Cameron Norrie: reliable favourite conversion at 73.5%

Cameron Norrie ranks 35 in the ATP (August 2026 snapshot) and has played 244 ATP main-draw matches in our database from 2022–2026. The headline number — 58.6% overall win rate — frames a clear mid-tier profile, but the 51.3% mark in 2026 (39 matches) is the current form anchor. The paradox worth betting on: reliable favourite conversion at 73.5%.

Key metrics at a glance

Metric	Value
Overall win rate	58.6%
ATP rank (snapshot)	35
Matches analysed	244 (2022–2026)
Best surface	Clay — 60.3%
Weakest surface	Grass — 53.6%
Grand Slam win rate	64.7% (33–18)
As favourite	73.5% (n=117)
As underdog	41.2% (n=68)

Norrie's year-by-year record

Year	Matches	Wins	Win rate
2022	69	48	69.6%
2023	46	27	58.7%
2024	32	16	50.0%
2025	58	32	55.2%
2026	39	20	51.3%

Win rate by season, Cameron Norrie, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Year-to-year movement shows where the market should update fastest. The favourite conversion at 73.5% and the year table are the primary form anchors for live pricing — not a single career average.

Surface breakdown: where the edge lives

Surface	Matches	Win rate
Hard	114	58.8%
Clay	78	60.3%
Grass	28	53.6%
Indoors	24	58.3%

Win rate by surface, Cameron Norrie, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Surface is the first filter before round or opponent quality. Compare clay baselines in the clay-court betting guide and grass patterns in the grass-court specificity guide when translating these rates into match previews.

Tournament tier: reliability by event level

Tournament level	Matches	Win rate
ATP 250	41	65.9%
Grand Slam	51	64.7%
ATP 500	73	54.8%
Masters 1000	79	54.4%

Win rate by tournament tier, Cameron Norrie, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Grand Slam and Masters samples matter most for pricing; ATP 250/500 volume often inflates or deflates the headline win rate. Cross-check against Tommy Paul or Francisco Cerundolo for other ranks-21–50 archetypes.

Round-by-round: early rounds vs deep runs

Round	Matches	Win rate
R1	70	62.9%
R2	48	72.9%
R3	27	44.4%
R16	50	56.0%
QF	28	46.4%
SF	13	61.5%
F	8	37.5%

Win rate by round, Cameron Norrie, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Round curves separate true closers from early-round specialists. Use the drop from early rounds into deeper stages as a fade signal even when the overall win rate looks acceptable — the same structural idea as Rublev's late-round ceiling.

H2H against elite rivals

Rival	W–L	Win rate
Alcaraz	3–5	37.5%
Medvedev	1–4	20.0%
Djokovic	0–5	0.0%
De Minaur	2–3	40.0%
Kecmanovic	3–1	75.0%

Elite H2H is sparse for many mid-ranked players; only rows with multiple meetings are shown. Use these as matchup modifiers, not as a substitute for surface form.

Favourite vs underdog split

Role	Matches	Win rate
Favourite	117	73.5%
Underdog	68	41.2%

Favourite vs underdog win rate, Cameron Norrie, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match odds via tennispredictor.net

What the betting market misses about Cameron Norrie

Back Cameron Norrie when:

• on clay (60.3% over 78 matches)
• when priced as favourite (73.5% conversion, n=117)
• in first-round spots (62.9% over 70 matches)

Fade Cameron Norrie when:

• on grass (53.6%)
• in R3 or later (44.4% at R3)
• against top-tier opponents with repeated negative H2H (e.g. Djokovic 0–5)

For live slate context, open the predictions dashboard rather than relying on a static profile alone.

How our model treats Cameron Norrie

The ensemble weights surface win-rate history, recent form (last 5 / last 10), and tournament-tier context most heavily for a rank-21–50 profile like this. Favourite/underdog conversion is a secondary prior when odds history is dense enough (here: 185 matches with usable prices). Uncertainty rises when the next match is on grass or in a deep-draw round where Norrie's historical conversion collapses.

Frequently asked questions

What is Cameron Norrie's overall win rate in this study?

58.6% across 244 ATP main-draw matches from 2022–2026.

Which surface shows the highest win rate?

Clay at 60.3% (78 matches).

How often does Cameron Norrie win when installed as favourite?

73.5% over 117 favourite-priced matches in the cache (usable odds only).

How does Cameron Norrie perform at Grand Slams vs regular events?

Grand Slam win rate is 64.7% (33–18), versus 58.6% overall.

Who is Cameron Norrie's toughest matchup in the data?

Among repeated elite meetings: Djokovic (0–5).

When is Cameron Norrie worth backing or fading based on this data?

Back when on clay (60.3% over 78 matches) / when priced as favourite (73.5% conversion, n=117) / in first-round spots (62.9% over 70 matches). Fade when on grass (53.6%) / in R3 or later (44.4% at R3).

How reliable are these statistics given the sample size?

244 matches is a standard profile sample; surface and favourite splits with n≥15 are the most trustworthy rows.

How does your model handle Cameron Norrie's surface and form swings?

It re-weights recent surface form and does not treat the career overall win rate as a constant prior when the year-by-year table shows large swings (notably the 2026 line at 51.3%).

Conclusion

Cameron Norrie at ATP #35 is a ranks-21–50 profile defined by 58.6% overall and reliable favourite conversion at 73.5%. The actionable reads are the surface table, the favourite conversion, the 2026 form line, and the round curve — not the ranking alone.

Watch the North American hard-court swing and any surface-specific weeks to confirm whether current form holds. For related mid-tier profiles, see Ugo Humbert and Brandon Nakashima.