Ethan Quinn: Clay specialist edge (50.0%) vs Hard at 34.6%

Ethan Quinn ranks 47 in the ATP (July 2026 snapshot) and has played 44 ATP main-draw matches in our database from 2023 to 2026. The headline number — 38.6% overall win rate — frames a clear mid-tier profile. The paradox worth betting on: Clay specialist edge (50.0%) vs Hard at 34.6%.

Thin-sample note: fewer than 40 ATP main-draw matches in the analysis window. Treat surface, odds-role, and H2H splits as directional, not definitive.

Key metrics at a glance

Metric	Value
Overall win rate	38.6%
ATP rank (snapshot)	47
Matches analysed	44 (2023–2026)
Best surface	Clay — 50.0%
Weakest surface	Hard — 34.6%
Grand Slam win rate	50.0% (5–5)
As favourite	66.7% (n=3)
As underdog	33.3% (n=9)

Quinn's year-by-year record

Year	Matches	Wins	Win rate
2023	1	0	0.0%
2024	2	0	0.0%
2025	30	12	40.0%
2026	11	5	45.5%

Win rate by season, Ethan Quinn, 2023–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Year-to-year movement shows where the market should update fastest. Peak and trough seasons above are the primary form anchors for live pricing — not a single career average.

Surface breakdown: where the edge lives

Surface	Matches	Win rate
Clay	8	50.0%
Grass	4	50.0%
Hard	26	34.6%
Indoors	6	33.3%

Win rate by surface, Ethan Quinn, 2023–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Surface is the first filter before round or opponent quality. Compare clay baselines in the clay-court betting guide and grass patterns in the grass-court specificity guide when translating these rates into match previews.

Tournament tier: reliability by event level

Tournament level	Matches	Win rate
Grand Slam	10	50.0%
Masters 1000	15	33.3%
ATP 500	5	40.0%
ATP 250	14	35.7%

Win rate by tournament tier, Ethan Quinn, 2023–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Grand Slam and Masters samples matter most for pricing; ATP 250/500 volume often inflates or deflates the headline win rate. Cross-check against Tommy Paul or Francisco Cerundolo for other ranks-21–50 archetypes.

Round-by-round: early rounds vs deep runs

Round	Matches	Win rate
1R	33	42.4%
2R	8	37.5%
3R	3	0.0%

Win rate by round, Ethan Quinn, 2023–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Round curves separate true closers from early-round specialists. A drop at QF/SF is a fade signal even when the overall win rate looks healthy — the same structural idea as Rublev's late-round ceiling.

H2H against elite rivals

Rival	W–L	Win rate
—	—	Limited elite H2H in sample

Elite H2H is sparse for many mid-ranked players; only rows with multiple meetings are shown. Use these as matchup modifiers, not as a substitute for surface form.

Favourite vs underdog split

Role	Matches	Win rate
Favourite	3	66.7%
Underdog	9	33.3%

Favourite vs underdog win rate, Ethan Quinn, 2023–2026. Source: ATP match odds via tennispredictor.net

What the betting market misses about Ethan Quinn

Back Ethan Quinn when:

• on clay (50.0% over 8 matches)
• at Grand Slams (50.0% vs 38.6% overall)

Fade Ethan Quinn when:

• on hard (34.6%)

For live slate context, open the predictions dashboard rather than relying on a static profile alone.

How our model treats Ethan Quinn

The ensemble weights surface win-rate history, recent form (last 5 / last 10), and tournament-tier context most heavily for a rank-21–50 profile like this. Favourite/underdog conversion is a secondary prior when odds history is dense enough (here: 12 matches with usable prices). Uncertainty rises when the next match is on a thin-sample surface or against an elite rival with a one-sided H2H.

Frequently asked questions

What is Ethan Quinn's overall win rate in this study?

38.6% across 44 ATP main-draw matches from 2023 to 2026.

Which surface shows the highest win rate?

Clay at 50.0% (8 matches).

How often does Ethan Quinn win when installed as favourite?

66.7% over 3 favourite-priced matches in the cache (usable odds only).

How does Ethan Quinn perform at Grand Slams vs regular events?

Grand Slam win rate is 50.0% (5–5), versus 38.6% overall.

Who is Ethan Quinn's toughest matchup in the data?

Elite H2H sample is too thin for a single toughest-rival claim.

When is Ethan Quinn worth backing or fading based on this data?

Back when on clay (50.0% over 8 matches) / at Grand Slams (50.0% vs 38.6% overall). Fade when on hard (34.6%).

How reliable are these statistics given the sample size?

This is a thin sample (<40 matches) — directional only on fine splits.

How does your model handle Ethan Quinn's surface and form swings?

It re-weights recent surface form and does not treat the career overall win rate as a constant prior when the year-by-year table shows large swings.

Conclusion

Ethan Quinn at ATP #47 is a ranks-21–50 profile defined by 38.6% overall and Clay specialist edge (50.0%) vs Hard at 34.6%. The actionable reads are the surface table, the favourite conversion (66.7%), and the round curve — not the ranking alone.

Watch the next clay/hard swing and any deep-run weeks to confirm whether the 2023–2026 pattern still holds into the second half of 2026. For related mid-tier profiles, see Vacherot and Collignon.