Corentin Moutet: reliable favourite conversion at 66.7%

Corentin Moutet ranks 40 in the ATP (July 2026 snapshot) and has played 132 ATP main-draw matches in our database from 2022 to 2026. The headline number — 48.5% overall win rate — frames a clear mid-tier profile. The paradox worth betting on: reliable favourite conversion at 66.7%.

Key metrics at a glance

Metric	Value
Overall win rate	48.5%
ATP rank (snapshot)	40
Matches analysed	132 (2022–2026)
Best surface	Grass — 55.6%
Weakest surface	Clay — 45.9%
Grand Slam win rate	54.8% (17–14)
As favourite	66.7% (n=33)
As underdog	33.8% (n=65)

Moutet's year-by-year record

Year	Matches	Wins	Win rate
2022	25	14	56.0%
2023	19	6	31.6%
2024	24	10	41.7%
2025	56	31	55.4%
2026	8	3	37.5%

Win rate by season, Corentin Moutet, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Year-to-year movement shows where the market should update fastest. Peak and trough seasons above are the primary form anchors for live pricing — not a single career average.

Surface breakdown: where the edge lives

Surface	Matches	Win rate
Grass	18	55.6%
Indoors	19	52.6%
Hard	58	46.6%
Clay	37	45.9%

Win rate by surface, Corentin Moutet, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Surface is the first filter before round or opponent quality. Compare clay baselines in the clay-court betting guide and grass patterns in the grass-court specificity guide when translating these rates into match previews.

Tournament tier: reliability by event level

Tournament level	Matches	Win rate
Grand Slam	31	54.8%
Masters 1000	35	37.1%
ATP 500	12	50.0%
ATP 250	54	51.9%

Win rate by tournament tier, Corentin Moutet, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Grand Slam and Masters samples matter most for pricing; ATP 250/500 volume often inflates or deflates the headline win rate. Cross-check against Tommy Paul or Francisco Cerundolo for other ranks-21–50 archetypes.

Round-by-round: early rounds vs deep runs

Round	Matches	Win rate
1R	85	52.9%
2R	24	33.3%
3R	6	50.0%
QF	9	66.7%
SF	6	33.3%
F	2	0.0%

Win rate by round, Corentin Moutet, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Round curves separate true closers from early-round specialists. A drop at QF/SF is a fade signal even when the overall win rate looks healthy — the same structural idea as Rublev's late-round ceiling.

H2H against elite rivals

Rival	W–L	Win rate
Rune	2–1	66.7%
Musetti	1–2	33.3%
Medvedev	2–1	66.7%
Zverev	0–3	0.0%
Sinner	0–2	0.0%
Djokovic	0–2	0.0%

Elite H2H is sparse for many mid-ranked players; only rows with multiple meetings are shown. Use these as matchup modifiers, not as a substitute for surface form.

Favourite vs underdog split

Role	Matches	Win rate
Favourite	33	66.7%
Underdog	65	33.8%

Favourite vs underdog win rate, Corentin Moutet, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match odds via tennispredictor.net

What the betting market misses about Corentin Moutet

Back Corentin Moutet when:

• on grass (55.6% over 18 matches)
• when priced as favourite (66.7% conversion, n=33)
• at Grand Slams (54.8% vs 48.5% overall)

Fade Corentin Moutet when:

• on clay (45.9%)
• as underdog (33.8%, n=65)

For live slate context, open the predictions dashboard rather than relying on a static profile alone.

How our model treats Corentin Moutet

The ensemble weights surface win-rate history, recent form (last 5 / last 10), and tournament-tier context most heavily for a rank-21–50 profile like this. Favourite/underdog conversion is a secondary prior when odds history is dense enough (here: 98 matches with usable prices). Uncertainty rises when the next match is on a thin-sample surface or against an elite rival with a one-sided H2H.

Frequently asked questions

What is Corentin Moutet's overall win rate in this study?

48.5% across 132 ATP main-draw matches from 2022 to 2026.

Which surface shows the highest win rate?

Grass at 55.6% (18 matches).

How often does Corentin Moutet win when installed as favourite?

66.7% over 33 favourite-priced matches in the cache (usable odds only).

How does Corentin Moutet perform at Grand Slams vs regular events?

Grand Slam win rate is 54.8% (17–14), versus 48.5% overall.

Who is Corentin Moutet's toughest matchup in the data?

Among repeated elite meetings: Zverev (0–3).

When is Corentin Moutet worth backing or fading based on this data?

Back when on grass (55.6% over 18 matches) / when priced as favourite (66.7% conversion, n=33). Fade when on clay (45.9%) / as underdog (33.8%, n=65).

How reliable are these statistics given the sample size?

132 matches is a standard profile sample; surface and favourite splits with n≥15 are the most trustworthy rows.

How does your model handle Corentin Moutet's surface and form swings?

It re-weights recent surface form and does not treat the career overall win rate as a constant prior when the year-by-year table shows large swings.

Conclusion

Corentin Moutet at ATP #40 is a ranks-21–50 profile defined by 48.5% overall and reliable favourite conversion at 66.7%. The actionable reads are the surface table, the favourite conversion (66.7%), and the round curve — not the ranking alone.

Watch the next clay/hard swing and any deep-run weeks to confirm whether the 2022–2026 pattern still holds into the second half of 2026. For related mid-tier profiles, see Vacherot and Collignon.