Jan-Lennard Struff: reliable favourite conversion at 65.3%

Jan-Lennard Struff ranks 43 in the ATP (August 2026 snapshot) and has played 150 ATP main-draw matches in our database from 2022–2026. The headline number — 48.0% overall win rate — frames a clear mid-tier profile, but the 43.8% mark in 2026 (32 matches) is the current form anchor. The paradox worth betting on: reliable favourite conversion at 65.3%.

Key metrics at a glance

Metric	Value
Overall win rate	48.0%
ATP rank (snapshot)	43
Matches analysed	150 (2022–2026)
Best surface	Grass — 59.5%
Weakest surface	Hard — 25.6%
Grand Slam win rate	50.0% (15–15)
As favourite	65.3% (n=49)
As underdog	40.6% (n=64)

Struff's year-by-year record

Year	Matches	Wins	Win rate
2022	13	3	23.1%
2023	28	16	57.1%
2024	42	25	59.5%
2025	35	14	40.0%
2026	32	14	43.8%

Win rate by season, Jan-Lennard Struff, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Year-to-year movement shows where the market should update fastest. The favourite conversion at 65.3% and the year table are the primary form anchors for live pricing — not a single career average.

Surface breakdown: where the edge lives

Surface	Matches	Win rate
Clay	55	56.4%
Hard	43	25.6%
Grass	37	59.5%
Indoors	15	53.3%

Win rate by surface, Jan-Lennard Struff, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Surface is the first filter before round or opponent quality. Compare clay baselines in the clay-court betting guide and grass patterns in the grass-court specificity guide when translating these rates into match previews.

Tournament tier: reliability by event level

Tournament level	Matches	Win rate
Grand Slam	30	50.0%
Masters 1000	45	48.9%
ATP 250	25	48.0%
ATP 500	50	46.0%

Win rate by tournament tier, Jan-Lennard Struff, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Grand Slam and Masters samples matter most for pricing; ATP 250/500 volume often inflates or deflates the headline win rate. Cross-check against Tommy Paul or Francisco Cerundolo for other ranks-21–50 archetypes.

Round-by-round: early rounds vs deep runs

Round	Matches	Win rate
R1	74	50.0%
R2	22	50.0%
R3	9	44.4%
R16	26	46.2%
QF	12	33.3%
SF	4	75.0%
F	3	33.3%

Win rate by round, Jan-Lennard Struff, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Round curves separate true closers from early-round specialists. Use the drop from early rounds into deeper stages as a fade signal even when the overall win rate looks acceptable — the same structural idea as Rublev's late-round ceiling.

H2H against elite rivals

Rival	W–L	Win rate
Bublik	3–5	37.5%
Tsitsipas	2–3	40.0%
Alcaraz	0–4	0.0%
Van De Zandschulp	2–2	50.0%
Medvedev	1–3	25.0%

Elite H2H is sparse for many mid-ranked players; only rows with multiple meetings are shown. Use these as matchup modifiers, not as a substitute for surface form.

Favourite vs underdog split

Role	Matches	Win rate
Favourite	49	65.3%
Underdog	64	40.6%

Favourite vs underdog win rate, Jan-Lennard Struff, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match odds via tennispredictor.net

What the betting market misses about Jan-Lennard Struff

Back Jan-Lennard Struff when:

• on grass (59.5% over 37 matches)
• when priced as favourite (65.3% conversion, n=49)
• in first-round spots (50.0% over 74 matches)

Fade Jan-Lennard Struff when:

• on hard (25.6%)
• in QF or later (33.3% at QF)
• against top-tier opponents with repeated negative H2H (e.g. Alcaraz 0–4)

For live slate context, open the predictions dashboard rather than relying on a static profile alone.

How our model treats Jan-Lennard Struff

The ensemble weights surface win-rate history, recent form (last 5 / last 10), and tournament-tier context most heavily for a rank-21–50 profile like this. Favourite/underdog conversion is a secondary prior when odds history is dense enough (here: 113 matches with usable prices). Uncertainty rises when the next match is on hard or in a deep-draw round where Struff's historical conversion collapses.

Frequently asked questions

What is Jan-Lennard Struff's overall win rate in this study?

48.0% across 150 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026.

Which surface shows the highest win rate?

Grass at 59.5% (37 matches).

How often does Jan-Lennard Struff win when installed as favourite?

65.3% over 49 favourite-priced matches in the cache (usable odds only).

How does Jan-Lennard Struff perform at Grand Slams vs regular events?

Grand Slam win rate is 50.0% (15–15), versus 48.0% overall.

Who is Jan-Lennard Struff's toughest matchup in the data?

Among repeated elite meetings: Alcaraz (0–4).

When is Jan-Lennard Struff worth backing or fading based on this data?

Back when on grass (59.5% over 37 matches) / when priced as favourite (65.3% conversion, n=49) / in first-round spots (50.0% over 74 matches). Fade when on hard (25.6%) / in QF or later (33.3% at QF).

How reliable are these statistics given the sample size?

150 matches is a standard profile sample; surface and favourite splits with n≥15 are the most trustworthy rows.

How does your model handle Jan-Lennard Struff's surface and form swings?

It re-weights recent surface form and does not treat the career overall win rate as a constant prior when the year-by-year table shows large swings (notably the 2026 line at 43.8%).

Conclusion

Jan-Lennard Struff at ATP #43 is a ranks-21–50 profile defined by 48.0% overall and reliable favourite conversion at 65.3%. The actionable reads are the surface table, the favourite conversion, the 2026 form line, and the round curve — not the ranking alone.

Watch the North American hard-court swing and any surface-specific weeks to confirm whether current form holds. For related mid-tier profiles, see Alexander Zverev and Matteo Berrettini.