Matteo Arnaldi: Clay specialist edge (54.5%) vs Indoors at 33.3%

Matteo Arnaldi ranks 34 in the ATP (July 2026 snapshot) and has played 122 ATP main-draw matches in our database from 2022 to 2026. The headline number — 47.5% overall win rate — frames a clear mid-tier profile. The paradox worth betting on: Clay specialist edge (54.5%) vs Indoors at 33.3%.

Key metrics at a glance

Metric	Value
Overall win rate	47.5%
ATP rank (snapshot)	34
Matches analysed	122 (2022–2026)
Best surface	Clay — 54.5%
Weakest surface	Indoors — 33.3%
Grand Slam win rate	47.8% (11–12)
As favourite	65.2% (n=46)
As underdog	32.7% (n=49)

Arnaldi's year-by-year record

Year	Matches	Wins	Win rate
2022	4	0	0.0%
2023	28	16	57.1%
2024	43	22	51.2%
2025	44	20	45.5%
2026	3	0	0.0%

Win rate by season, Matteo Arnaldi, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Year-to-year movement shows where the market should update fastest. Peak and trough seasons above are the primary form anchors for live pricing — not a single career average.

Surface breakdown: where the edge lives

Surface	Matches	Win rate
Clay	44	54.5%
Hard	63	47.6%
Indoors	9	33.3%
Grass	6	16.7%

Win rate by surface, Matteo Arnaldi, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Surface is the first filter before round or opponent quality. Compare clay baselines in the clay-court betting guide and grass patterns in the grass-court specificity guide when translating these rates into match previews.

Tournament tier: reliability by event level

Tournament level	Matches	Win rate
Grand Slam	23	47.8%
Masters 1000	46	50.0%
ATP 500	20	45.0%
ATP 250	33	45.5%

Win rate by tournament tier, Matteo Arnaldi, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Grand Slam and Masters samples matter most for pricing; ATP 250/500 volume often inflates or deflates the headline win rate. Cross-check against Tommy Paul or Francisco Cerundolo for other ranks-21–50 archetypes.

Round-by-round: early rounds vs deep runs

Round	Matches	Win rate
1R	76	52.6%
2R	24	50.0%
3R	10	40.0%
QF	7	28.6%
SF	2	0.0%
-	3	0.0%

Win rate by round, Matteo Arnaldi, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Round curves separate true closers from early-round specialists. A drop at QF/SF is a fade signal even when the overall win rate looks healthy — the same structural idea as Rublev's late-round ceiling.

H2H against elite rivals

Rival	W–L	Win rate
Medvedev	0–4	0.0%
Musetti	0–3	0.0%
Rublev	2–1	66.7%
Zverev	0–3	0.0%
Ruud	1–1	50.0%
Alcaraz	0–2	0.0%
Fritz	1–1	50.0%
Djokovic	1–1	50.0%

Elite H2H is sparse for many mid-ranked players; only rows with multiple meetings are shown. Use these as matchup modifiers, not as a substitute for surface form.

Favourite vs underdog split

Role	Matches	Win rate
Favourite	46	65.2%
Underdog	49	32.7%

Favourite vs underdog win rate, Matteo Arnaldi, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match odds via tennispredictor.net

What the betting market misses about Matteo Arnaldi

Back Matteo Arnaldi when:

• on clay (54.5% over 44 matches)
• when priced as favourite (65.2% conversion, n=46)

Fade Matteo Arnaldi when:

• on indoors (33.3%)
• as underdog (32.7%, n=49)

For live slate context, open the predictions dashboard rather than relying on a static profile alone.

How our model treats Matteo Arnaldi

The ensemble weights surface win-rate history, recent form (last 5 / last 10), and tournament-tier context most heavily for a rank-21–50 profile like this. Favourite/underdog conversion is a secondary prior when odds history is dense enough (here: 95 matches with usable prices). Uncertainty rises when the next match is on a thin-sample surface or against an elite rival with a one-sided H2H.

Frequently asked questions

What is Matteo Arnaldi's overall win rate in this study?

47.5% across 122 ATP main-draw matches from 2022 to 2026.

Which surface shows the highest win rate?

Clay at 54.5% (44 matches).

How often does Matteo Arnaldi win when installed as favourite?

65.2% over 46 favourite-priced matches in the cache (usable odds only).

How does Matteo Arnaldi perform at Grand Slams vs regular events?

Grand Slam win rate is 47.8% (11–12), versus 47.5% overall.

Who is Matteo Arnaldi's toughest matchup in the data?

Among repeated elite meetings: Medvedev (0–4).

When is Matteo Arnaldi worth backing or fading based on this data?

Back when on clay (54.5% over 44 matches) / when priced as favourite (65.2% conversion, n=46). Fade when on indoors (33.3%) / as underdog (32.7%, n=49).

How reliable are these statistics given the sample size?

122 matches is a standard profile sample; surface and favourite splits with n≥15 are the most trustworthy rows.

How does your model handle Matteo Arnaldi's surface and form swings?

It re-weights recent surface form and does not treat the career overall win rate as a constant prior when the year-by-year table shows large swings.

Conclusion

Matteo Arnaldi at ATP #34 is a ranks-21–50 profile defined by 47.5% overall and Clay specialist edge (54.5%) vs Indoors at 33.3%. The actionable reads are the surface table, the favourite conversion (65.2%), and the round curve — not the ranking alone.

Watch the next clay/hard swing and any deep-run weeks to confirm whether the 2022–2026 pattern still holds into the second half of 2026. For related mid-tier profiles, see Vacherot and Collignon.