Jan-Lennard Struff: Clay specialist edge (59.1%) vs Hard at 25.0%

Jan-Lennard Struff ranks 41 in the ATP (July 2026 snapshot) and has played 125 ATP main-draw matches in our database from 2022 to 2026. The headline number — 47.2% overall win rate — frames a clear mid-tier profile. The paradox worth betting on: Clay specialist edge (59.1%) vs Hard at 25.0%.

Key metrics at a glance

Metric	Value
Overall win rate	47.2%
ATP rank (snapshot)	41
Matches analysed	125 (2022–2026)
Best surface	Clay — 59.1%
Weakest surface	Hard — 25.0%
Grand Slam win rate	43.5% (10–13)
As favourite	67.4% (n=43)
As underdog	40.7% (n=59)

Struff's year-by-year record

Year	Matches	Wins	Win rate
2022	13	3	23.1%
2023	28	16	57.1%
2024	42	25	59.5%
2025	35	14	40.0%
2026	7	1	14.3%

Win rate by season, Jan-Lennard Struff, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Year-to-year movement shows where the market should update fastest. Peak and trough seasons above are the primary form anchors for live pricing — not a single career average.

Surface breakdown: where the edge lives

Surface	Matches	Win rate
Clay	44	59.1%
Grass	26	57.7%
Indoors	15	53.3%
Hard	40	25.0%

Win rate by surface, Jan-Lennard Struff, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Surface is the first filter before round or opponent quality. Compare clay baselines in the clay-court betting guide and grass patterns in the grass-court specificity guide when translating these rates into match previews.

Tournament tier: reliability by event level

Tournament level	Matches	Win rate
Grand Slam	23	43.5%
Masters 1000	39	48.7%
ATP 500	18	27.8%
ATP 250	45	55.6%

Win rate by tournament tier, Jan-Lennard Struff, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Grand Slam and Masters samples matter most for pricing; ATP 250/500 volume often inflates or deflates the headline win rate. Cross-check against Tommy Paul or Francisco Cerundolo for other ranks-21–50 archetypes.

Round-by-round: early rounds vs deep runs

Round	Matches	Win rate
1R	83	45.8%
2R	16	62.5%
3R	8	37.5%
QF	11	36.4%
SF	4	75.0%
F	3	33.3%

Win rate by round, Jan-Lennard Struff, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Round curves separate true closers from early-round specialists. A drop at QF/SF is a fade signal even when the overall win rate looks healthy — the same structural idea as Rublev's late-round ceiling.

H2H against elite rivals

Rival	W–L	Win rate
Tsitsipas	2–3	40.0%
Alcaraz	0–4	0.0%
De Minaur	1–2	33.3%
Sinner	0–3	0.0%
Medvedev	0–3	0.0%
Ruud	1–1	50.0%
Rune	2–0	100.0%

Elite H2H is sparse for many mid-ranked players; only rows with multiple meetings are shown. Use these as matchup modifiers, not as a substitute for surface form.

Favourite vs underdog split

Role	Matches	Win rate
Favourite	43	67.4%
Underdog	59	40.7%

Favourite vs underdog win rate, Jan-Lennard Struff, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match odds via tennispredictor.net

What the betting market misses about Jan-Lennard Struff

Back Jan-Lennard Struff when:

• on clay (59.1% over 44 matches)
• when priced as favourite (67.4% conversion, n=43)

Fade Jan-Lennard Struff when:

• on hard (25.0%)

For live slate context, open the predictions dashboard rather than relying on a static profile alone.

How our model treats Jan-Lennard Struff

The ensemble weights surface win-rate history, recent form (last 5 / last 10), and tournament-tier context most heavily for a rank-21–50 profile like this. Favourite/underdog conversion is a secondary prior when odds history is dense enough (here: 102 matches with usable prices). Uncertainty rises when the next match is on a thin-sample surface or against an elite rival with a one-sided H2H.

Frequently asked questions

What is Jan-Lennard Struff's overall win rate in this study?

47.2% across 125 ATP main-draw matches from 2022 to 2026.

Which surface shows the highest win rate?

Clay at 59.1% (44 matches).

How often does Jan-Lennard Struff win when installed as favourite?

67.4% over 43 favourite-priced matches in the cache (usable odds only).

How does Jan-Lennard Struff perform at Grand Slams vs regular events?

Grand Slam win rate is 43.5% (10–13), versus 47.2% overall.

Who is Jan-Lennard Struff's toughest matchup in the data?

Among repeated elite meetings: Alcaraz (0–4).

When is Jan-Lennard Struff worth backing or fading based on this data?

Back when on clay (59.1% over 44 matches) / when priced as favourite (67.4% conversion, n=43). Fade when on hard (25.0%).

How reliable are these statistics given the sample size?

125 matches is a standard profile sample; surface and favourite splits with n≥15 are the most trustworthy rows.

How does your model handle Jan-Lennard Struff's surface and form swings?

It re-weights recent surface form and does not treat the career overall win rate as a constant prior when the year-by-year table shows large swings.

Conclusion

Jan-Lennard Struff at ATP #41 is a ranks-21–50 profile defined by 47.2% overall and Clay specialist edge (59.1%) vs Hard at 25.0%. The actionable reads are the surface table, the favourite conversion (67.4%), and the round curve — not the ranking alone.

Watch the next clay/hard swing and any deep-run weeks to confirm whether the 2022–2026 pattern still holds into the second half of 2026. For related mid-tier profiles, see Vacherot and Collignon.