Alejandro Tabilo: grass peak, Grand Slam floor, and the 2025 unravelling

Alejandro Tabilo has played 108 ATP matches from 2022 to 2025 at a 51.9% overall win rate. The Chilean left-hander is often framed as a clay-court athlete by nationality and game shape — but the data invert that story. Grass is his best surface at 61.5%, Grand Slams are his weakest tier at 33.3%, and a 2024 peak (58.7%, two titles) unravelled into a 41.4% 2025 season.

Key metrics at a glance

Metric	Value
Overall win rate	51.9%
Dataset rank (end of period)	~70–80 band
Matches analysed	108 (2022–2025)
Best surface	Grass — 61.5%
Worst surface	Indoors — 40.0%
Grand Slam win rate	33.3%
As favourite	65.9%
As underdog	39.2%

Tabilo's year-by-year record

Year	Matches	Wins	Win rate
2022	27	14	51.9%
2023	6	3	50.0%
2024	46	27	58.7%
2025	29	12	41.4%

Win rate by season, Alejandro Tabilo, 2022–2025. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

The shape is a clear peak-and-collapse. 2024 is the season the market still prices: 46 matches, 58.7% win rate, titles at Auckland (hard) and Mallorca (grass). 2025 drops 17.3 percentage points to 41.4% over 29 matches — the weakest full-sample year in the window. The thin 2023 sample (6 matches) sits near 50% and should not be overweighted.

Surface breakdown: grass leads, clay is only average

Surface	Matches	Win rate
Grass	13	61.5%
Clay	46	52.2%
Hard	44	50.0%
Indoors	5	40.0%

Win rate by surface, Alejandro Tabilo, 2022–2025. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Grass at 61.5% (13 matches) is the standout — and it is not empty variance. The 2024 Mallorca title run (four wins culminating in the final) and a 60.0% Wimbledon record (3–2 across 5 matches) anchor the lawn signal. For broader grass-court context, see our grass court specificity guide.

Clay at 52.2% over 46 matches is barely above coin-flip — a poor fit for the “South American clay specialist” narrative. Hard is a clean 50.0% over 44 matches. Indoors (40.0%, 5 matches) is too thin to treat as structural, but directionally weak.

Compare this to a true clay specialist such as Francisco Cerundolo (60.4% clay) or the extreme clay/hard split in the Darderi analysis. Tabilo’s surface identity is closer to a grass-capable lefty than to a clay grinder.

Tournament tier: ATP 250 comfort, Grand Slam floor

Tournament level	Matches	Win rate
ATP 250	57	59.6%
Masters 1000	29	55.2%
Grand Slam	15	33.3%
ATP 500	7	14.3%

Win rate by tournament tier, Alejandro Tabilo, 2022–2025. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

ATP 250 events (59.6%) are where Tabilo converts. Auckland, Mallorca, and Chengdu finals all sit in this band. Masters 1000 at 55.2% over 29 matches is respectable relative to his overall average.

The Grand Slam figure — 33.3% over 15 matches — is the structural floor. Split by event:

Grand Slam	Matches	Win rate
Wimbledon	5	60.0%
French Open	3	33.3%
US Open	4	25.0%
Australian Open	3	0.0%

Wimbledon is the only Slam that looks like the grass player in the surface table. Hard-court Slams and Roland Garros drag the aggregate down. ATP 500 is a thin, ugly sample (1–6, 14.3%) — note the small n before over-interpreting.

Round-by-round: the quarter-final spike

Round	Matches	Win rate
R1	42	50.0%
R2	15	46.7%
R3	6	33.3%
R16	22	45.5%
QF	10	80.0%
SF	8	62.5%
Final	5	60.0%

Win rate by round, Alejandro Tabilo, 2022–2025. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Early rounds are ordinary. The distinctive pattern is the QF spike to 80.0% (8–2 from 10) and solid SF/F conversion once he is deep in a draw. That is the inverse of players such as Andrey Rublev, whose profile is defined by a mid-draw ceiling. When Tabilo reaches a quarter-final — typically at ATP 250 level — he has historically finished the job more often than not (3 titles from 5 finals).

H2H against notable rivals

Opponent	Record	H2H win rate
Fritz	0–4	0.0%
Djokovic	2–1	66.7%
Darderi	2–1	66.7%
Zverev	0–2	0.0%
Paul	0–2	0.0%
Ruud	0–2	0.0%
Dimitrov	0–2	0.0%

The 0–4 record against Taylor Fritz is the clearest negative H2H in the sample. The 2–1 mark against Djokovic is the opposite surprise — small sample, but directionally notable when markets price Tabilo as a heavy underdog in that matchup. Against a cluster of top-20 regulars (Zverev, Paul, Ruud, Dimitrov) he is a combined 0–8 across those four names.

As market favourite vs underdog

Win rate as market favourite vs underdog, Alejandro Tabilo, 2022–2025. Raw tournament cache. Source: tennispredictor.net

As favourite (44 matches): 65.9%. As underdog (51 matches): 39.2%. The favourite conversion is usable but not elite; the underdog rate is respectable for a sub-55% overall player and better than extreme underdog liabilities in the wider study. Markets are roughly calibrated — when they make him favourite at a 250, he usually delivers; when they make him a dog against elite hard-court players, he usually loses.

What the betting market misses about Tabilo

Grass is the real surface edge. 61.5% overall on grass and 60.0% at Wimbledon conflict with clay-country stereotypes. Mallorca 2024 is the proof-of-concept week. Compare the grass premium to patterns in the Bublik analysis — different styles, same lesson: do not price South American or “clay-body” labels over the surface table.

Grand Slam hard courts are a fade zone. Australian Open 0–3 and US Open 25.0% pull the Slam aggregate to 33.3%. Short-priced Tabilo in Melbourne or New York early rounds has been a poor historical bet relative to ATP 250 pricing.

The 2025 form discount is mandatory. A drop from 58.7% to 41.4% is not noise at 29 matches. Any model or market still anchored to 2024 title narrative is late.

Back him when he reaches QFs at 250s. 80.0% QF conversion and 60.0% finals are the late-round story — the opposite of a “can’t close” profile.

How our model treats Tabilo

1. Grass uplift — 61.5% grass rate and Wimbledon split apply a positive surface adjustment on lawn
2. Grand Slam hard discount — 33.3% Slam aggregate, especially AO/USO, pulls probability down at majors on hard
3. 2025 form window — last-5 / last-10 rolling features reflect the 41.4% season and reduce baseline confidence vs 2024 peaks
4. Fritz H2H override — 0–4 is a strong negative matchup signal when that pairing appears
5. Uncertainty — grass sample is only 13 matches; indoors 5 matches; ATP 500 sample is tiny

For how surface and form features enter the broader engine, see how AI predicts tennis.

Frequently asked questions

What is Tabilo's overall win rate?

51.9% across 108 ATP matches from 2022 to 2025. Peak season was 2024 at 58.7%; 2025 fell to 41.4%.

Which surface shows the highest win rate?

Grass at 61.5% over 13 matches — ahead of clay (52.2%) and hard (50.0%). The Mallorca title and Wimbledon 60.0% support the lawn signal.

How often does Tabilo lose when installed as favourite?

He wins 65.9% as favourite (44 matches), so he loses roughly one in three favourite starts. That is usable but not a short-price lock profile.

How does Tabilo perform at Grand Slams vs regular events?

Grand Slams sit at 33.3% (15 matches) versus 59.6% at ATP 250 level. Wimbledon (60.0%) is the Slam exception; hard-court majors drag the aggregate down.

Who is Tabilo's toughest matchup in the data?

Taylor Fritz at 0–4. He is also 0–2 against each of Zverev, Paul, Ruud, and Dimitrov.

When is Tabilo worth backing or fading?

Back him on grass (especially 250s and Wimbledon weeks) and when he reaches QFs at ATP 250s. Fade him as a short-priced favourite at hard-court Grand Slams and whenever 2024 title narrative is still baked into the price after the 2025 drop.

How reliable are these statistics given the sample size?

108 matches is a mid-size sample: solid for overall and clay/hard splits, thinner for grass (13) and indoors (5). Year-by-year 2023 (6 matches) should be treated cautiously. Patterns that repeat across Mallorca, Wimbledon, and the QF table are more trustworthy than single-surface footnotes.

How does your model handle Tabilo's grass vs clay reputation gap?

It weights observed surface win rates over nationality stereotypes. Clay does not receive a specialist boost; grass does when sample confidence allows.

Conclusion

Tabilo’s betting identity is three numbers: 61.5% grass, 33.3% Grand Slams, and 41.4% in 2025. The market still half-remembers the 2024 title year; the data say price the lawn weeks up, the hard-court majors down, and the current form window honestly.

Watch the next grass swing for confirmation that the Mallorca/Wimbledon signal still holds after the 2025 reset — and treat clay weeks as roughly break-even, not automatic value, despite the Chilean label.

Live match probabilities for Tabilo and the rest of the tour are on the predictions dashboard.

---

For another grass-capable profile with a sharp surface split, see the Bublik analysis. For clay-specialist contrast, see Cerundolo and Darderi.

All statistics sourced from ATP match data 2022–2025 via tournament cache. ATP Tour events only. Odds role rates use matches with available bookmaker odds.