Ethan Quinn: Grass specialist edge (61.5%) vs Clay at 31.2%

Ethan Quinn ranks 58 in the ATP (August 2026 snapshot) and has played 61 ATP main-draw matches in our database from 2022–2026. The headline number — 39.3% overall win rate — frames a clear mid-tier profile, but the 42.9% mark in 2026 (28 matches) shows a live uptick. The paradox worth betting on: Grass specialist edge (61.5%) vs Clay at 31.2%. The sample is still thin but publishable (61 matches) — treat deep splits cautiously.

Key metrics at a glance

Metric	Value
Overall win rate	39.3%
ATP rank (snapshot)	58
Matches analysed	61 (2022–2026)
Best surface	Grass — 61.5%
Weakest surface	Clay — 31.2%
Grand Slam win rate	46.2% (6–7)
As favourite	66.7% (n=3)
As underdog	33.3% (n=18)

Quinn's year-by-year record

Year	Matches	Wins	Win rate
2023	1	0	0.0%
2024	2	0	0.0%
2025	30	12	40.0%
2026	28	12	42.9%

Win rate by season, Ethan Quinn, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Year-to-year movement shows where the market should update fastest. The Grass edge vs Clay floor and the year table are the primary form anchors for live pricing — not a single career average.

Surface breakdown: where the edge lives

Surface	Matches	Win rate
Hard	26	34.6%
Clay	16	31.2%
Grass	13	61.5%
Indoors	6	33.3%

Win rate by surface, Ethan Quinn, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Surface is the first filter before round or opponent quality. Compare clay baselines in the clay-court betting guide and grass patterns in the grass-court specificity guide when translating these rates into match previews.

Tournament tier: reliability by event level

Tournament level	Matches	Win rate
ATP 250	14	50.0%
Grand Slam	13	46.2%
ATP 500	16	37.5%
Masters 1000	18	27.8%

Win rate by tournament tier, Ethan Quinn, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Grand Slam and Masters samples matter most for pricing; ATP 250/500 volume often inflates or deflates the headline win rate. Cross-check against Tommy Paul or Francisco Cerundolo for other ranks-21–50 archetypes.

Round-by-round: early rounds vs deep runs

Round	Matches	Win rate
R1	37	48.6%
R2	9	33.3%
R3	3	0.0%
R16	9	11.1%
QF	1	100.0%
SF	1	100.0%
F	1	0.0%

Win rate by round, Ethan Quinn, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Round curves separate true closers from early-round specialists. Use the drop from early rounds into deeper stages as a fade signal even when the overall win rate looks acceptable — the same structural idea as Rublev's late-round ceiling.

H2H against elite rivals

Rival	W–L	Win rate
Mensik	0–3	0.0%
Griekspoor	1–2	33.3%
Khachanov	1–1	50.0%
Majchrzak	0–2	0.0%
Giron	0–2	0.0%

Elite H2H is sparse for many mid-ranked players; only rows with multiple meetings are shown. Use these as matchup modifiers, not as a substitute for surface form.

Favourite vs underdog split

Role	Matches	Win rate
Favourite	3	66.7%
Underdog	18	33.3%

Favourite vs underdog win rate, Ethan Quinn, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match odds via tennispredictor.net

What the betting market misses about Ethan Quinn

Back Ethan Quinn when:

• on grass (61.5% over 13 matches)
• in first-round spots (48.6% over 37 matches)
• during strong 2026 form (42.9% over 28 matches)

Fade Ethan Quinn when:

• on clay (31.2%)
• in R16 or later (11.1% at R16)
• against top-tier opponents with repeated negative H2H (e.g. Mensik 0–3)

For live slate context, open the predictions dashboard rather than relying on a static profile alone.

How our model treats Ethan Quinn

The ensemble weights surface win-rate history, recent form (last 5 / last 10), and tournament-tier context most heavily for a rank-21–50 profile like this. Favourite/underdog conversion is a secondary prior when odds history is dense enough (here: 21 matches with usable prices). Uncertainty rises when the next match is on clay or in a deep-draw round where Quinn's historical conversion collapses.

Frequently asked questions

What is Ethan Quinn's overall win rate in this study?

39.3% across 61 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026.

Which surface shows the highest win rate?

Grass at 61.5% (13 matches).

How often does Ethan Quinn win when installed as favourite?

66.7% over 3 favourite-priced matches in the cache (usable odds only).

How does Ethan Quinn perform at Grand Slams vs regular events?

Grand Slam win rate is 46.2% (6–7), versus 39.3% overall.

Who is Ethan Quinn's toughest matchup in the data?

Among repeated elite meetings: Mensik (0–3).

When is Ethan Quinn worth backing or fading based on this data?

Back when on grass (61.5% over 13 matches) / in first-round spots (48.6% over 37 matches) / during strong 2026 form (42.9% over 28 matches). Fade when on clay (31.2%) / in R16 or later (11.1% at R16).

How reliable are these statistics given the sample size?

61 matches is a thin profile sample; surface and favourite splits with n≥15 are the most trustworthy rows.

How does your model handle Ethan Quinn's surface and form swings?

It re-weights recent surface form and does not treat the career overall win rate as a constant prior when the year-by-year table shows large swings (notably the 2026 line at 42.9%).

Conclusion

Ethan Quinn at ATP #58 is a ranks-21–50 profile defined by 39.3% overall and Grass specialist edge (61.5%) vs Clay at 31.2%. The actionable reads are the surface table, the favourite conversion, the 2026 form line, and the round curve — not the ranking alone.

Watch the North American hard-court swing and any surface-specific weeks to confirm whether current form holds. For related mid-tier profiles, see Learner Tien and Terence Atmane.