early rounds into deeper stages as a fade signal even when the overall win rate looks acceptable — the same structural idea as Rublev's late-round ceiling.

H2H against elite rivals

Rival	W–L	Win rate
Fucsovics	2–1	66.7%
Rune	2–1	66.7%
Safiullin	1–2	33.3%
Carballes Baena	2–1	66.7%
Jarry	2–1	66.7%

Elite H2H is sparse for many mid-ranked players; only rows with multiple meetings are shown. Use these as matchup modifiers, not as a substitute for surface form.

Favourite vs underdog split

Role	Matches	Win rate
Favourite	33	69.7%
Underdog	71	31.0%

Favourite vs underdog win rate, Corentin Moutet, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match odds via tennispredictor.net

What the betting market misses about Corentin Moutet

Back Corentin Moutet when:

• on indoors (52.6% over 19 matches)
• when priced as favourite (69.7% conversion, n=33)
• in first-round spots (53.3% over 75 matches)

Fade Corentin Moutet when:

• on clay (41.7%)
• against top-tier opponents with repeated negative H2H (e.g. Safiullin 1–2)

For live slate context, open the predictions dashboard rather than relying on a static profile alone.

How our model treats Corentin Moutet

The ensemble weights surface win-rate history, recent form (last 5 / last 10), and tournament-tier context most heavily for a rank-21–50 profile like this. Favourite/underdog conversion is a secondary prior when odds history is dense enough (here: 104 matches with usable prices). Uncertainty rises when the next match is on clay or in a deep-draw round where Moutet's historical conversion collapses.

Frequently asked questions

What is Corentin Moutet's overall win rate in this study?

45.4% across 152 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026.

Which surface shows the highest win rate?

Indoors at 52.6% (19 matches).

How often does Corentin Moutet win when installed as favourite?

69.7% over 33 favourite-priced matches in the cache (usable odds only).

How does Corentin Moutet perform at Grand Slams vs regular events?

Grand Slam win rate is 51.5% (17–16), versus 45.4% overall.

Who is Corentin Moutet's toughest matchup in the data?

Among repeated elite meetings: Safiullin (1–2).

When is Corentin Moutet worth backing or fading based on this data?

Back when on indoors (52.6% over 19 matches) / when priced as favourite (69.7% conversion, n=33) / in first-round spots (53.3% over 75 matches). Fade when on clay (41.7%) / against top-tier opponents with repeated negative H2H (e.g. Safiullin 1–2).

How reliable are these statistics given the sample size?

152 matches is a standard profile sample; surface and favourite splits with n≥15 are the most trustworthy rows.

How does your model handle Corentin Moutet's surface and form swings?

It re-weights recent surface form and does not treat the career overall win rate as a constant prior when the year-by-year table shows large swings (notably the 2026 line at 28.6%).

Conclusion

Corentin Moutet at ATP #60 is a ranks-21–50 profile defined by 45.4% overall and reliable favourite conversion at 69.7%. The actionable reads are the surface table, the favourite conversion, the 2026 form line, and the round curve — not the ranking alone.

Watch the North American hard-court swing and any surface-specific weeks to confirm whether current form holds. For related mid-tier profiles, see Ugo Humbert and Arthur Rinderknech.