Matteo Arnaldi: reliable favourite conversion at 69.8%

Matteo Arnaldi ranks 34 in the ATP (August 2026 snapshot) and has played 147 ATP main-draw matches in our database from 2022–2026. The headline number — 49.0% overall win rate — frames a clear mid-tier profile, but the 50.0% mark in 2026 (28 matches) shows a live uptick. The paradox worth betting on: reliable favourite conversion at 69.8%.

Key metrics at a glance

Metric	Value
Overall win rate	49.0%
ATP rank (snapshot)	34
Matches analysed	147 (2022–2026)
Best surface	Clay — 58.7%
Weakest surface	Grass — 12.5%
Grand Slam win rate	53.3% (16–14)
As favourite	69.8% (n=53)
As underdog	31.5% (n=54)

Arnaldi's year-by-year record

Year	Matches	Wins	Win rate
2022	4	0	0.0%
2023	28	16	57.1%
2024	43	22	51.2%
2025	44	20	45.5%
2026	28	14	50.0%

Win rate by season, Matteo Arnaldi, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Year-to-year movement shows where the market should update fastest. The favourite conversion at 69.8% and the year table are the primary form anchors for live pricing — not a single career average.

Surface breakdown: where the edge lives

Surface	Matches	Win rate
Hard	67	46.3%
Clay	63	58.7%
Indoors	9	33.3%
Grass	8	12.5%

Win rate by surface, Matteo Arnaldi, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Surface is the first filter before round or opponent quality. Compare clay baselines in the clay-court betting guide and grass patterns in the grass-court specificity guide when translating these rates into match previews.

Tournament tier: reliability by event level

Tournament level	Matches	Win rate
Grand Slam	30	53.3%
ATP 250	24	50.0%
Masters 1000	51	49.0%
ATP 500	42	45.2%

Win rate by tournament tier, Matteo Arnaldi, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Grand Slam and Masters samples matter most for pricing; ATP 250/500 volume often inflates or deflates the headline win rate. Cross-check against Tommy Paul or Francisco Cerundolo for other ranks-21–50 archetypes.

Round-by-round: early rounds vs deep runs

Round	Matches	Win rate
R1	65	55.4%
R2	29	55.2%
R3	14	42.9%
R16	22	45.5%
QF	10	40.0%
SF	4	0.0%

Win rate by round, Matteo Arnaldi, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Round curves separate true closers from early-round specialists. Use the drop from early rounds into deeper stages as a fade signal even when the overall win rate looks acceptable — the same structural idea as Rublev's late-round ceiling.

H2H against elite rivals

Rival	W–L	Win rate
Medvedev	0–4	0.0%
Cobolli	1–3	25.0%
Musetti	0–4	0.0%
Munar	2–2	50.0%
Tiafoe	3–1	75.0%

Elite H2H is sparse for many mid-ranked players; only rows with multiple meetings are shown. Use these as matchup modifiers, not as a substitute for surface form.

Favourite vs underdog split

Role	Matches	Win rate
Favourite	53	69.8%
Underdog	54	31.5%

Favourite vs underdog win rate, Matteo Arnaldi, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match odds via tennispredictor.net

What the betting market misses about Matteo Arnaldi

Back Matteo Arnaldi when:

• on clay (58.7% over 63 matches)
• when priced as favourite (69.8% conversion, n=53)
• in first-round spots (55.4% over 65 matches)
• during strong 2026 form (50.0% over 28 matches)

Fade Matteo Arnaldi when:

• on grass (12.5%)
• against top-tier opponents with repeated negative H2H (e.g. Medvedev 0–4)

For live slate context, open the predictions dashboard rather than relying on a static profile alone.

How our model treats Matteo Arnaldi

The ensemble weights surface win-rate history, recent form (last 5 / last 10), and tournament-tier context most heavily for a rank-21–50 profile like this. Favourite/underdog conversion is a secondary prior when odds history is dense enough (here: 107 matches with usable prices). Uncertainty rises when the next match is on grass or in a deep-draw round where Arnaldi's historical conversion collapses.

Frequently asked questions

What is Matteo Arnaldi's overall win rate in this study?

49.0% across 147 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026.

Which surface shows the highest win rate?

Clay at 58.7% (63 matches).

How often does Matteo Arnaldi win when installed as favourite?

69.8% over 53 favourite-priced matches in the cache (usable odds only).

How does Matteo Arnaldi perform at Grand Slams vs regular events?

Grand Slam win rate is 53.3% (16–14), versus 49.0% overall.

Who is Matteo Arnaldi's toughest matchup in the data?

Among repeated elite meetings: Medvedev (0–4).

When is Matteo Arnaldi worth backing or fading based on this data?

Back when on clay (58.7% over 63 matches) / when priced as favourite (69.8% conversion, n=53) / in first-round spots (55.4% over 65 matches). Fade when on grass (12.5%) / against top-tier opponents with repeated negative H2H (e.g. Medvedev 0–4).

How reliable are these statistics given the sample size?

147 matches is a standard profile sample; surface and favourite splits with n≥15 are the most trustworthy rows.

How does your model handle Matteo Arnaldi's surface and form swings?

It re-weights recent surface form and does not treat the career overall win rate as a constant prior when the year-by-year table shows large swings (notably the 2026 line at 50.0%).

Conclusion

Matteo Arnaldi at ATP #34 is a ranks-21–50 profile defined by 49.0% overall and reliable favourite conversion at 69.8%. The actionable reads are the surface table, the favourite conversion, the 2026 form line, and the round curve — not the ranking alone.

Watch the North American hard-court swing and any surface-specific weeks to confirm whether current form holds. For related mid-tier profiles, see Lorenzo Musetti and Flavio Cobolli.