Cameron Norrie: reliable favourite conversion at 73.3%

Cameron Norrie ranks 38 in the ATP (July 2026 snapshot) and has played 220 ATP main-draw matches in our database from 2022 to 2026. The headline number — 59.5% overall win rate — frames a clear mid-tier profile. The paradox worth betting on: reliable favourite conversion at 73.3%.

Key metrics at a glance

Metric	Value
Overall win rate	59.5%
ATP rank (snapshot)	38
Matches analysed	220 (2022–2026)
Best surface	Clay — 63.6%
Weakest surface	Hard — 57.7%
Grand Slam win rate	67.3% (33–16)
As favourite	73.3% (n=116)
As underdog	41.5% (n=65)

Norrie's year-by-year record

Year	Matches	Wins	Win rate
2022	69	48	69.6%
2023	46	27	58.7%
2024	32	16	50.0%
2025	58	32	55.2%
2026	15	8	53.3%

Win rate by season, Cameron Norrie, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Year-to-year movement shows where the market should update fastest. Peak and trough seasons above are the primary form anchors for live pricing — not a single career average.

Surface breakdown: where the edge lives

Surface	Matches	Win rate
Clay	66	63.6%
Indoors	24	58.3%
Hard	104	57.7%
Grass	26	57.7%

Win rate by surface, Cameron Norrie, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Surface is the first filter before round or opponent quality. Compare clay baselines in the clay-court betting guide and grass patterns in the grass-court specificity guide when translating these rates into match previews.

Tournament tier: reliability by event level

Tournament level	Matches	Win rate
Grand Slam	49	67.3%
Masters 1000	69	52.2%
ATP 500	39	48.7%
ATP 250	63	68.3%

Win rate by tournament tier, Cameron Norrie, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Grand Slam and Masters samples matter most for pricing; ATP 250/500 volume often inflates or deflates the headline win rate. Cross-check against Tommy Paul or Francisco Cerundolo for other ranks-21–50 archetypes.

Round-by-round: early rounds vs deep runs

Round	Matches	Win rate
1R	106	61.3%
2R	43	76.7%
3R	25	40.0%
QF	26	46.2%
SF	12	66.7%
F	8	37.5%

Win rate by round, Cameron Norrie, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Round curves separate true closers from early-round specialists. A drop at QF/SF is a fade signal even when the overall win rate looks healthy — the same structural idea as Rublev's late-round ceiling.

H2H against elite rivals

Rival	W–L	Win rate
Alcaraz	3–5	37.5%
Medvedev	1–4	20.0%
Djokovic	0–5	0.0%
Rune	3–1	75.0%
Rublev	2–2	50.0%
De Minaur	1–2	33.3%
Ruud	1–2	33.3%
Musetti	1–2	33.3%

Elite H2H is sparse for many mid-ranked players; only rows with multiple meetings are shown. Use these as matchup modifiers, not as a substitute for surface form.

Favourite vs underdog split

Role	Matches	Win rate
Favourite	116	73.3%
Underdog	65	41.5%

Favourite vs underdog win rate, Cameron Norrie, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match odds via tennispredictor.net

What the betting market misses about Cameron Norrie

Back Cameron Norrie when:

• on clay (63.6% over 66 matches)
• when priced as favourite (73.3% conversion, n=116)
• at Grand Slams (67.3% vs 59.5% overall)

Fade Cameron Norrie when:

• on hard (57.7%)

For live slate context, open the predictions dashboard rather than relying on a static profile alone.

How our model treats Cameron Norrie

The ensemble weights surface win-rate history, recent form (last 5 / last 10), and tournament-tier context most heavily for a rank-21–50 profile like this. Favourite/underdog conversion is a secondary prior when odds history is dense enough (here: 181 matches with usable prices). Uncertainty rises when the next match is on a thin-sample surface or against an elite rival with a one-sided H2H.

Frequently asked questions

What is Cameron Norrie's overall win rate in this study?

59.5% across 220 ATP main-draw matches from 2022 to 2026.

Which surface shows the highest win rate?

Clay at 63.6% (66 matches).

How often does Cameron Norrie win when installed as favourite?

73.3% over 116 favourite-priced matches in the cache (usable odds only).

How does Cameron Norrie perform at Grand Slams vs regular events?

Grand Slam win rate is 67.3% (33–16), versus 59.5% overall.

Who is Cameron Norrie's toughest matchup in the data?

Among repeated elite meetings: Djokovic (0–5).

When is Cameron Norrie worth backing or fading based on this data?

Back when on clay (63.6% over 66 matches) / when priced as favourite (73.3% conversion, n=116). Fade when on hard (57.7%).

How reliable are these statistics given the sample size?

220 matches is a standard profile sample; surface and favourite splits with n≥15 are the most trustworthy rows.

How does your model handle Cameron Norrie's surface and form swings?

It re-weights recent surface form and does not treat the career overall win rate as a constant prior when the year-by-year table shows large swings.

Conclusion

Cameron Norrie at ATP #38 is a ranks-21–50 profile defined by 59.5% overall and reliable favourite conversion at 73.3%. The actionable reads are the surface table, the favourite conversion (73.3%), and the round curve — not the ranking alone.

Watch the next clay/hard swing and any deep-run weeks to confirm whether the 2022–2026 pattern still holds into the second half of 2026. For related mid-tier profiles, see Vacherot and Collignon.