Alejandro Tabilo: Clay specialist edge (56.6%) vs Indoors at 40.0%

Alejandro Tabilo ranks 29 in the ATP (August 2026 snapshot) and has played 157 ATP main-draw matches in our database from 2022–2026. The headline number — 52.9% overall win rate — frames a clear mid-tier profile, but the 55.1% mark in 2026 (49 matches) shows a live uptick. The paradox worth betting on: Clay specialist edge (56.6%) vs Indoors at 40.0%.

Key metrics at a glance

Metric	Value
Overall win rate	52.9%
ATP rank (snapshot)	29
Matches analysed	157 (2022–2026)
Best surface	Clay — 56.6%
Weakest surface	Indoors — 40.0%
Grand Slam win rate	38.1% (8–13)
As favourite	59.6% (n=52)
As underdog	43.1% (n=65)

Tabilo's year-by-year record

Year	Matches	Wins	Win rate
2022	27	14	51.9%
2023	6	3	50.0%
2024	46	27	58.7%
2025	29	12	41.4%
2026	49	27	55.1%

Win rate by season, Alejandro Tabilo, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Year-to-year movement shows where the market should update fastest. The Clay edge vs Indoors floor and the year table are the primary form anchors for live pricing — not a single career average.

Surface breakdown: where the edge lives

Surface	Matches	Win rate
Clay	76	56.6%
Hard	60	50.0%
Grass	16	50.0%
Indoors	5	40.0%

Win rate by surface, Alejandro Tabilo, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Surface is the first filter before round or opponent quality. Compare clay baselines in the clay-court betting guide and grass patterns in the grass-court specificity guide when translating these rates into match previews.

Tournament tier: reliability by event level

Tournament level	Matches	Win rate
ATP 500	30	56.7%
ATP 250	63	55.6%
Masters 1000	43	53.5%
Grand Slam	21	38.1%

Win rate by tournament tier, Alejandro Tabilo, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Grand Slam and Masters samples matter most for pricing; ATP 250/500 volume often inflates or deflates the headline win rate. Cross-check against Francisco Cerundolo or Jaume Munar for other ranks-21–50 archetypes.

Round-by-round: early rounds vs deep runs

Round	Matches	Win rate
R1	59	55.9%
R2	24	45.8%
R3	10	40.0%
R16	32	46.9%
QF	15	73.3%
SF	11	54.5%
F	6	50.0%

Win rate by round, Alejandro Tabilo, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Round curves separate true closers from early-round specialists. Use the drop from early rounds into deeper stages as a fade signal even when the overall win rate looks acceptable — the same structural idea as Rublev's late-round ceiling.

H2H against elite rivals

Rival	W–L	Win rate
Majchrzak	3–1	75.0%
Fritz	0–4	0.0%
Darderi	2–2	50.0%
Baez	1–2	33.3%
Djokovic	2–1	66.7%

Elite H2H is sparse for many mid-ranked players; only rows with multiple meetings are shown. Use these as matchup modifiers, not as a substitute for surface form.

Favourite vs underdog split

Role	Matches	Win rate
Favourite	52	59.6%
Underdog	65	43.1%

Favourite vs underdog win rate, Alejandro Tabilo, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match odds via tennispredictor.net

What the betting market misses about Alejandro Tabilo

Back Alejandro Tabilo when:

• on clay (56.6% over 76 matches)
• when priced as favourite (59.6% conversion, n=52)
• in first-round spots (55.9% over 59 matches)
• during strong 2026 form (55.1% over 49 matches)

Fade Alejandro Tabilo when:

• on indoors (40.0%)
• in R3 or later (40.0% at R3)
• against top-tier opponents with repeated negative H2H (e.g. Fritz 0–4)

For live slate context, open the predictions dashboard rather than relying on a static profile alone.

How our model treats Alejandro Tabilo

The ensemble weights surface win-rate history, recent form (last 5 / last 10), and tournament-tier context most heavily for a rank-21–50 profile like this. Favourite/underdog conversion is a secondary prior when odds history is dense enough (here: 117 matches with usable prices). Uncertainty rises when the next match is on indoors or in a deep-draw round where Tabilo's historical conversion collapses.

Frequently asked questions

What is Alejandro Tabilo's overall win rate in this study?

52.9% across 157 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026.

Which surface shows the highest win rate?

Clay at 56.6% (76 matches).

How often does Alejandro Tabilo win when installed as favourite?

59.6% over 52 favourite-priced matches in the cache (usable odds only).

How does Alejandro Tabilo perform at Grand Slams vs regular events?

Grand Slam win rate is 38.1% (8–13), versus 52.9% overall.

Who is Alejandro Tabilo's toughest matchup in the data?

Among repeated elite meetings: Fritz (0–4).

When is Alejandro Tabilo worth backing or fading based on this data?

Back when on clay (56.6% over 76 matches) / when priced as favourite (59.6% conversion, n=52) / in first-round spots (55.9% over 59 matches). Fade when on indoors (40.0%) / in R3 or later (40.0% at R3).

How reliable are these statistics given the sample size?

157 matches is a standard profile sample; surface and favourite splits with n≥15 are the most trustworthy rows.

How does your model handle Alejandro Tabilo's surface and form swings?

It re-weights recent surface form and does not treat the career overall win rate as a constant prior when the year-by-year table shows large swings (notably the 2026 line at 55.1%).

Conclusion

Alejandro Tabilo at ATP #29 is a ranks-21–50 profile defined by 52.9% overall and Clay specialist edge (56.6%) vs Indoors at 40.0%. The actionable reads are the surface table, the favourite conversion, the 2026 form line, and the round curve — not the ranking alone.

Watch the North American hard-court swing and any surface-specific weeks to confirm whether current form holds. For related mid-tier profiles, see Francisco Cerundolo and Thiago Tirante.