Daniel Merida Aguilar: 64.3% form line in 2026 (28 matches)

Daniel Merida Aguilar ranks 40 in the ATP (August 2026 snapshot) and has played 28 ATP main-draw matches in our database from 2022–2026. The headline number — 64.3% overall win rate — frames a clear mid-tier profile, but the 64.3% mark in 2026 (28 matches) is the current form anchor. The paradox worth betting on: 64.3% form line in 2026 (28 matches). The sample is still thin but publishable (28 matches) — treat deep splits cautiously.

Key metrics at a glance

Metric	Value
Overall win rate	64.3%
ATP rank (snapshot)	40
Matches analysed	28 (2022–2026)
Best surface	Hard — 66.7%
Weakest surface	Grass — 50.0%
Grand Slam win rate	33.3% (1–2)
As favourite	100.0% (n=3)
As underdog	45.5% (n=11)

Merida Aguilar's year-by-year record

Year	Matches	Wins	Win rate
2026	28	18	64.3%

Win rate by season, Daniel Merida Aguilar, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Year-to-year movement shows where the market should update fastest. The 2026 form at 64.3% and the year table are the primary form anchors for live pricing — not a single career average.

Surface breakdown: where the edge lives

Surface	Matches	Win rate
Clay	17	64.7%
Hard	9	66.7%
Grass	2	50.0%

Win rate by surface, Daniel Merida Aguilar, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Surface is the first filter before round or opponent quality. Compare clay baselines in the clay-court betting guide and grass patterns in the grass-court specificity guide when translating these rates into match previews.

Tournament tier: reliability by event level

Tournament level	Matches	Win rate
ATP 500	5	100.0%
Masters 1000	13	61.5%
ATP 250	7	57.1%
Grand Slam	3	33.3%

Win rate by tournament tier, Daniel Merida Aguilar, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Grand Slam and Masters samples matter most for pricing; ATP 250/500 volume often inflates or deflates the headline win rate. Cross-check against Jaume Munar or Francisco Cerundolo for other ranks-21–50 archetypes.

Round-by-round: early rounds vs deep runs

Round	Matches	Win rate
R1	11	54.5%
R2	4	75.0%
R3	3	33.3%
R16	3	100.0%
QF	3	66.7%
SF	2	100.0%
F	2	50.0%

Win rate by round, Daniel Merida Aguilar, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Round curves separate true closers from early-round specialists. Use the drop from early rounds into deeper stages as a fade signal even when the overall win rate looks acceptable — the same structural idea as Rublev's late-round ceiling.

H2H against elite rivals

Rival	W–L	Win rate
Michelsen	1–1	50.0%
Droguet	2–0	100.0%
Shelton	0–2	0.0%

Elite H2H is sparse for many mid-ranked players; only rows with multiple meetings are shown. Use these as matchup modifiers, not as a substitute for surface form.

Favourite vs underdog split

Role	Matches	Win rate
Favourite	3	100.0%
Underdog	11	45.5%

Favourite vs underdog win rate, Daniel Merida Aguilar, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match odds via tennispredictor.net

What the betting market misses about Daniel Merida Aguilar

Back Daniel Merida Aguilar when:

• on hard (66.7% over 9 matches)
• in first-round spots (54.5% over 11 matches)
• during strong 2026 form (64.3% over 28 matches)

Fade Daniel Merida Aguilar when:

• on grass (50.0%)

For live slate context, open the predictions dashboard rather than relying on a static profile alone.

How our model treats Daniel Merida Aguilar

The ensemble weights surface win-rate history, recent form (last 5 / last 10), and tournament-tier context most heavily for a rank-21–50 profile like this. Favourite/underdog conversion is a secondary prior when odds history is dense enough (here: 14 matches with usable prices). Uncertainty rises when the next match is on grass or in a deep-draw round where Merida Aguilar's historical conversion collapses.

Frequently asked questions

What is Daniel Merida Aguilar's overall win rate in this study?

64.3% across 28 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026.

Which surface shows the highest win rate?

Hard at 66.7% (9 matches).

How often does Daniel Merida Aguilar win when installed as favourite?

100.0% over 3 favourite-priced matches in the cache (usable odds only).

How does Daniel Merida Aguilar perform at Grand Slams vs regular events?

Grand Slam win rate is 33.3% (1–2), versus 64.3% overall.

Who is Daniel Merida Aguilar's toughest matchup in the data?

Among repeated elite meetings: Shelton (0–2).

When is Daniel Merida Aguilar worth backing or fading based on this data?

Back when on hard (66.7% over 9 matches) / in first-round spots (54.5% over 11 matches) / during strong 2026 form (64.3% over 28 matches). Fade when on grass (50.0%).

How reliable are these statistics given the sample size?

28 matches is a thin profile sample; surface and favourite splits with n≥15 are the most trustworthy rows.

How does your model handle Daniel Merida Aguilar's surface and form swings?

It re-weights recent surface form and does not treat the career overall win rate as a constant prior when the year-by-year table shows large swings (notably the 2026 line at 64.3%).

Conclusion

Daniel Merida Aguilar at ATP #40 is a ranks-21–50 profile defined by 64.3% overall and 64.3% form line in 2026 (28 matches). The actionable reads are the surface table, the favourite conversion, the 2026 form line, and the round curve — not the ranking alone.

Watch the North American hard-court swing and any surface-specific weeks to confirm whether current form holds. For related mid-tier profiles, see Ignacio Buse and Thiago Tirante.