Matteo Berrettini: Grass specialist edge (75.0%) vs Indoors at 50.0%

Matteo Berrettini ranks 43 in the ATP (July 2026 snapshot) and has played 142 ATP main-draw matches in our database from 2022 to 2026. The headline number — 62.0% overall win rate — frames a clear mid-tier profile. The paradox worth betting on: Grass specialist edge (75.0%) vs Indoors at 50.0%.

Key metrics at a glance

Metric	Value
Overall win rate	62.0%
ATP rank (snapshot)	43
Matches analysed	142 (2022–2026)
Best surface	Grass — 75.0%
Weakest surface	Indoors — 50.0%
Grand Slam win rate	64.0% (16–9)
As favourite	74.0% (n=77)
As underdog	37.9% (n=29)

Berrettini's year-by-year record

Year	Matches	Wins	Win rate
2022	37	27	73.0%
2023	21	10	47.6%
2024	35	25	71.4%
2025	38	20	52.6%
2026	11	6	54.5%

Win rate by season, Matteo Berrettini, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Year-to-year movement shows where the market should update fastest. Peak and trough seasons above are the primary form anchors for live pricing — not a single career average.

Surface breakdown: where the edge lives

Surface	Matches	Win rate
Grass	24	75.0%
Clay	38	73.7%
Hard	66	53.0%
Indoors	12	50.0%
Unknown	2	50.0%

Win rate by surface, Matteo Berrettini, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Surface is the first filter before round or opponent quality. Compare clay baselines in the clay-court betting guide and grass patterns in the grass-court specificity guide when translating these rates into match previews.

Tournament tier: reliability by event level

Tournament level	Matches	Win rate
Grand Slam	25	64.0%
Masters 1000	37	45.9%
ATP 500	24	62.5%
ATP 250	56	71.4%

Win rate by tournament tier, Matteo Berrettini, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Grand Slam and Masters samples matter most for pricing; ATP 250/500 volume often inflates or deflates the headline win rate. Cross-check against Tommy Paul or Francisco Cerundolo for other ranks-21–50 archetypes.

Round-by-round: early rounds vs deep runs

Round	Matches	Win rate
1R	78	64.1%
2R	20	55.0%
3R	9	55.6%
QF	18	50.0%
SF	9	88.9%
F	8	62.5%

Win rate by round, Matteo Berrettini, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Round curves separate true closers from early-round specialists. A drop at QF/SF is a fade signal even when the overall win rate looks healthy — the same structural idea as Rublev's late-round ceiling.

H2H against elite rivals

Rival	W–L	Win rate
Rune	1–5	16.7%
Ruud	0–4	0.0%
De Minaur	2–2	50.0%
Alcaraz	1–2	33.3%
Musetti	1–2	33.3%
Zverev	2–1	66.7%
Tsitsipas	1–2	33.3%
Sinner	0–2	0.0%

Elite H2H is sparse for many mid-ranked players; only rows with multiple meetings are shown. Use these as matchup modifiers, not as a substitute for surface form.

Favourite vs underdog split

Role	Matches	Win rate
Favourite	77	74.0%
Underdog	29	37.9%

Favourite vs underdog win rate, Matteo Berrettini, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match odds via tennispredictor.net

What the betting market misses about Matteo Berrettini

Back Matteo Berrettini when:

• on grass (75.0% over 24 matches)
• when priced as favourite (74.0% conversion, n=77)

Fade Matteo Berrettini when:

• on indoors (50.0%)
• as underdog (37.9%, n=29)

For live slate context, open the predictions dashboard rather than relying on a static profile alone.

How our model treats Matteo Berrettini

The ensemble weights surface win-rate history, recent form (last 5 / last 10), and tournament-tier context most heavily for a rank-21–50 profile like this. Favourite/underdog conversion is a secondary prior when odds history is dense enough (here: 106 matches with usable prices). Uncertainty rises when the next match is on a thin-sample surface or against an elite rival with a one-sided H2H.

Frequently asked questions

What is Matteo Berrettini's overall win rate in this study?

62.0% across 142 ATP main-draw matches from 2022 to 2026.

Which surface shows the highest win rate?

Grass at 75.0% (24 matches).

How often does Matteo Berrettini win when installed as favourite?

74.0% over 77 favourite-priced matches in the cache (usable odds only).

How does Matteo Berrettini perform at Grand Slams vs regular events?

Grand Slam win rate is 64.0% (16–9), versus 62.0% overall.

Who is Matteo Berrettini's toughest matchup in the data?

Among repeated elite meetings: Ruud (0–4).

When is Matteo Berrettini worth backing or fading based on this data?

Back when on grass (75.0% over 24 matches) / when priced as favourite (74.0% conversion, n=77). Fade when on indoors (50.0%) / as underdog (37.9%, n=29).

How reliable are these statistics given the sample size?

142 matches is a standard profile sample; surface and favourite splits with n≥15 are the most trustworthy rows.

How does your model handle Matteo Berrettini's surface and form swings?

It re-weights recent surface form and does not treat the career overall win rate as a constant prior when the year-by-year table shows large swings.

Conclusion

Matteo Berrettini at ATP #43 is a ranks-21–50 profile defined by 62.0% overall and Grass specialist edge (75.0%) vs Indoors at 50.0%. The actionable reads are the surface table, the favourite conversion (74.0%), and the round curve — not the ranking alone.

Watch the next clay/hard swing and any deep-run weeks to confirm whether the 2022–2026 pattern still holds into the second half of 2026. For related mid-tier profiles, see Vacherot and Collignon.