Nuno Borges: 64.1% favourite conversion vs a fourth-round cliff (26.3%)

Nuno Borges ranks 47 in the ATP (August 2026 snapshot) and has played 176 ATP main-draw matches in our database from 2022 to 2026. The headline number — 49.4% overall win rate — sits near break-even, but the 54.9% mark in 2026 (51 matches) shows a live uptick. The paradox worth betting on: 64.1% favourite conversion paired with a 26.3% fourth-round win rate.

Key metrics at a glance

Metric	Value
Overall win rate	49.4%
ATP rank (snapshot)	47
Matches analysed	176 (2022–2026)
Best surface	Clay — 53.6%
Weakest surface	Grass — 42.3%
Grand Slam win rate	52.6% (20–18)
As favourite	64.1% (n=39)
As underdog	44.2% (n=77)

Borges's year-by-year record

Year	Matches	Wins	Win rate
2022	10	4	40.0%
2023	19	5	26.3%
2024	38	20	52.6%
2025	58	30	51.7%
2026	51	28	54.9%

Win rate by season, Nuno Borges, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Year-to-year movement shows where the market should update fastest. The 26.3% trough in 2023, the 2024–2025 rebound, and the 54.9% 2026 run are the primary form anchors for live pricing — not a single career average.

Surface breakdown: where the edge lives

Surface	Matches	Win rate
Clay	56	53.6%
Hard	85	49.4%
Grass	26	42.3%
Indoors	9	44.4%

Win rate by surface, Nuno Borges, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Surface is the first filter before round or opponent quality. Compare clay baselines in the clay-court betting guide and grass patterns in the grass-court specificity guide when translating these rates into match previews.

Tournament tier: reliability by event level

Tournament level	Matches	Win rate
ATP 250	50	54.0%
Grand Slam	38	52.6%
Masters 1000	46	45.7%
ATP 500	42	45.2%

Win rate by tournament tier, Nuno Borges, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Grand Slam and Masters samples matter most for pricing; ATP 250/500 volume often inflates or deflates the headline win rate. Cross-check against Tommy Paul or Francisco Cerundolo for other ranks-21–50 archetypes.

Round-by-round: early rounds vs deep runs

Round	Matches	Win rate
R1	84	61.9%
R2	27	51.9%
R3	13	46.2%
R16	38	26.3%
QF	10	30.0%
SF	3	33.3%
F	1	100.0%

Win rate by round, Nuno Borges, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match data via tennispredictor.net

Round curves separate true closers from early-round specialists. The drop from 61.9% in R1 to 26.3% at R16 is a fade signal even when the overall win rate looks acceptable — the same structural idea as Rublev's late-round ceiling.

H2H against elite rivals

Rival	W–L	Win rate
Medvedev	0–4	0.0%
Rublev	1–5	16.7%
Rune	1–2	33.3%
Ruud	1–2	33.3%
Cerundolo	2–1	66.7%

Elite H2H is sparse for many mid-ranked players; only rows with multiple meetings are shown. Use these as matchup modifiers, not as a substitute for surface form.

Favourite vs underdog split

Role	Matches	Win rate
Favourite	39	64.1%
Underdog	77	44.2%

Favourite vs underdog win rate, Nuno Borges, 2022–2026. Source: ATP match odds via tennispredictor.net

What the betting market misses about Nuno Borges

Back Nuno Borges when:

• on clay (53.6% over 56 matches)
• when priced as favourite (64.1% conversion, n=39)
• in first-round spots (61.9% over 84 matches)
• during strong 2026 form (54.9% over 51 matches)

Fade Nuno Borges when:

• on grass (42.3%)
• in R16 or later (26.3% at R16, 30.0% at QF)
• against top-tier opponents with repeated negative H2H (e.g. Medvedev 0–4)

For live slate context, open the predictions dashboard rather than relying on a static profile alone.

How our model treats Nuno Borges

The ensemble weights surface win-rate history, recent form (last 5 / last 10), and tournament-tier context most heavily for a rank-21–50 profile like this. Favourite/underdog conversion is a secondary prior when odds history is dense enough (here: 116 matches with usable prices). Uncertainty rises when the next match is on grass or in a deep-draw round where Borges's historical conversion collapses.

Frequently asked questions

What is Nuno Borges's overall win rate in this study?

49.4% across 176 ATP main-draw matches from 2022 to 2026.

Which surface shows the highest win rate?

Clay at 53.6% (56 matches).

How often does Nuno Borges win when installed as favourite?

64.1% over 39 favourite-priced matches in the cache (usable odds only).

How does Nuno Borges perform at Grand Slams vs regular events?

Grand Slam win rate is 52.6% (20–18), versus 49.4% overall.

Who is Nuno Borges's toughest matchup in the data?

Among repeated elite meetings: Medvedev (0–4).

When is Nuno Borges worth backing or fading based on this data?

Back when on clay (53.6% over 56 matches) / when priced as favourite (64.1% conversion, n=39) / in R1 (61.9%). Fade when on grass (42.3%) or in R16+ (26.3% at R16).

How reliable are these statistics given the sample size?

176 matches is a standard profile sample; surface and favourite splits with n≥15 are the most trustworthy rows.

How does your model handle Nuno Borges's surface and form swings?

It re-weights recent surface form and does not treat the career overall win rate as a constant prior when the year-by-year table shows large swings (notably the 2023 trough at 26.3% and the 2026 rebound at 54.9%).

Conclusion

Nuno Borges at ATP #47 is a ranks-21–50 profile defined by 49.4% overall and reliable favourite conversion at 64.1% — but with a structural R16 cliff at 26.3%. The actionable reads are the surface table, the favourite conversion, the 2026 form line, and the round curve — not the ranking alone.

Watch the North American hard-court swing and any grass-tour weeks to confirm whether the 2026 uptick holds. For related mid-tier profiles, see Cameron Norrie and Tomas Martin Etcheverry.