Matteo Berrettini: reliable favourite conversion at 73.4%

Matteo Berrettini ranks 42 in the ATP (August 2026 snapshot) and has played 164 ATP main-draw matches in our database from 2022–2026. The headline number — 61.6% overall win rate — frames a clear mid-tier profile, but the 57.6% mark in 2026 (33 matches) is the current form anchor. The paradox worth betting on: reliable favourite conversion at 73.4%.

Key metrics at a glance

Metric	Value
Overall win rate	61.6%
ATP rank (snapshot)	42
Matches analysed	164 (2022–2026)
Best surface	Grass — 74.1%
Weakest surface	Indoors — 50.0%
Grand Slam win rate	66.7% (22–11)
As favourite	73.4% (n=79)
As underdog	52.6% (n=38)

Berrettini's year-by-year record

Year	Matches	Wins	Win rate
2022	37	27	73.0%
2023	21	10	47.6%
2024	35	25	71.4%
2025	38	20	52.6%
2026	33	19	57.6%

Win rate by season, Matteo Berrettini, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Year-to-year movement shows where the market should update fastest. The favourite conversion at 73.4% and the year table are the primary form anchors for live pricing — not a single career average.

Surface breakdown: where the edge lives

Surface	Matches	Win rate
Hard	69	52.2%
Clay	54	70.4%
Grass	27	74.1%
Indoors	12	50.0%
Unknown	2	50.0%

Win rate by surface, Matteo Berrettini, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Surface is the first filter before round or opponent quality. Compare clay baselines in the clay-court betting guide and grass patterns in the grass-court specificity guide when translating these rates into match previews.

Tournament tier: reliability by event level

Tournament level	Matches	Win rate
ATP 500	52	69.2%
ATP 250	34	67.6%
Grand Slam	33	66.7%
Masters 1000	45	44.4%

Win rate by tournament tier, Matteo Berrettini, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Grand Slam and Masters samples matter most for pricing; ATP 250/500 volume often inflates or deflates the headline win rate. Cross-check against Tommy Paul or Francisco Cerundolo for other ranks-21–50 archetypes.

Round-by-round: early rounds vs deep runs

Round	Matches	Win rate
R1	56	66.1%
R2	25	60.0%
R3	12	58.3%
R16	34	58.8%
QF	20	45.0%
SF	9	88.9%
F	8	62.5%

Win rate by round, Matteo Berrettini, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Round curves separate true closers from early-round specialists. Use the drop from early rounds into deeper stages as a fade signal even when the overall win rate looks acceptable — the same structural idea as Rublev's late-round ceiling.

H2H against elite rivals

Rival	W–L	Win rate
Rune	1–5	16.7%
Ruud	0–4	0.0%
Murray	2–2	50.0%
Sonego	3–1	75.0%
De Minaur	2–2	50.0%

Elite H2H is sparse for many mid-ranked players; only rows with multiple meetings are shown. Use these as matchup modifiers, not as a substitute for surface form.

Favourite vs underdog split

Role	Matches	Win rate
Favourite	79	73.4%
Underdog	38	52.6%

Favourite vs underdog win rate, Matteo Berrettini, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match odds via tennispredictor.net

What the betting market misses about Matteo Berrettini

Back Matteo Berrettini when:

• on grass (74.1% over 27 matches)
• when priced as favourite (73.4% conversion, n=79)
• in first-round spots (66.1% over 56 matches)

Fade Matteo Berrettini when:

• on indoors (50.0%)
• in QF or later (45.0% at QF)
• against top-tier opponents with repeated negative H2H (e.g. Ruud 0–4)

For live slate context, open the predictions dashboard rather than relying on a static profile alone.

How our model treats Matteo Berrettini

The ensemble weights surface win-rate history, recent form (last 5 / last 10), and tournament-tier context most heavily for a rank-21–50 profile like this. Favourite/underdog conversion is a secondary prior when odds history is dense enough (here: 117 matches with usable prices). Uncertainty rises when the next match is on indoors or in a deep-draw round where Berrettini's historical conversion collapses.

Frequently asked questions

What is Matteo Berrettini's overall win rate in this study?

61.6% across 164 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026.

Which surface shows the highest win rate?

Grass at 74.1% (27 matches).

How often does Matteo Berrettini win when installed as favourite?

73.4% over 79 favourite-priced matches in the cache (usable odds only).

How does Matteo Berrettini perform at Grand Slams vs regular events?

Grand Slam win rate is 66.7% (22–11), versus 61.6% overall.

Who is Matteo Berrettini's toughest matchup in the data?

Among repeated elite meetings: Ruud (0–4).

When is Matteo Berrettini worth backing or fading based on this data?

Back when on grass (74.1% over 27 matches) / when priced as favourite (73.4% conversion, n=79) / in first-round spots (66.1% over 56 matches). Fade when on indoors (50.0%) / in QF or later (45.0% at QF).

How reliable are these statistics given the sample size?

164 matches is a standard profile sample; surface and favourite splits with n≥15 are the most trustworthy rows.

How does your model handle Matteo Berrettini's surface and form swings?

It re-weights recent surface form and does not treat the career overall win rate as a constant prior when the year-by-year table shows large swings (notably the 2026 line at 57.6%).

Conclusion

Matteo Berrettini at ATP #42 is a ranks-21–50 profile defined by 61.6% overall and reliable favourite conversion at 73.4%. The actionable reads are the surface table, the favourite conversion, the 2026 form line, and the round curve — not the ranking alone.

Watch the North American hard-court swing and any surface-specific weeks to confirm whether current form holds. For related mid-tier profiles, see Lorenzo Musetti and Jan-Lennard Struff.